Here are some seeds of thought that will without doubt forever change the way you see roulette and the way you approach the game. It will impact on all areas of life.
From time to time I will add in some extra notes and get this snowball moving.
Mark Buchanan is a professional science writer based in the UK. His recent article in the excellent weekly Australian publication New Scientist titled Quantum Minds - the deep connection between Quantum Theory and human thought is a brilliant summary of the growing field of "Quantum Interaction" and how we are finding more and more ways to use our minds on many levels previously unknown.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb is an astonishing writer, market trader and academic who blows to shreds many earlier misunderstandings. This is the second edition of his book described by Fortune Magazine as one of the smartest books of all time time - some hype.
Fooled By Randomness -the hidden role of chance in life and in the markets.
The influence of these writers and the principles they discuss are modifying my approach to roulette, day by day.
Over the coming weeks before travel I will give some specific examples of this change of thought and no doubt over the coming months will add new detail and connections.
One very practical way to deal with the random realities is to be prepared to change rapidly.
I have had a saying for many years titled 'flying the flag of convenience". This was derived from my early fascination with the pirate adventures and the regular looting of Spanish galleons by the irascible buccaneer Robert Shaw before his karmic metamorphosis into a James Bond villain.
The topmast flag was regularly switched to fool the hapless French, British or Spanish vessels in the Caribbean. Only at the last minute would the true intent of the pirate ship be made clear. The element of surprise added to the thrills, spills and spoils.
This neat trick I have regularly used in my professional business life in order that my personality and my behaviour toward frequently errant contractors and sundry could not be easily read, and thus able to be predictable.
This kept others on their toes despite the downside risk of being labeled 'moody'. It pays to be unpredictable. The personality is after all only a mask.
On this note the application to writing, theory and application toward roulette is particularly appropriate.
What worked yesterday may not work today, and the professional needs to be lightning fast in switching. Same for traders.
The examples given in Nassim Taleb's book are remarkable and George Soros is the man of the man of the moment having doubled his formidable fortune this year by a big move on Gold.
You thus may find reading any of my threads, certain inconsistencies when reviewed over time. Thats par for the course with me.
Good Fortune
XXVV
Eye' Ay Captain!
:thumbsup:
Thanks man. I was given 'Black Swan' to read once by a 'mathematician' friend after discussing roulette with her once upon a time and never read it. I guess that's what you call irony. Strangely at the time I started reading it and found myself disagreeing with the general ideas being put forward. It's funny how we change. Three year's on and a read of a few articles and I find myself in agreement with his take on randomness. Now to dig that book out!
I believe that Nassim's work is critical in these increasingly turbulent times in order to see the world and its opportunities in a fresh light.
The nonsense and flawed arguments of many world leaders in various fields need to be fundamentally challenged so that better, more 'appropriate' ways of seeing things can unfold.
His work leaves the door open in many realms so no one need feel excluded or threatened, only those who pedal nonsense.
So on a personal level we can make changes in how we see and interpret our circumstances, and in a very specific sense we can adjust our methodologies and goals in the relatively controlled environment of the casino, or trading floor. However it seems the casino may be the simpler option.
Thats got to be good news.
Strongly recommend reviewing Nassim Taleb on youtube regarding many issues that face us including not being fooled by randomness and dealing with black swan events.
We are very fortunate to be witnessing the start of a new way of thinking; a tipping point is arriving where (hopefully) a host of parasites and inflated earning inefficient operatives will be tossed out by public demand.
Refer to :.globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com (link:://:.globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com) and in particular "the great bank robbery".
Article co written by Professor of Risk Engineering at NYU Nassim Nicholas Taleb. Please refer to his articles and current three books.
I particularly like his way of blending of great classical thinking into the present. To me that is the essence also of Great Art- always referenced and inter connected.
In some ways, if you listen to the brilliant Deepak Choprah we may have come a long way in 6000 years, and in others we have certainly not. We are approaching times of great choice and potential change. The key is always the 10% of society that push for new ways of thinking have a massive influence on the balance. Increasingly we are being provided with the tools to help. Knowledge is power.
Professor Taleb tells us when he wakes up every morning he admits he doesn't understand all that is unfolding in the complexities of world economics or world affairs. In the face of sometimes random outcomes, or apparently random outcomes, he takes actions to minimise risk damage and accentuate the positives that may emerge from extreme outcomes. It is that self honesty in the face of uncertainty that can actually lead to positive outcomes. Better that then deluded statements from false prophets or a dubious expert who may just be temporarily lucky in the pecking order brought about by short cycle random outcomes.
