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Roulette-focused => The Notepad => Topic started by: ego on Mar 02, 03:37 AM 2012

Title: % Grinder - Trading - Marigny de Grilleua & Markow Chains
Post by: ego on Mar 02, 03:37 AM 2012

Simple introducing

Some times you do things with out knowing what you do with deeper understanding.
As in the past when i pass 800.000 trails using a 12 step fibo progression witch end up with a profit.

The selection was pretty easy.
I wait for three hovering isolated singels as selection and then bet for two series to chop or two singels falling back to back using two placed bets for each attack.

Today when i think back i do understand why it pass 800.000 trails as i was playing against one dozen not to repeat for 9 times in a row.
Note i don't recommend any one to play against any events.

Might sound strange but you can divide the even money distribution into three present state witch give you the same probability as using 1 in 3 as dozen play.

Marigny de Grilleau & Markow Chains

After reading and study Marigny and now Markow i find a solution where you can use any existing distribution based upon 50/50 probability for trading (like using stocks on the stockmarket) witch is alone is just amazing.
Any existing dozen play strategy (1 in 3) apply to "three present states" using the even money bets distribution.

% Grinder - Trading

As 1 in 3 distribution using present states with even money bets you can truly trending for dominance or pin point out winning tendency's hovering for short, medium and very long periods of time.With two placed bets after each other covering two out of three possibility's and three placed bets would prevent three shows in a row alternating - just to give a hint - witch is plus 1 zero 0 minus 1 using the line 1 1 1 to catch two present states out of three.

Comments & conclusion.

Playing patterns and use red and black as they come is useless and not effective at all when i compare towards using three present states witch allow you with high probability trading in the long run using present waves.If you want to reach a higher level of understanding i would recommend you to study Marigny de Grilleua and Markov Chains witch is a real eye opener towards a new world where there only exist tendency's of present waves.

Principals in a nutshell.

How does a dominance flow?
How do you recognise a dominance?
How perfect does a dominance need to be to be profitable?
How do you best recognise a dominance ending?

If you know these answers then you are ready to use this with the correct strategy.
Title: Re: % Grinder - Trading - Marigny de Grilleua & Markow Chains
Post by: ego on Mar 02, 08:26 AM 2012

-

For all you butterflies who flit from flower to flower to flower in a compulsive search for nectar.

Title: Re: % Grinder - Trading - Marigny de Grilleua & Markow Chains
Post by: Big EZ on Mar 02, 09:27 AM 2012
Ego,

I always enjoy reading your posts, I find them to be usefl in my studies..
With this information you provided I am not sure on how this would be applied. Could you perhaps help explain with some examples?
Title: Re: % Grinder - Trading - Marigny de Grilleua & Markow Chains
Post by: ego on Mar 02, 11:13 AM 2012

Three present states.

First you have to understand there exist two events.
There is series and there is singels.
Two opposite events.

One serie has the value of 1. (no matter length)
One single has the value of 1.

STATE 1

If we would get one isolated single event and one single isolated serie (with out any of them chopping) - then does would cancel eachother or we could dictate there is no imbalance as the values hovering at zero point.

The value is plus 1 minus 1 = 0 plus 1 minus 1 = 0 plus 1 minus 1 = 0

Short hovering state.

R BBB

Medium hovering state.

R BBBB R BBBBBBB

Large hovering state.

R BB R BBBBB R BBBBB R BBB R BBBBB R BB R BBB R BBBBB

And is can star the other way around as RRR B RRRRR B RRRR

Note that the minimum formation for the hovering state being present is one serie and one single or one single and one serie.

This hovering state will allways end with two singels or two series to chop.

RBR or BBBRRRR

The hovering state is the same thing getting one dozen once or repeat it self - same math and probability witch i mention above as a early experiment passing 800.000 trails chasing or playing against the hovering state.

STATE 2

The second state is to series to chop as minimum for our observations.

RRBBB or BBBRRR

Witch would be plus 1 plus 1 = 2 or being a short tendency towards present imbalance towards that direction.

Short state or minimum state to verify it is present.

RRBBB or BBBRRR

Medium state would be around 3 to 5 series chopping.

RRRBBBRRBBRRRRBBB

Large state would be around 6 to 12 or more hitting 3 to 4 STD.

RRRBBRRRRRBBBBBBBBRRRBBBBBBRRBBRRRBBBBRRBBBBBRRRRBBBBRRRBBBBBRRRRBBB

Remember that each serie is one event.

STATE 3

The minimum is two singles in a row witch look like this RBR (has to be three to verify that we have a present state of two singels - the third we know nothing about and is part of the future).

The minimum present state to verify is as follows.

RBR or BRB

Medium ...

RBRBRB

Large or hitting 3 to 4 STD

RBRBRBRBRBRBRBRBRBRBR

Each Event or Each Outcome.

First we can start with observing the random flow with the present states unfolding.
If they alternating then it would be the same thing for each dozen to show once during a cycle of three trails.

RBRRBBRBB

BBRRBRRBRB

RRBRRBBRBR

This means there is no existing imbalance at all.
First the three present state have one show each - no imbalance.
And regarding the outcomes so are they the minimum formations due to series of two.

Now lets look at a real sample from random org.
2 = black
1 = red

TRNG 2012 03 02

Title: Re: % Grinder - Trading - Marigny de Grilleua & Markow Chains
Post by: ego on Mar 02, 02:42 PM 2012

Lets assume you have one state present.
Then you can bet once for it to repeat and if it does not then you will have two present states.
All that with one singel bet.

Then if you want to continue then following the last two present state then you will hit does placing two bets and if you lose then you lost a total of three bets and you will have one show of each present state.

Now there is so many other ways to take andvantage of 1 in 3 and you can apply any dozen strategy with even money bets described above with less placed bets.
Title: Re: % Grinder - Trading - Marigny de Grilleua & Markow Chains
Post by: ego on Mar 03, 01:55 PM 2012

It is effective and amazing

I recon i would hit plus 100 units after 1000 placed bets witch is amazing.
Everyon say you can not flat betting due the games negative expectation or that the house edge will manifest - but my chart just grow and take a step back and start to grow again.
No triggers or stop-loss just playing each event as they come following the flow.

I use the principals above with Marigny and Markov.

