Rates Given - luckyfella

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Main Roulette Board / Re: Repeaters roulette systems
Excellent contribution Excellent contribution
on Oct 29, 06:48 PM 2019 to CoderJoe
I agree with most of what Steve has written about repeater systems in his link, but it isn't necessary to test for tens of thousands of spins.

Use the Chi-Square test for independence because all repeater and hot number systems assume that outcomes are dependent. If you're confused about what dependence and independence means, do the test. You don't need many spins, a couple of hundred is plenty, then if you get a positive result (I don't mean profit, I mean a significant result from the test), then do more tests and get more data, then repeat the test.

For instance, I'll take a typical hot number system as the 'Hypothesis'. Suppose the system is that you look at the last 15 spins and if there are at least 2 repeats you bet on the repeat numbers for the next 15 spins, and then stop. You've had quite good success playing this system and want to know if you've just been lucky or whether there really is a dependence going on.

You need to set up a table like this :



In this example I made up the numbers to show a dependence. The conclusion is :



Whatever your system is, the NULL hypothesis is that it doesn't work. The ALTERNATIVE hypothesis is that it does. What you're hoping for is that the NULL hypothesis is rejected, because that would suggest there is some dependence between your trigger and the results.

You can do the test online :

https://mathcracker.com/chi-square-test-of-independence. Just think about what is going to be in your table, get the data to put into the table, and the program does the rest. Use a significance level of 0.05.

Or use Excel which I'm pretty sure has this test in it.
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Main Roulette Board / Re: Over There but Here, Reading Randomness
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on Sep 15, 12:09 AM 2019 to Still
So here is my comment. You are on the right track. That's good.

However, identify every single thing that's a stumbling block to you. What is it that you can't know because of [whatever].

Write it down. It's very important you record each and every one of them down. This way you have a proper record that you can refer to of what you don't know now.

What you don't know or impossible to know is due to the limitation of your knowledge today. As you keep on this topic and now have proper record to focus on what you don't know, someday your subconcious mind may reveal the answer to you.

For someone who went very deep into the rabbit hole, I can tell you the boundaries of knowledge is much larger than what you read on forums or books or watch on youtube videos.

Understand that this is a journey where each one of us is at different locations of the path. Our location is the summation of our current knowledge and that keeps progressing at whatever rate and this growth rate rises as we learn more of the terrain.

Btw, I have 3decades of experience in this industry of directional trading.

Sadhguru said it this way,
Focus on it and the secrets of the universe will yield to you.

Maybe you are aware that this method is semi-dependent on precognition, as described in other threads here?  If so, why not join those threads and expand the knowledge base there? Preferably by adding some empirical studies, or personal reports of success?

Indeed, knowledge is where its at, and it's a major problem when a mind thinks it knows when it does not.  If your mind was filled with knowledge, there would be no room for faith, which is responsible for all phenomenon that can be seen with the human eye.  With full knowledge you would not see planets, or stars or people.  All of these, which change, are faith based phenomenon.  Observation of faith based phenom is mistakenly taken for "knowledge" when in fact it is just the observation of persistent, albeit faith-based, phenomenon.  2 + 2 = 4 is the observation of a persistent phenomenon, but it is not base in knowledge.  What causes 2 +2 to equal 4 is a faith-based phenomenon. ( It's faith that makes a unified whole seem separable and divisible into things that can be enumerated.) 

Hope this helps delineate the realm of knowledge from the realm of faith, two diametrically apposed states of mind. 

 
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Main Roulette Board / Re: Over There but Here, Reading Randomness
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on Sep 15, 12:01 AM 2019 to Still
Very close. The three net wins as a stop point is important. You need 2.33 session wins to break even with a seven net loss. I'm getting 4.66 sessions or better on average for each lost session. That's where the 2:1 comes from.

There are 6 groups. There are 12 sets, A / B, that make up each of the six groups of an Even Chance groupings. Example: one set of reds, one set of blacks = the red / black group.

You never know if you are in the middle or the end. It's a guess. But the most important aspect of the method is the difficulty of the session. Sometimes it's an easy win. Other times it's getting you nowhere. And some sessions swarm with first try losses as a streak. I virtual bet on first losses. They might be indicators of a streak of losses. You search for easy stretches of the session. You must use situational awareness in combination with trend identification.