I am interested in the application of these principles in the relatively simple environment of the casino where with honesty and appropriate disciplined and intelligent application we can demonstrate relatively consistent success and take the benefits to a gradually wider circle of society.
Nevertheless within the roulette game we still have to deal with randomness. Lets be honest as a first step and say we actually know very little about this principle and our brains are not ( yet) well trained to be able to deal with this very different way of seeing outcomes.
More on this soon but the first step on the journey must begin with the individual and their choice of action.
Hi XXVV,
If you enjoyed "Fooled By Randomness", you'll probably also like the new book (link:://:.amazon.com/Thinking-Fast-Slow-Daniel-Kahneman/dp/0374275637) by Daniel Kahneman (nobel laureate in behavioural economics and guru on decision making under uncertainty). Due out in a couple of weeks.
Thanks Indeed.
I have just been reading Taleb's Black Swan.
It seems necessary for me to always read these books twice. There is such a lot to absorb.
Autobiography of Daniel Kahneman
access via Google.com and Nobel Prize
Inspirational.
Consider Ecart as Deviation and Equilibre as Balance.
Short term cycles offer examples of statistical deviation which are unusually high in comparison to the long term spread which sees a remarkable even distribution of these forces. This is the same force but in positive and negative mode.
We are interested in this relative/ statistical (not absolute/long term) Ecart of appearances such as in EC expressions ( red/black or high/ low or even/odd) but also in other expressions within roulette which are less obvious ( such as the distributions of win/ loss bets in D+C, or the range of expression within the distributions of Finales bets).
By shifting our attention to these areas we can find short cycles of waves which we can 'surf' to our advantage. At other times we can just sit on the beach and just wait for the signs of opportunities to arrive, for they surely will. This is a powerful human expression. Beachboys music takes on new meaning.
In human experience there can be deviations which shift to 7 places or more. An example of this is the extraordinary memory capacities of individuals who are not savants or autistic, ie they do not have other aspects of their behaviour distorted in any way, but they can have astonishing gifts in recall of detail.
Two parts of their brain have been expanded ( frontal lobe and inner deep memory centres) and the equivalent 'deviation' in scale in comparison to 'norm' brain capacities would produce individuals 11 feet tall or more.
This is one way life expands - not by gentle gradual shifts but by quantum leaps.
We are always amid such change and growth. Life may not always be as it appears at the surface. Change can be accelerated and our abilities to understand these principles are also growing.
One way to assist memory training is by clear attention and ordered reception of detail to link data by threads ( hence our love of narratives).
We are interested in the application of these ideas to professional play in roulette.
Waves are just one expression in nature that fascinate us for their beauty and mystery, yet their formidable power also which hints at so many levels in our creativity and our potential harnessing of this power.
In human experience there can be deviations which shift to 7 places or more. An example of this is the extraordinary memory capacities of individuals who are not savants or autistic, ie they do not have other aspects of their behaviour distorted in any way, but they can have astonishing gifts in recall of detail.
We are interested in the application of these ideas to professional play in roulette.
----Right on the nail...Reminds me of sameone I know well. :thumbsup: :thumbsup: :thumbsup: :thumbsup:
Well, this is something I'm also interested in - new ideas, especially trends. While I know it is proven that roulette cannot be beated, If I look at graphs even for ten thousands of spins, I can see a lot of trends, particulary on no zero roulette even chances, but I know that if there is positive trend in even chance, then while on normal roulette it loses, mild progression cannot lose, and there have to be more trends for positive progressions to work too. Random produces data which "seems" non-random for thousands of spins. So what we are up to is to control random itself. It seems like a crazy idea, so a system that catches long term trends IF there are some is what we should aim for and it should be enough for us.
I have just found an interesting PDF file with experimenetal system for financial markets and it seems promising. I will post it there just in case that it disappeared and also as a recommended reading for roulette programmers - this HAS to be coded, but it will not be that simple.
I suppose that the system would work ONLY if random produced some trend, so I want to make an adaptive metod and this would be only a part of it - something that adapts as random changes, but is ENOUGH complicated that it would be DIFFICULT for random to beat it.
Quote from: mr.ore on Oct 18, 01:52 PM 2011While I know it is proven that roulette cannot be beated...
No one that i know of has proved that outright, as who would bother. We call all see the plain-as-day emperical evidence in the game's overwhelming availability. And some of us still prefer to (re-)act out that needless "object lesson" in person, here and at the casinos. The only thing involved here is "the device", and that's the casinos'.
Neither has anyone began to 'explain' quantum science. Unlike the other sciences, e.g. Relativity, until that happens we will be left with the new-age science stuff. As with blackjack before Thorp, the crazy system sellers, to an extent Scarne for one, are destined to pop up.