(link:://i43.tinypic.com/ioggft.png)

I will try to see how it perform using 300 trails sessions.
Then see how it perform with out triggers and stop-loss just following the flow.
I have one idea for flat betting money management and will post it later.
Title: Re: % Grinder - Trading - Marigny de Grilleua & Markow Chains
Post by: ego on Mar 04, 04:47 AM 2012

I am exiting about 1 in 2

Above i use even money bets with "La Partage Rule" with 1.35% house edge.
The placed bets using one specific algorithm witch capture tiny waves of imbalance.
That based upon knowledge by Marigny and Markov.

Now i study this as i enjoy how the distribution unfold like a beautiful flower.
Next i will only play pure 1 i 2 to see how i do and get the strike ratio % with out the house edge effect things - the data.

I want pure data.

As i see the opportunity regarding sport-betting to be one optional market with this kind of strategy.
Also been looking into currency exchange as optional market.
I am pretty sure this knowledge can be useful for any kind of trading as long you can find two opposite components witch is 1 in 2 regarding probability.

Cheers
Title: Re: % Grinder - Trading - Marigny de Grilleua & Markow Chains
Post by: ego on Mar 04, 07:00 AM 2012

-

New update.

It feels after 950 placed bet that it start to dive into the deep hole.
Not rapid and it might hovering around zero point do.

So around 1000 placed bets with a net gain around 55 units.
That is for sure less then Van Keelen Test witch say 1000 placed bets with a net gain around 100.

Still searching.

-


(link:://i43.tinypic.com/2mpml1c.png)
Title: Re: % Grinder - Trading - Marigny de Grilleua & Markow Chains
Post by: ego on Mar 05, 03:48 AM 2012

-

Sequential betting strategy

As i mention above so do we have 1 in 3 using three present state's.
That means that any dozen strategy apply using even money bets with less placed bets covering same positions of probability.

I skip the idea that i test above as it not holding up to does values i am searching for at the moment.
I aim for a new state to show and bet against one state repeating it self to become two same present state after each other.

You see two singels or more you play once that you will get two series to chop or if that bet is lost you bet that the next state will hovering.
You see a serie you bet it to chop being at least two in a row or if that bet is lost you wait and observe if you get one or two singels and if one singels you bet next series to repeat or two singels or if two singels you bet next serie to chop or one single.
You see one single you bet next that two series will chop if not then you bet for two singels in a row.

There is a loop hole to profit from witch is each time a serie chop and you win your first placed bet you let it ride for more series to chop.
Each time that does not happen you are at zero point betting against any present state to repeat it self.

Each attack for each sequential betting is 3 placed bets to cover the options i mention above.
This is how a common LW Registry look like:

TRNG 2012 02 27 LW REGISTRY

W W W W W L L L
L W W L L W W W W W W W L L W W L W L W W L L W L L W W L W W W W L L W L L L
W W W W L W W L W L W W L W L W L W L L W W W W L L W W L W W L W W W W

TRNG 2012 02 28 LW REGISTRY

L L W W W W W L L W L W W W W W W W W L W W W W W L L L
L W L L L
W L L W W W W L W L W W L L W L L L
W L L L
L W L W L L W W W W W L W L W L W L L W


TRNG 2012 02 29 LW REGISTRY

W W W L W L L W W W L W W L L L
L W W W W W L L W W W L L L
L L W W L L W W L L W W L W L L W W L W W W L L W W L W W L W W L W L W L W L W W L W W L W W L W L L W W W

Next is that i am working with a new sequential betting strategy using the three present states.
Will follow up this topic with new highlights.
Title: Re: % Grinder - Trading - Marigny de Grilleua & Markow Chains
Post by: ego on Mar 05, 08:50 AM 2012

EDIT

I should mention regarding the random walk that if you get one state to repeat twice you wait until a new present state show (new different state) before continuing with the random walk.
Title: Re: % Grinder - Trading - Marigny de Grilleua & Markow Chains
Post by: Big EZ on Mar 05, 09:23 AM 2012
Although I am still not 100% sure that I understand what's going on here I do have some suggestions based on you W/L records that you posted. I am not sure if either of these will be useful but maybe it will, who knows.

First suggestion. If you played this with a reverse lab would I think that the profit would be more secure. It seemms there are multiple winning streaks throughout

Second.... what if you used 2 diff banks with a controlled progression for each bank. The object would be to use each bank to follow eith a W or a L repeating. It would cut down te number of placed. Bets and there would be some virtual spins involved.

Title: Re: % Grinder - Trading - Marigny de Grilleua & Markow Chains
Post by: ego on Mar 06, 07:06 AM 2012
Quote from: Big EZ on Mar 05, 09:23 AM 2012
Although I am still not 100% sure that I understand what's going on here I do have some suggestions based on you W/L records that you posted. I am not sure if either of these will be useful but maybe it will, who knows.

First suggestion. If you played this with a reverse lab would I think that the profit would be more secure. It seemms there are multiple winning streaks throughout

Second.... what if you used 2 diff banks with a controlled progression for each bank. The object would be to use each bank to follow eith a W or a L repeating. It would cut down te number of placed. Bets and there would be some virtual spins involved.

What do you mean by reverse lab - can you be more specific and post one example.
Sure it will hold up using a slight positive progression or one that goes like a pendal in two directions.

I test some more placed bets and it does not tank - it get drawdowns and ups hovering around 30 units.

(link:://i44.tinypic.com/34zd9ox.png)
Title: Re: % Grinder - Trading - Marigny de Grilleua & Markow Chains
Post by: Big EZ on Mar 06, 09:22 AM 2012
if you search the forum for it you will find a thread that Fripper started that has to deal with the reverse labby. I would link it here but I am posting from my phone.
Title: Re: % Grinder - Trading - Marigny de Grilleua & Markow Chains
Post by: ego on Mar 08, 03:44 AM 2012

The final solution.

I find a way to use skip and find a way to use cycles based upon the algorithm above.
The result are amazing with short testing using 300 trails sessions.

Next i will run 1000 placed bets and aim for 100 units net gain witch is the minimum bench mark.
I would not flat betting with result that show less as i recon some one would need at least 2.5 STD to survive common fluctuation in the long run.

(link:://i44.tinypic.com/f1y2va.png)

Raw trending peaks & pure cycle peaks.