I haven't showed this there yet because it is an advanced concept to look for. The size of trends swarm too. Micro trends often come in 4 or 5 spins and then they change to something else. You can get good at taking one win from micro trends or patterns.

I used the bigger concept of seeing singles on the weak side just to make sure everyone could see them in the charts. I make all my money on the ubiquitous mini trends or patterns when they swarm all over the charts. It's a very important characteristic. The size of trends tend to swarm at times. This is why you see me leave a win streak and go somewhere else looking for a new trend to bet.

Hunting the giant win streak has been my weakness for years. It's easy to side step a bad streak, to chug along slowly thru an even patch, but it's even easier to chip away at the sides of the mini characteristics too.

Hmm, i'm just wondering how this is not encoded somewhere given your advanced skills in coding.  I code too, and have to be very clear when explaining to the computer what i want it to do.  If i can do that, it's nice enough to spit back large amounts of data to tell me whether my rules have any merit.  If we are relying on human interpretation as it dances around some general rules of seeing patterns, then i am inclined to believe this is an unbeknownst reliance on precognition, as described in other threads here. I would suggest there are a lot of traders of markets who are actually getting by more on precognition then their actual rules. 

But as a rule, i'm in favor of following trends, and increasing bet size on the way up, decreasing on the way down.  I'm intrigued by the Chandelier Exit that may have been proven to work in random environments:

 https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/knowledge/trading-investing/chandelier-exit/

I'm also looking at the idea of up as you go.  For example, we know that if you changed your R:R ratio to 2:1 you would have twice as many losses as wins in a random environment.  A 4:1 ratio would have more like 4x losses per win as one's account balance continues to break even. So why not use a 4:1 or higher ratio, and parlay, or add to winning positions at the 2x, and/or 3x marks. The number of wins will remain the same (about 25%), but now they will be bigger, finally moving the needle on one's account balance. 

I'm just not optimistic about my ability to "read" six streams of ECs without very clear rules, clear enough to feed to a computer (which is what the brain is?).   If i have to rely on precognition, i should just recognize that, and concentrate my efforts more directly on cultivating that.  Isn't this logical?



4
Main Roulette Board / Re: Over There but Here, Reading Randomness
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on Sep 14, 10:36 PM 2019 to gizmotron2
Lucky,

I already know. I've been doing it right in front of you only you don't know what it is that I'm doing.
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Main Roulette Board / Re: Is roulette spins truly random ?
Excellent contribution Excellent contribution
on Sep 14, 09:16 PM 2019 to MoneyT101
I don't think something works well if it breaks even or loses for 20-30,000 spins  :)
At least it's a long term test that shows the reality and not a lucky sequence of 200 spins.
Yesterday I had an idea that I couldn't code, so I started doing a spin by spin test in excel. It's all flat bet, covering 9 numbers. I thought this is it.
Today I thought what the hell, I'm gonna do a real money test. It didn't take long for the casino to find the spins that make me lose.  :-\
Deep down I knew it couldn't work. Somebody said it many years ago. Is there a permutation that can make my system lose? Then I can be sure that roulette will find it.

Many people are just coming up with an idea and then testing it. 

But where’s the logic??

Look at your template and based on your template what happens do a step by step on what you’re seeing.  And take logical steps.

How can you beat those bad permutations? Or how can you play in a way in which you don’t lose as much?
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Main Roulette Board / Re: Is roulette spins truly random ?
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on Sep 13, 09:17 PM 2019 to Kav
If Steve is correct as you said twice, then you are wrong.
You can't have it both ways.
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Main Roulette Board / Re: Is roulette spins truly random ?
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on Sep 13, 06:20 AM 2019 to CoderJoe
Large groups of roulette spins obey laws. The law of large numbers and the law of probability.
Random is not a free for all. Random doesn't mean anything is possible. There are expectations to be met. That's why you don't see series of 100 blacks or the same number hit consecutively 10 times.

Yes but this doesn't mean that future spins can be predicted from past spins.
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Main Roulette Board / Re: 37 back to basics
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on Nov 29, 06:03 AM 2018 to Herby
statistics of roulette, including the normal binomial distribution

you have to differentiate:
binomial distribution:   discrete probability distribution
normal distribution:        continuous distribution



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