Thanks for the comments.
please refer :.positscience.com/blog/2010/12/21/superior-autobiographical-memory-and-memory-bumps/ (link:://:.positscience.com/blog/2010/12/21/superior-autobiographical-memory-and-memory-bumps/)
Marilu Henner ( US actress in TAXI)
60 Minutes interview with Lesley Stahl and Marilu Henner 17 December 2010
Whenever we exhibit OCD signs ( and I know I have some of this because of my Architect training - obsessive with detail) this is an aspect of this same principle.
To order our thoughts and control our emotions is the sign of any true professional.
More Soon.
XXVV
@Mr. Ore, I just spent an hour reading through that PDF and my head is really spinning. If there's any way you could translate that for non-mathematicians I would be interested. For instance, what are the basic assertions? What is their working hypothesis?
@Mr Ore
Developing a methodology that followed a trend in roulette and with results which had better than a 47% error rate would be easier than working within the complex random financial markets where random is usually not beaten or even understood.
In fact the whole notion of 'beating' random is spurious.
Random variation within casino games is capped for practical purposes and in roulette, in which we specialise, the random variations are observed on specific bets quite happily by means of heuristic observation.
Given that we understand our bet and the characteristics of the bet we can work with relatively simple and calm precision to quite reasonably achieve 'consistent enough' success.
By 'consistent enough' I mean small gains in short cycles.
Such results can have their success amplified by astute money management.
I dont think roulette has to be over complicated by import of models that are transferred from very complex and very random markets which are often poorly understood ( please refer Nassim Taleb's works). I dont find a 47% or at best 40% error rate particularly inspiring and it certainly would not do for my own work.
As noted succinctly by Bayes recently, we can be grateful for the fixed parameters around casino games, and where the social misunderstanding of 'gambling' in such places camouflages to our advantage, the opportunities therein.
Quote from: XXVV on Oct 19, 08:42 PM 2011
As noted succinctly by Bayes recently, we can be grateful for the fixed parameters around casino games, and where the social misunderstanding of 'gambling' in such places camouflages to our advantage, the opportunities therein.
Well said.
Quote from: XXVV on Oct 19, 08:42 PM 2011
Developing a methodology that followed a trend in roulette and with results which had better than a 47% error rate would be easier than working within the complex random financial markets where random is usually not beaten or even understood.
Overcoming randomness still won't help you with the stock-markets, which aren't random. As with roulette, it's the big players who consistently come out ahead. And aren't the banks a lot like the casinos, on many levels?
And yes, they do a rather good job of "camouflaging" themselves under their veils of "good-intentioned" authority. To the point that the "little guys" want to ever such perpetuate their stereotypically pecuniary life-styles. I wonder if those "executives" stop to think either, what difference is it really going to make, that additional million, or two, a year of which they've become too-greedy to ever spend; as the poor guy who "gets hot" one night ends up even further in debt than before.
Thanks Garnabby. It is fascinating however ' the tilt ' you have put upon this context.
#1. Its pretty fundamental but wherever did you think that market behaviour was not random? Unexpected events can bring about the most extraordinary outcomes to perplex us all. Are you prepared to comment upon the likely state of the Footsie. and your super-fund status given the most probable defaults ahead within Europe, notably Greece. Portugal, Spain and Italy. Who would have thought this year Iceland's economy would be the most booming in Europe after what happened in 2008? Yet can you make sense of what the Finance Minister of that troublesome volcanic island has to say? There is little rational control over these vagaries.
#2. Flawed also is your comment regarding the 'big players consistently coming out ahead'. By what standard or research do you make such an assertion. Small wins add and can be compounded without attention. Why do you disregard such strategies. Big winners can be big losers tomorrow. Small losses are much easier to manage.
The camouflage that is referred to is of course that of the smart 'small win' player, but of course that is all relative and depends on context. Casinos Austria based in Vienna have a remarkably enlightened attitude to 'big' winners and on some tables in private rooms have no table limits. A win of 100,000 EUR would not be a problem but can you imagine the local small private provincial casino handling that? You would be crazy to expose yourself to such attention.
Casinos Austria prosper because they understand the risk: reward ratios. More often than not they will recover the big payouts, with interest.
What I refer to is modest, 'small' but frequent wins, that can be privately compounded through astute management. It is not complex and need not draw attention.
The 'new ways of thinking' are intended to demonstrate that the casinos are actually better controlled, policed, and handled than the financial markets which periodically go into unpredictable behaviour because of the wider range of random extremes from the 'real world' to which they are exposed. Casinos are protected from such. Thus we are welcomed as long as we act appropriately.