If we ride only the peaks we will end up with pure peaks of how each cycle perform.
Is the only solution or tweak i can think of at the moment.

Just like trading daily peaks on the stock market.
Witch would mean 8 hours or 300 trails session trading using roulette.

Raw trending peaks:

(link:://i43.tinypic.com/2qxow0p.png)

And just ride does will end up with pure cycle peaks.

Pure cycle peaks:

(link:://i40.tinypic.com/bdtr3l.png)
Title: Re: % Grinder - Trading - Marigny de Grilleua & Markow Chains
Post by: ego on Mar 09, 04:45 PM 2012

Fictive Conditional Probability

I notice that you only have to place one single bet to catch two present waves out of three.
That create a hard core loop hole or bias witch i explore.
I name it Fictive Conditional Probability because even if it give andvantage it does not eliminate the present state witch is left witch can create some hard core imbalance.

Masse Égale

Flat betting is simple math and probability.
If some one can end up plus 1 unit and it overcome the attempts doing so - then you succeed.

I test this to aim for plus 1 unit using 10 attempts doing so.
I won 30 sessions in a row or more then double my bank.


1.  1
2.  1
3.  1
4.  1
5.  1
6.  1
7.  1
8.  1
9.  1
10.  1

11.  1
12.  1
13.  1
14.  1
15.  1
16.  1
17.  1
18.  1
19.  1
20.  1

21.  1
22.  1
23.  1
24.  1
25.  1
26.  1
27.  1
28.  1
29.  1
30.  1


Money Management Strategy - Masse Égale

Next you can pick a realistic win goal like 5 units and your bank is 10 units witch is 50% target - but you accept losses during the game following one simple algorithm using LW-Regsitry.
Lets assume your first bet wins {W} then your second bet lose {WL} then you lower your win target with 1 unit.
If you get two loses in a row you lower your win target with 2 units and keep deduct your win goal depending on how many loses you get - down swings.
This way you end up at plus 1 unit or at 0 point and accept the fluctuation.
And if you find your self in hell you lose your 10 unit bank - but with two good saftey nets witch allow you end up with profit or at zero point - that means you have to get a down swing witch dive all the way.

X 5

L 4
W 4 0
W 4 1
W 4 2
L 3 1
W 3 2
L 2 1
W 2 2

(link:://i44.tinypic.com/2db45ue.png)
Title: Re: % Grinder - Trading - Marigny de Grilleua & Markow Chains
Post by: ego on Mar 11, 04:53 AM 2012

-

The permanence is like a beautiful flower who unfold it self ...

I wish every one read randomness using three present states, it is a very nice way to observe what is going on with the random flow.
I recon not every one is following this topic to be easy so i will try to explain some basic observations.

When you see one dozen to repeat it self like 11 or 111 or 22 or 222 or 33 or 333 you might wondering how it looks like using three present states, witch is pretty simple.
First you have to have a clear mind and understand the three formations witch create three different states - See above.

STATE 1 - If series of singels repeats like dozen's - witch is one state - one state to repeat like dozen's - with minimum two singels or more in a row - it will look like this:

RRRBBBRR{BRB}RRRR{BRB}RRR or BBBRRR{BRBRBR}BBBBB{RBRBRB}RRR{BRBR}BBRRR

STATE 2 - If series of series chop after each other - then have to have four in a row to get that state to repeat twice.

RRRBBBRRRRBBBB or RRRBBBRRRRBBBRRRRBBBBB

STATE 3 - If you get at Least two isolated singels in a row you have a double dozen.

RRRBRRRBRRRR or BBBBRBBBBRBBBBBRBBBBRBBBB

The three present states has the same probability and same random distribution as dozen 1X2.

There is one exception to our advantage - you place less bets on the layout then you would do playing dozen's.
Example if you would play against dozen to alternate with one show each you would have to place 4 units to cover does postions and try to win - but using even money bets with three present states you only have to place two to three single bets to cover the same positions - depending on strategy.
Title: Re: % Grinder - Trading - Marigny de Grilleua & Markow Chains
Post by: thrasher on Mar 24, 07:55 AM 2012
Quote from: ego on Mar 08, 03:44 AM 2012
The final solution.

I find a way to use skip and find a way to use cycles based upon the algorithm above.
The result are amazing with short testing using 300 trails sessions.

Next i will run 1000 placed bets and aim for 100 units net gain witch is the minimum bench mark.
I would not flat betting with result that show less as i recon some one would need at least 2.5 STD to survive common fluctuation in the long run.

Raw trending peaks & pure cycle peaks.

If we ride only the peaks we will end up with pure peaks of how each cycle perform.
Is the only solution or tweak i can think of at the moment.

Just like trading daily peaks on the stock market.
Witch would mean 8 hours or 300 trails session trading using roulette.


Ego,

do you still continue to work in this topic? It seemed very interesting. What was the skip you used between cycles?
Or maybe you stopped research because in the long run it was not working?

Best regards
Thrasher
Title: Re: % Grinder - Trading - Marigny de Grilleua & Markow Chains
Post by: ego on Sep 25, 02:25 AM 2012

I find a solid optimal march using the three present states - i will try to explain it - if there is still is some one intressting in trending using three present states with the same probability as dozen play.L

LW-Registy 300 Trails from today's random org.

L
L
W
L
W
L
W
L
W
L
W
W
W
W
L
W
W
W
L
L
W

L
L
L

- - -

L
L
W
W
W
W
L
L
W
W
L
L
W
L
L
W
L
W
W
W
L
W
L
W
W
W
L
L
W
L
W
W
L
L
W
W
L
W
L
L
W
L
W
W
W
W
L
W
L
W

L
L
L

- - -

W
L
W
W
W
W
L
L
W
W
W
W
W
W
L
L
W
W
Title: Re: % Grinder - Trading - Marigny de Grilleua & Markow Chains
Post by: ego on Sep 25, 02:55 AM 2012
Quote from: ego on Sep 25, 02:25 AM 2012
I find a solid optimal march using the three present states - i will try to explain it - if there is still is some one intressting in trending using three present states with the same probability as dozen play.L

LW-Registy 300 Trails from today's random org.

