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Probability of Parachute success

Started by Let Me Win, Jan 19, 05:46 AM 2019

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0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Let Me Win

Could one of our resident math gurus please tell me the probability of success using Victor's Parachute.

In other words what chance that I will win at least one of the 36 spins using the same random number each spin.



Firefox

The chance of a number not winning is 36/37 or 37/38 US

In 36 spins the chance of it not coming up is (36/37)^36 = 0.373  or (37/38)^36 =0.383 US

So your chance of a profit or break even is 62.7% or 61.7% US wheel.

Let Me Win

I think this is wrong because it does not take into account that on my first spin I have an even chance of winning and on my second spin I have a 2/1 chance of winning and on spins 3,4,5 I have a 5/1 chance of winning etc etc

In other words my target number can never appear but I could still win each time.

Firefox

I think you may be right but your number does have to win after spin 18 when bet straight up.

In that case the chance you will not win is

(19/37) x (25/37)  x (31/37)^3 x (33/37)^3 x (34/37)^3 x (35/37)^6 x (36/37)^19

Does that seem more reasonable?


Let Me Win

Yes, I think that's correct. Thanks could  you tell me the result of that expressed as a percentage please.

Firefox

4.78% you lose

95.22% you will win or break even.

I only have mobile phone at moment which is not a very good calculator, so hopefully someone else can check and verify!

Let Me Win

Thanks.

The way I'm playing it is first spin bet one unit on corner 0,1,2,3

Then assuming I lose using the number spun as my target number for the remaining 35 spins.

Spin 2 I use the column so I play as per the chart just skipping the first even money bet.

I do this so I have a random method for selecting my target number each time.

Bigbroben

Quote from: Firefox on Jan 19, 07:26 AM 2019
4.78% you lose

95.22% you will win or break even.

I only have mobile phone at moment which is not a very good calculator, so hopefully someone else can check and verify!

Yes, that is correct
Life is hard, and then you die.
Mes pensées sont le dernier retranchement de ma liberté.

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