The professional behaviour, knowledge and skill to which I constantly refer is the antithesis of the wretched 'gambler' 'poor guy' to which you refer. That is so what not to do.
This will be my last post for a while as I am about to embark on a several month international campaign of professional casino play.
Hopefully will add to the New Ideas in several weeks.
Good Hunting XXVV
Quote from: GARNabby on Oct 21, 09:30 PM 2011
Overcoming randomness still won't help you with the stock-markets, which aren't random.
I disagree. There have been quite a few studies on this, and although there are disagreements among "experts", the evidence seems to point to markets largely following a random walk. This (link:://mytechnews.tripod.com/efringe/stockwiz.htm) is only anecdotal evidence, but interesting nonetheless, especially if you're considering paying for the services of a financial expert.
Recent business amongst the EQ activity in Christchurch, New Zealand has introduced me to some remarkable people who are looking at making this city a very special place. It has the opportunity to re-build in new ways on all levels.
Over the next few months while working here I will illustrate some of these ideas but first, after listening to the famous Australian Entrepreneur Dick Smith, and now reading Richard Branson's thoughts after he visited here recently, the warning bells are ringing for a fresh look at business and a fresh look at money.
Consider the work of Nobel Peace Prize winner Muhammad Yunus and the famous Grameen Bank, the fore runner of the wave of micro banking now heading our way.
Grameen means village, and on a market level we can choose to be faceless and abstract like Wall Street, or instead like the traditional markets meet face to face to conduct business, social business, and buy/ sell food and trade with one another to assist one another on all levels.
There are other options than the supermarket and it seems the pendulum is now swinging to enable more of our true and finer human qualities to come to the fore in social business, as a parallel to just money making business. See the rise of the farmers markets. They work on many levels.
We can choose to invest in the social stock market where values and causes rate higher than just profit alone.
There is a period of change coming where many old ways will be added to, to enrich life for all. Sometimes it takes a disaster to provide the opportunity for change. Also we may need to 'head north' in order to travel south. Refer to :.slowmoney.org (link:://:.slowmoney.org) and :.worldofpossibilities.org (link:://:.worldofpossibilities.org)
Just so we can look at our areas of interest with fresh eyes and see new ways of thinking.
It may also be necessary to slow down in order to improve our quality of life. Choices in extreme can be white noise.
More soon. Best XXVV
Several posts have been removed because they zoned into an area well covered in other sections of this forum. The intention of this thread is to explore in a very broad sense new ways of thinking which may or may not impact upon professional roulette play. Hence references to Economics and new Banking models as well as Business that goes beyond simple making money for its own sake.
In a constantly expanding market it is easy to make money. Not so in a changing world scene where a wider range of human values and skills can and need to be applied. Questions are arising as to the validity of current economic and business models, as growth as previously known may stall.
Such refreshing thinking and changing vistas on the global scale can be applied to the micro study of business and perhaps even to the way we approach the casinos as places of money exchange. Instead of motivation by greed, other values may offer a wiser clarity of thinking to enable new ways of re-distribution of wealth in society. As we have earlier stated, casinos actually provide a haven of relatively fixed range of variables, easier to deal with than the open ended financial and derivative markets which can host catastrophic loss.
It is not easy to relatively consistently win at the casino but with a fresh approach that throws out previous misapprehensions, then anything is possible given the right knowledge, attitude and application.
That is the challenge I set myself.
Please do not take offence to removal of some posts but it is the editor who is looking to thread a pathway through the woods.
Best
XXVV
Gizmotron: I think is was Victor who gave thread originators the option of deleting posts, I'm sure just to keep threads on track.
I get no feeling that your posts have been deleted for any other reason.
I suppose the answer is if you want to share your knowledge start a thread. I'm sure it will be appreciated by many of us.
Robert
For the record, I deleted nothing.
Ken
QuoteEnough said in this thread. Perhaps I'll find another thread where it applies
I hope so, maybe you could start your own thread and post it there, you will then have the power to remove what you want as thread starter, if Trebor and Bayes didn't understand it I probably wont either, depends how criptic you make it I guess, still, I look fowrad to it Gizmotron.
My apologies in deleting any material, and there is nothing personal in this, and in fact I may have been in error in taking that action. As my own Editor I took the view that the subject of short term trends is fundamental in dealing with randomness but that the offering added nothing new to what had earlier been stated by others and probably more clearly.