L
L
W
L
W
L
W
L
W
L
W
W
W
W
L
W
W
W
L
L
W

L
L
L

- - -

L
L
W
W
W
W
L
L
W
W
L
L
W
L
L
W
L
W
W
W
L
W
L
W
W
W
L
L
W
L
W
W
L
L
W
W
L
W
L
L
W
L
W
W
W
W
L
W
L
W

L
L
L

- - -

W
L
W
W
W
W
L
L
W
W
W
W
W
W
L
L
W
W

The Optimal March

You play that the first present state will repeat - if a loss you play that the two present states will repeat.
That is a total of three bets.

If you lose all three bets you have three different present states.

Triggers

I have no triggers for The Optimal March - but getting three alternating has the same probability as dozen play and getting six or nine in a row also has the same probability as ordinary dozen play.

The process

2
1
2 State singles chop
2
2
1
1 L Play singles chop - loss and two states present - singles chop and series chop.
2
1 L Play series chop - loss and we play singles chop next.
2 W Singles chop and we win.
2
1
1 L Play singles chop - loss and two states present - singles chop and series chop.
1
1
1
2
2 W Play series chop and we win.
2
1
2 L Play series chop - loss and two states present - isolated singles and series chop.
2
1
1 W Series chop and we win.
1
2
1 L Play series chop - loss and two states present - isolated singles and series chop.
1
1
2
2 W Play series chop and we win.
2
1
2 L Play series chop - loss and two states present - series chop and series of singles.
1
2
2
1
1 W Play series chop and we win.
2
2 W Play series chop and we win.
1
1 W Play series chop and we win.
1
1
2
2 W Play series chop and we win.
1
2 L Play series to chop - loss and two states present - series chop and series of singles.
1
1
2
2 W Play series chop and we win.
2
2
2
2
2
1
1 W Play series chop and we win.
2
2 W Play series chop and we win.
1
2 L Play series chop - loss and two states present - isolated singles and series chop.
2
2
2
1
2 L Play series chop - loss.
2 W Play isolated singles and we win.
1
1 L Play singles - loss and two states present - series to chop and isolated singles.
2
1 L Play series chop and lose
2 L Play isolated singels and lose.

Three loses in a row with three states alternating.
If you would continue after three present alternating states you would play agains't the previos three present states - so the march would change direction.
Title: Re: % Grinder - Trading - Marigny de Grilleua & Markow Chains
Post by: ego on Sep 25, 03:02 AM 2012

Closer then this you can't get when comparing towards trending like the stocks on the stock-market.
Is based upon valid probability 1 in 3 same as dozen play using different states as Markow Chains.
Also you catch all the existing imbalance based upon Marigny's work - series to chop and repeat or singles to chop and repeat with stronger STD/Ecart ...

This is a decent method and valid playing model - it is some-thing i might considering using playing Asian Handicap with sport betting with odds around 1.80 vs 2.00 ...
The question or the puzzel that i have not solved yet is what kind of triggers to use.
Title: Re: % Grinder - Trading - Marigny de Grilleua & Markow Chains
Post by: malcop on Sep 25, 03:27 AM 2012
Hi Ego,

I still find this very intresting, I have created a excel sheet that records Series & Singles and I can get it to bet based on if I want a series or single to repeat or not repeat.

I just to fully understand the rules you are using to play the Win/Loss reg you posted, once I do I can make the sheet fully automatic and then it will play the way you have in your example.

The sheet already tracks singles/series for all EC at the same time, if I can get the sheet to play as you did above I will post on forum for all intrested members to use.

Thanks

malcop
Title: Re: % Grinder - Trading - Marigny de Grilleua & Markow Chains
Post by: ego on Sep 25, 03:36 AM 2012
Quote from: malcop on Sep 25, 03:27 AM 2012
Hi Ego,

I still find this very intresting, I have created a excel sheet that records Series & Singles and I can get it to bet based on if I want a series or single to repeat or not repeat.

I just to fully understand the rules you are using to play the Win/Loss reg you posted, once I do I can make the sheet fully automatic and then it will play the way you have in your example.

The sheet already tracks singles/series for all EC at the same time, if I can get the sheet to play as you did above I will post on forum for all intrested members to use.

Thanks

malcop

Lets start from the beginning.

If the first state is singles to chop RBR you play that next state will be the same - one repeat.
RBRBR BBB R Now we would bet once that the new present state will be the same as previos one.

If a loss then we have two present states.
RBRBR BBB RR Now we have singles to chop and series chop.
Now our next two bets would be to catch one of our two previos present states.
RBRBR BBB RR R BBB We lose as we did not get a repeat of our two previos present states.
We got three alternating present states.

That is the basic of The Optimal March.
Then come the question if you would start all over again or betting agains't the previos three alternating states.

Ask me specific question and i will try to explain all as good as i can.
Title: Re: % Grinder - Trading - Marigny de Grilleua & Markow Chains
Post by: malcop on Sep 25, 03:59 AM 2012
Thanks EGo,

I will see what I can do with what you have given me so far, what I am trying to do is make this rule based, and that will make it easer for me to code the sheet, as I have already said it knows how to bet for a series or single to repeat, or against them repeating, so if I can get the rules correct I will be able to get it to play as you described, then once that is done explore other ways of such as betting that a series of 2 dose not go to a series of 3 for example.

Thanks

Malcop
Title: Re: % Grinder - Trading - Marigny de Grilleua & Markow Chains
Post by: Drazen on Sep 25, 07:57 AM 2012
Quote from: ego on Sep 25, 02:55 AM 2012

Three loses in a row with three states alternating.
If you would continue after three present alternating states you would play agains't the previos three present states - so the march would change direction.


This is the thing i was saying to you yesterday in PM :)

But opposite of this, if you had 3 losses in a row, so to have all 3 states in row, you would stop and waited again to have 2 states in last three attempts? Or?

Cheers

Drazen

Title: Re: % Grinder - Trading - Marigny de Grilleua & Markow Chains
Post by: ego on Sep 25, 10:11 AM 2012
Quote from: drazen_cro on Sep 25, 07:57 AM 2012
This is the thing i was saying to you yesterday in PM :)

But opposite of this, if you had 3 losses in a row, so to have all 3 states in row, you would stop and waited again to have 2 states in last three attempts? Or?

