Hi everyone. Haven't been active around for a long time. Been trying some other projects as well outside of roulette.
I would like to as though, is after 257 spins of flat betting (EC Bet Red/Black but on No-Zero Roullete) a +19 units considered as having an edge, or is it just normal distribution and could still be negative in the long(er) run?
Thanks for any replies in advance and have a nice day everyone :)
Hi,
Good question. I'd say it's random variance. The fact is that the odds cannot be changed.
All 257 bet results are independent and each has exactly 50% chance of winning.
Quote from: ati on Jun 07, 05:10 PM 2021All ... bet results are independent
I’ve yet to see proof of this
Yeah, it's a fact, not a proof. If I remember correctly, even Bayes said that you cannot prove independence.
Maybe one possible way to prove it, would be to collect every single number from a different source. It must have the same characteristics as a random sequence from the same source.
Priyanka said once that random has rules, and I agree with that. In a large enough sequence, a repeat on the 7th spin will always happen more often than a repeat on the 4th or on the 10th spin. Otherwise we could say that the sequence is not random. Does that mean that past results affect future outcomes? I say no, but I can't prove it.
Without dependence we cannot beat random. And we know that it's possible to create dependencies, but that's a whole different topic.