There is no big secret to this subject. It is a phenomenon of natural randomness that short sequences can be detected where a pattern can be perceived, and we grasp at this like straws, sometimes successfully. John Patrick writes on the subject of short trends quite well.
With recent EQ events where I am currently located geo-physicists also grasping at straws and holding a torch in the darkness suggest a pattern in recent random events, despite the fact that earlier range predictions have been shown incorrect. It is made wise by being after the event.
So apologies to those writers who feel cheated or betrayed or persecuted. Feel free to make new offerings to New Ways of Thinking. perhaps the editor might be a little wiser now.
Best XXVV
Hello again XXVV,
A profound thread. Lots to think about.
I just came across a very interesting thread, at least in my eyes, which I feel could contribute.........
link:://rouletteforum.cc/index.php?topic=7969.0 (link:://rouletteforum.cc/index.php?topic=7969.0)
You are probably already aware of this approach but felt it might be useful to help demonstrate how to recognize advantages moments for entering a betting cycle based on the cyclical nature of "randomness". Feel free to delete this post if it doesn't flow well :)
Thanks again for sharing your insights.
Hi Amk,
I don't think this idea works personally. See my response to the above mentioned topic. Having said that - in response to the short trends thing - I agree it can be profitable, but the runs/changes thing to me is the same as R/B or H/L etc.
Woods
Please refer to Advanced Roulette writing by John Patrick and others.
Essence of successful play in roulette is hopping on and then off short trends.
....same as 'hot or very warm numbers - same principle. Timing of entry and exit is essential.
In my thread on Experimental Ideas I also refer to a reverse bet which has a postive edge because it reverses a losing bet. Timing there is also essentail because even with a + edge you can still lose from time to time but by applying moving averages to help timing you improve efficiency by 30% !!
XXVV
XXVV, it's nice to see someone else passing on the advice of John Patrick. It's good advice.
I too think it's a great technique to attack situations where a short streak gives large returns from a positive progression . My favorite is 6 single doz / col in a row. They don't have to be placed consecutive to reach that goal.
XXVV,
I felt this new thread would add to new ways of thinking as it ties in with subject matter being discussed........
link:://rouletteforum.cc/index.php?topic=8395.msg74695#new (link:://rouletteforum.cc/index.php?topic=8395.msg74695#new)
Look forward to your next post.
Recent article on Daniel Kahneman and his new book in the NZ Listener magazine written by an expat kiwi working at Oxford. This brilliant psychologist has been referred to earlier in the thread.
We need to wake up to the errors we frequently make in our thinking.
:.listener.co.nz (link:://:.listener.co.nz)
The latest issue may not yet show on the website because I bought an early edition. Recommend this as a brilliant checklist on the flaws on our thinking and biases.
Regarding judgment of issues and decisions in professional roulette play, this is a very important article and may warn us and possibly help. We must be aware of our ways of thinking and this has been touched on brilliantly by Nasim Taleb and John Patrick.
We must not be too hard on ourselves because we are delicate instruments. remember it may take hundreds if not thousands of events and degrees of failure before we hit the target and even then we have off days. Look at the great athletes and great teams in sport.
Just so it is relative and we have to understand the implications of randomness further. We need to be firm but fair with ourselves, always lifting our game, and chuckle at the occasional slip.
Best XXVV
Here are some of the Biases that drive us and I give credit to Daniel Kahneman and David Hall.
The halo effect
The anchoring effect
The availability heuristic
The affect heuristic
Base-rate neglect
Competition neglect
Framing effects
Hindsight bias ( big in roulette)
The illusion of skill
The illusion of validity
The planning fallacy
Loss aversion
Narrative fallacy
Priming effects
Representativeness bias
Substitution
The sunk-cost fallacy
WYSIATI ( what you see is all there is)
Also will refer again to N. Taleb and his references to Karl Popper and Science.
Food for thought
XXVV
Hello Everyone!!I'm just new here!Hope to learn more wiser tactics here!I just read this whole thread and I'm very please. I'm gonna apply this!That's for sure! (link:://imagicon.info/cat/test/icon_clap2.gif)
As it has been my approach to scatter various ideas around the Forum in obscure places in order to 'overlap' ideas both intentionally and also randomly ( serendipity), but also to screen out the time wasters, or those weakly motivated, please be advised that I have summarised current thinking and progress back on the CommonSense thread where I started (by default) over 18 months ago.
A visit may be to your advantage.
That takes nothing away from the excellent work of Mr CommonSense himself.
By the way, if you would like to contact me personally and avoid the more public route of the Forum PM, then email me on
palladioxxvv@yahoo.com
There is in the title the combination of influences which inspire me.
Best XXVV
Best XXVV