Cheers

Drazen

Yes i have always told that any bet selection using dozen play works with even money bets using three present states.
This is how it look like using dozen.

1
2 L
2 W
3 L
2 W
1 L
1 W
1 W
2 L
1 W
2 L
3 L


Title: Re: % Grinder - Trading - Marigny de Grilleua & Markow Chains
Post by: Turner on Sep 25, 06:02 PM 2012
[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: % Grinder - Trading - Marigny de Grilleua & Markow Chains
Post by: speed on Sep 25, 08:07 PM 2012
ego, interesting topic..
Title: Re: % Grinder - Trading - Marigny de Grilleua & Markow Chains
Post by: ego on Sep 26, 02:24 AM 2012
Quote from: speed on Sep 25, 08:07 PM 2012
ego, interesting topic..

Sure is - trending based upon the correct principals with out any fuzzy or sloppy ideas.

1. If the state start to hovering you catch the train and ride it out.
2. If the state start to chop with series you catch the train and ride it out.
3. If the state start to chop with singles series you catch the train and ride it out.

That is for the repeats and catch when the STD/Ecart grow.

4. If two states start to chop for 10, 20, 30 times in a row you catch the train and ride it out.
5. If three states alternating you only have three singles loses.

PS

I test Drazen's trigger and it works out great.
Personally i would just follow the flow and attack after the states alternate once - pretty solid results.
Title: Re: % Grinder - Trading - Marigny de Grilleua & Markow Chains
Post by: Drazen on Sep 26, 04:18 AM 2012
One can try play like this. Whenever you have two different states in a row you bet them to repeat. So you are playing that all 3 won't whow up in a row, and that i like to call perfect state.

Why play like this?

Because number of combinations is in our favour.


Okay we would have 6 perfect states:

123
132
213
231
312
321

And twelve other states

122
121
232
233
311
313
211
212
322
323
131
133

So you are winning on 12 patterns and losing on 6 + green round number.

But on roulette is nothing due to happen and this fails as anything else. But it is fun to play with it.

Cheers

Drazen
Title: Re: % Grinder - Trading - Marigny de Grilleua & Markow Chains
Post by: malcop on Sep 26, 04:24 AM 2012
Hi Drazen,

Could you please demonstrate how you would apply your idea to Red/Black?

And are these the triggers of your that Ego reffered to?

Thanks

malcop
Title: Re: % Grinder - Trading - Marigny de Grilleua & Markow Chains
Post by: ego on Sep 26, 04:45 AM 2012
Quote from: drazen_cro on Sep 26, 04:18 AM 2012
One can try play like this. Whenever you have two different states in a row you bet them to repeat. So you are playing that all 3 won't whow up in a row, and that i like to call perfect state.

Why play like this?

Because number of combinations is in our favour.


Okay we would have 6 perfect states:

123
132
213
231
312
321

And twelve other states

122
121
232
233
311
313
211
212
322
323
131
133

So you are winning on 12 patterns and losing on 6 + green round number.

But on roulette is nothing due to happen and this fails as anything else. But it is fun to play with it.

Cheers

Drazen

Well there exist many combinations - i would think like this - what is the probability to get nine dozen in a row - that is pretty rare.
Like 123123123 ...
Then once you have 123 present state you would bet against and after that ride ...
Could be any combination 231 321 123 and so on.
Title: Re: % Grinder - Trading - Marigny de Grilleua & Markow Chains
Post by: Drazen on Sep 26, 04:51 AM 2012
Quote from: malcop on Sep 26, 04:24 AM 2012
Hi Drazen,

Could you please demonstrate how you would apply your idea to Red/Black?

And are these the triggers of your that Ego reffered to?

Thanks

malcop

Ok quick simple example with minimum bet formations for you

B
R
B
-----single
R
R
B
B
------serie- play against 3rd state which is hovering, or capturing last 2 states in other words
R----after this red come first you place R to capture last state or series
B---- B come and you lost, now you place R again to capture second last state or single
B-----B come again and now you have hovering state as last, or all 3 states in a row

Cheers

Drazen

P.S forum color doesn't work right obviously...
Title: Re: % Grinder - Trading - Marigny de Grilleua & Markow Chains
Post by: malcop on Sep 26, 05:03 AM 2012
Hi Drazen,

Thanks I understand, played this way before just was not sure if you was doing something diffrent.


malcop
Title: Re: % Grinder - Trading - Marigny de Grilleua & Markow Chains
Post by: Drazen on Sep 26, 05:19 AM 2012
Quote from: ego on Sep 26, 04:45 AM 2012
Well there exist many combinations - i would think like this - what is the probability to get nine dozen in a row - that is pretty rare.
Like 123123123 ...
Then once you have 123 present state you would bet against and after that ride ...
Could be any combination 231 321 123 and so on.

-

Yes, pure math and probability

Pretty rare ha? On roulette that means something.. Well I can think of one meaning, money in the pocket :)

And MM can be built up on base as probabilitiy is raising/running from some point to that pretty rare point... And with good bank i think we can set point where it can go beyond pretty rare. So to be able to face even extremly rare figures, which wont happen in your life time.

That just run through my head...

Cheers

Drazen



Title: Re: % Grinder - Trading - Marigny de Grilleua & Markow Chains
Post by: ego on Sep 27, 01:38 AM 2012

QuoteOkay we would have 6 perfect states:

123
132
213
231
312
321

And twelve other states

122
121
232
233
311
313
211
212
322
323
131
133

So you are winning on 12 patterns and losing on 6   green round number.

Define the losing state ...

Well there is a error using the quote above.
If we would follow the flow for one repeat of the previous two then 123 with 321 would be a win.
Also 312 would result in a win as we playing the previous two states.
Just to mention some of them among others - so the equilibrium looks a littel different.

The question is when we define the losing state alternating if we would stay with the main march after 123 or if we would change and bet against ...
I will test this further.
Title: Re: % Grinder - Trading - Marigny de Grilleua & Markow Chains
Post by: Drazen on Sep 27, 04:23 AM 2012
Well if we would follow the last two 123 and 321 is losing-winning-losing bet

12 bet 12 got 3-- lose

now bet 23 got 3 (233) win

now stop and wait again two different 32 (1) lose.. and so on..
But maybe best is follow last 2 and on loss start from last, so when 123 123 rolling happens we will have 6 lossess instead of 9?

I think it is better to alleviate such situations when they come then fight hard against them..

And when you will have 123 123 you know that in next 3 bets is veeeery unlikely again to have 123 so change type of ammo and shoot all missed by then with one or two shots :)

Cheers

Drazen

Cheers

Drazen


Title: Re: % Grinder - Trading - Marigny de Grilleua & Markow Chains
Post by: ego on Sep 29, 02:57 PM 2012

There is on other march for dozen who works using three present states with even money.

Take dozen and play for change and that you wont get doubles of dozen to chop.
Like 111 222 111 222 333 22 333 111

That would mean for three present states that does would not repeat.

If you have the hovering state XXX O XXX then you would play for two series to chop or getting two singles events.
If you have two series to chop you would play for that at least one singles would appear for the next two events.
If you have two singles you would play for two series or one isolated singles event.

This is a short test result for 300 trails.

W W L W L W W L W L W W W W W L W W W W W L W L L

L W L W W W W L L

W L W L W W L L

W W L W W L W W L W W L L

L W W W W W L W L L

W L W W W W L W W L W W L W



Title: Re: % Grinder - Trading - Marigny de Grilleua & Markow Chains
Post by: Drazen on Oct 07, 06:20 AM 2012
Please mr. ego if I may add one idea of mine here. What I think is pretty cool way of taking as a standard march if one would play this.

Now when i perfectly understand principle of reducing bets to get same probability and now when I know how to get probability of 2:1 odds, playing on 1:1 odds i see random through different way. I like it a lot realy :)

I reckon that only 4-5 people maybe here knows and understand all this, and the rest has no clue, finding it too hard or give up in the start, or not doing it right, because it is not easy to understand immedietaly for someone who just tryes that...

I was doing my head around this for a while, and hitting against the wall few times before i didn't figured it out...

It is like driving a bicycle, I can show you and tell you all the theory, but anyway you won't be able to sit and drive it right for the first time.. It takes time. Same with this. But once when you get this principle playing roulette on even chances will be so interesting and funny if you apply some of ideas with this.

Ok how I think I am going to play this. I would play against repeating state, but against thrid from behind.. Why? Because if we would lost 3 attacks we would have 6 states in a row, and of course each have probability of showing 1/3 ... And that my dear roulette fellows you don't see so often...

You will see it once and then and very rare even more. You can stop maybe at 6 or 5 showed if you want, waiting rolling to stops and on change start again. How often happens that 6 dozens show in a row  back to back in short time? Well I must admit that I didn't found it yet... Although mantra says that in roulette everything can happen.

so it would be like this for example

1. serie
2. serie
3. hovering
4. single--you played against 1.(serie) win
5. hovering--you played against 2.(serie) win
6. single--you played against 3. (hovering) win

and so on
.
.
.
.

My opinion and from although not so extensive tests, that this way of playing shows realy cool winning strikes, and when you would hit losing serie of 3 attacks you would already be dealing with quite decently low probability...

Cheers

Drazen
Title: Re: % Grinder - Trading - Marigny de Grilleua & Markow Chains
Post by: malcop on Oct 07, 07:00 AM 2012
bDrazen,

I fully understnad your statement, it took me a while to fully understand this concept, but for me the but now it all makes perfect sense, for example if you had a series of such as BBB for the series to become two you would have to see BBBRR so that mens even if you had a series of BBBBBBBB it could only become a series of two if it choped to BBBBBBBBR now we are hovering and waiting to see what the next outcome is, if it gose BBBBBBBBRR we have our two series, but if it went BBBBBBBBRB we have a isolated single, BBBBBBBBRB and now we wait to see what happens next, dose it go to BBBBBBBBRBB a new series, or BBBBBBBBRBR another single.

Once I got that into my head it all became very simple, and even simpler to code a sheet to detect series & single and even hovering states.

Maybe you could give people and example with Red/Black on your suggested play, I have always found those kind of examples most helpfull.

Thanks

malcop
Title: Re: % Grinder - Trading - Marigny de Grilleua & Markow Chains
Post by: Drazen on Oct 07, 07:15 AM 2012
Quote from: malcop on Oct 07, 07:00 AM 2012
BBB for the series to become two you would have to see BBBRR so that mens even if you had a series of BBBBBBBB it could only become a series of two if it choped to BBBBBBBBR now we are hovering and waiting to see what the next outcome is, if it gose BBBBBBBBRR we have our two series, but if it went BBBBBBBBRB we have a isolated single, BBBBBBBBRB and now we wait to see what happens next, dose it go to BBBBBBBBRBB a new series, or BBBBBBBBRBR another single.


Hm.. hm.. I am afriad you are doing it wrong mr. malcop

BBB is not a serie. It means nothing in your example.

What you need to have is serie of serie BBRR --now this is one state. ok?

BBBRRRBBB- this is still one state. now if you would get RR after that then you would have BBBRRRBBBRR-- and now that would be two series in a row or like two dozens in a row.

And your isolated single state is also not correct. Do similar to this..

Regards

Drazen
Title: Re: % Grinder - Trading - Marigny de Grilleua & Markow Chains
Post by: malcop on Oct 07, 08:43 AM 2012
Well I was just talking about series and singles not states, and was told by someone that plays this a lot that a series has a minimum formation of two, so BRR the RR is the start of a series, as I said before I was not talking about states just series and singles.

Of course once you have BBRR you have a series of series, but each series still has to have a minimum formation of two of the same each.

Thanks

malcop
Title: Re: % Grinder - Trading - Marigny de Grilleua & Markow Chains
Post by: Drazen on Oct 07, 08:45 AM 2012
Then we are not talking about same thing and we cant apply same principle.

Cheers

Drazen
Title: Re: % Grinder - Trading - Marigny de Grilleua & Markow Chains
Post by: malcop on Oct 07, 10:58 PM 2012
Quote from: drazen_cro on Oct 07, 06:20 AM 2012
Please mr. ego if I may add one idea of mine here. What I think is pretty cool way of taking as a standard march if one would play this.

Now when i perfectly understand principle of reducing bets to get same probability and now when I know how to get probability of 2:1 odds, playing on 1:1 odds i see random through different way. I like it a lot realy :)

I reckon that only 4-5 people maybe here knows and understand all this, and the rest has no clue, finding it too hard or give up in the start, or not doing it right, because it is not easy to understand immedietaly for someone who just tryes that...

I was doing my head around this for a while, and hitting against the wall few times before i didn't figured it out...

It is like driving a bicycle, I can show you and tell you all the theory, but anyway you won't be able to sit and drive it right for the first time.. It takes time. Same with this. But once when you get this principle playing roulette on even chances will be so interesting and funny if you apply some of ideas with this.

Ok how I think I am going to play this. I would play against repeating state, but against thrid from behind.. Why? Because if we would lost 3 attacks we would have 6 states in a row, and of course each have probability of showing 1/3 ... And that my dear roulette fellows you don't see so often...

You will see it once and then and very rare even more. You can stop maybe at 6 or 5 showed if you want, waiting rolling to stops and on change start again. How often happens that 6 dozens show in a row  back to back in short time? Well I must admit that I didn't found it yet... Although mantra says that in roulette everything can happen.

so it would be like this for example

1. serie
2. serie
3. hovering
4. single--you played against 1.(serie) win
5. hovering--you played against 2.(serie) win
6. single--you played against 3. (hovering) win

and so on
.
.
.
.

My opinion and from although not so extensive tests, that this way of playing shows realy cool winning strikes, and when you would hit losing serie of 3 attacks you would already be dealing with quite decently low probability...

Cheers

Drazen
Hi Drazen,

I will code this idea of yours in a sheet and see how it works out.

If you could look over the sheet when I am done, to make sure it is playing as you outlined then that would be great.

Thanks

malcop
Title: Re: % Grinder - Trading - Marigny de Grilleua & Markow Chains
Post by: albertojonas on Nov 15, 08:16 PM 2012
Quote from: malcop on Oct 07, 10:58 PM 2012
Hi Drazen,

I will code this idea of yours in a sheet and see how it works out.

If you could look over the sheet when I am done, to make sure it is playing as you outlined then that would be great.

Thanks

malcop
Did you actually coded it?
Did some testing?


I might have a thought or two on this...


Cheers
AL
Title: Re: % Grinder - Trading - Marigny de Grilleua & Markow Chains
Post by: malcop on Nov 15, 08:18 PM 2012
Quote from: albertojonas on Nov 15, 08:16 PM 2012
Did you actually coded it?
Did some testing?


I might have a thought or two on this...


Cheers
AL
No mate.
Title: Re: % Grinder - Trading - Marigny de Grilleua & Markow Chains
Post by: albertojonas on Dec 19, 04:07 PM 2012
Quote from: ego on Mar 11, 04:53 AM 2012
-

The three present states has the same probability and same random distribution as dozen 1X2.

There is one exception to our advantage - you place less bets on the layout then you would do playing dozen's.
Example if you would play against dozen to alternate with one show each you would have to place 4 units to cover does postions and try to win - but using even money bets with three present states you only have to place two to three single bets to cover the same positions - depending on strategy.


no one interested?




Cheers
Title: Re: % Grinder - Trading - Marigny de Grilleua & Markow Chains
Post by: Nickmsi on Dec 19, 05:14 PM 2012
Hi Alberto . . .

Yes, I am always interested in more information on this.

I have a Tracker that only tracks 9 Single Series and bets upon a correction.  Have not advanced past the Single Series but would like to.

Thanks

Nick


Title: Re: % Grinder - Trading - Marigny de Grilleua & Markow Chains
Post by: albertojonas on Dec 19, 05:53 PM 2012
Quote from: Drazen on Oct 07, 06:20 AM 2012
Please mr. ego if I may add one idea of mine here. What I think is pretty cool way of taking as a standard march if one would play this.

Now when i perfectly understand principle of reducing bets to get same probability and now when I know how to get probability of 2:1 odds, playing on 1:1 odds i see random through different way. I like it a lot realy :)

I reckon that only 4-5 people maybe here knows and understand all this, and the rest has no clue, finding it too hard or give up in the start, or not doing it right, because it is not easy to understand immedietaly for someone who just tryes that...

I was doing my head around this for a while, and hitting against the wall few times before i didn't figured it out...

It is like driving a bicycle, I can show you and tell you all the theory, but anyway you won't be able to sit and drive it right for the first time.. It takes time. Same with this. But once when you get this principle playing roulette on even chances will be so interesting and funny if you apply some of ideas with this.

Ok how I think I am going to play this. I would play against repeating state, but against thrid from behind.. Why? Because if we would lost 3 attacks we would have 6 states in a row, and of course each have probability of showing 1/3 ... And that my dear roulette fellows you don't see so often...

You will see it once and then and very rare even more. You can stop maybe at 6 or 5 showed if you want, waiting rolling to stops and on change start again. How often happens that 6 dozens show in a row  back to back in short time? Well I must admit that I didn't found it yet... Although mantra says that in roulette everything can happen.

so it would be like this for example

1. serie
2. serie
3. hovering
4. single--you played against 1.(serie) win
5. hovering--you played against 2.(serie) win
6. single--you played against 3. (hovering) win

and so on
.
.
.
.

My opinion and from although not so extensive tests, that this way of playing shows realy cool winning strikes, and when you would hit losing serie of 3 attacks you would already be dealing with quite decently low probability...

Cheers

Drazen


3 Lost Attacks mean 6 Losses in a row. exactly like playing dozens.

Title: Re: % Grinder - Trading - Marigny de Grilleua & Markow Chains
Post by: albertojonas on Dec 20, 09:15 AM 2012
... It works almost the same as Ego's optimal march.


1=Series of Singles
2=Series of Series
3=Isolated Single (hovering)



SERIES OF SERIES = SERIES OF SINGLES


IN 1024 SPINS


32 ISOLATED SERIES / SINGLES
16 SERIES OF 2 SERIES / SERIES OF 2 SINGLES
8  SERIES OF 3 SERIES / SERIES OF 3 SINGLES
4  SERIES OF 4 SERIES / SERIES OF 4 SINGLES
2  SERIES OF 5 SERIES / SERIES OF 5 SINGLES
1  SERIES OF 6 SERIES / SERIES OF 6 SINGLES
1  SERIES OF 7 SERIES / SERIES OF 7 SINGLES

First i would like to state that the above does not have the same distribution as 3 dozens.


1)There is also isolated series (hovering).


2)It has also to do on how you consider series of series
1122 ->Series of series what about 1122112-? series of series repeating?


3) we are betting for repeating state on the length of Series of Series but not on the length of series of singles.


If anyone has some insight on this, please clarify. EGO

about Drazen's proposal:
you see 123
and next you play against 1 so you bet series once and if you lose you bet series again to catch hovering.
suppose the losing state 123
123 1(LL)
no you bet against Series of Series state, you bet singles and if you lose you already have a repeating state. so one more bet.
123 1(LL)2(L)
now you play against hovering state, you bet series and if you lose you bet singles to catch series of singles
123 1(LL)2(L)3(LL)


So you do the party with 5 bets.


the above is a bit different than playing that 3 must not alternate after 3 alternated. More on this latter


...
to be continued...
Title: Re: % Grinder - Trading - Marigny de Grilleua & Markow Chains
Post by: albertojonas on Dec 20, 04:22 PM 2012
 >:D
Title: Re: % Grinder - Trading - Marigny de Grilleua & Markow Chains
Post by: amk on Dec 20, 05:11 PM 2012
Thanks albertojonas for bringing this up again.


See some interesting possibilities, will look further.


Hope ego and Drazen might join in again.


8)
Title: Re: % Grinder - Trading - Marigny de Grilleua & Markow Chains
Post by: ego on Dec 27, 08:45 AM 2012

-

Thanks for the great work A ,,, i also been looking into different options...

I just solve one march that i did have an issue with before, just did not know how to deal with it.
The idea was to play against three state to alternate (like getting 123 with dozen).

So i have made some interesting observations based upon my march.

1. First i show how it works with dozen to follow the march, gets more easy to understand for others that way.

You follow the last hit dozen, if it repeats you win and continue following it.
If you lose, then you have two present dozen and you follow them, if you win you follow the last hit dozen to repeat and follow this formula over and over again.
If you lose you have three straight loses with three dozen with one show each, alternating.

2. The same thing above apply to three different states using even money  bets.
Series to chop state, singles to chop state, isolated single hovering state.

Here can you see how each random sequential distribution end with three states.


2
2
1
2
1
1
1
1
2
1 W
2
2
1
1 L
1
2
1 L
1 L
1

- - -

2
2
1
1
2
1 L
2
2
1
1 W
1
2
2 W
2
2
1
1 W
2
2 W
2
1
1 W
2
1 L
1
2
1 L
2 L
2

- - -

1
1
2
1
2
1
1
1
1
2
1 W
1
2
1 W
2
1
2
2
1
1 L
1
2
1 L
1 L
1
1

- - -

2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
1 L
1
2
2 W
2
1
1 W
1
1
2
2 W
2
2
2
1
2 L
1
1
1
1
2
1
2
1 L
1 L
1

- - -

2
2
2
1
1
2
2 W
1
2 L
2
1
2 L
2 W
1
2 W
1
2
2
2
2
1
2 W
1
1
1
1
1
2
2 L
2
1
1 W
1
2
2 W
1
2 L
2
2
1
2 L
2 W
1
2 W
1
1
2
2 L
1
2 L
2 L

- - -

1
1
2
2
2
1
2 L
1
1
1
1
2
2 W
2
2
1
2 L
1
2
1
1
1
2
2 W
1
2 L
1
2
1
1
2
2 W
2
1
1 W
1
2
1 L
2
1
1
1
1
2
1 L
2 W
1
1
2
2 L
1
2 L
1 W
1
1
1
2
1 W
1
1
1
1
2
2 L
1
1 W
1
1
2
1 L
1
2
2 W
2
1
2 L
2
1
2 L
1 L
1

- - -

2
2
1
1
2
1 L
2
1
2
1
2
1
1
1
1
1
2
1 L
2 W
1
2
2
2
1
2 W
2
1
2 W
1
1
2
1 W
1
2
2
1
2 W
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
2 W
2
1
1
2
1 W
2
2
2
1
1 L
22
2
1
2
1
1
1
1
2
1 W
2
2
1
1 L
1
2
1 L
1 L
1

2
2
1
1
2
1 L
2
2
1
1 W
1
2
2 W
2
2
1
1 W
2
2 W
2
1
1 W
2
1 L
1
2
1 L
2 L
2

1
1
2
1
2
1
1
1
1
2
1 W
1
2
1 W
2
1
2
2
1
1 L
1
2
1 L
1 L
1
1

2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
1 L
1
2
2 W
2
1
1 W
1
1
2
2 W
2
2
2
1
2 L
1
1
1
1
2
1
2
1 L
1 L
1

2
2
2
1
1
2
2 W
1
2 L
2
1
2 L
2 W
1
2 W
1
2
2
2
2
1
2 W
1
1
1
1
1
2
2 L
2
1
1 W
1
2
2 W
1
2 L
2
2
1
2 L
2 W
1
2 W
1
1
2
2 L
1
2 L
2 L

1
1
2
2
2
1
2 L
1
1
1
1
2
2 W
2
2
1
2 L
1
2
1
1
1
2
2 W
1
2 L
1
2
1
1
2
2 W
2
1
1 W
1
2
1 L
2
1
1
1
1
2
1 L
2 W
1
1
2
2 L
1
2 L
1 W
1
1
1
2
1 W
1
1
1
1
2
2 L
1
1 W
1
1
2
1 L
1
2
2 W
2
1
2 L
2
1
2 L
1 L
1

2
2
1
1
2
1 L
2
1
2
1
2
1
1
1
1
1
2
1 L
2 W
1
2
2
2
1
2 W
2
1
2 W
1
1
2
1 W
1
2
2
1
2 W
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
2 W
2
1
1
2
1 W
2
2
2
1
1 L
2
1 L
2 W
1 L
2 W


That is 300 trails.

This is how the LW-Registry looks like for each random sequential hits with different states.

WLLL
LWWWWWLLL
WWLLL
LWWWLLL
WLLWWWLWWLLWWLLL
LWLWLWWLLWLLWWLWLWLLL
LLWWWWWWWLLW

Pretty average variance, but playing once for each attack gives a tight variance but less action.

WLWWLWWLWLLW

Cheers