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Bet method based on mini-games

Started by GLC, Mar 27, 01:27 AM 2011

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beretta28

Sorry,I miscalculated.Your table is perfect.I'm not stronger than a computer......

In fact all my comments or doubts were based on the fact that I'm in Europe and I know and play only roulette,one zero,partage rule.
That's why your tables seemed to me a bit strange,mainly bankroll 10 units win goal + 1 unit.

In the book of Dubins and Savage(How to play ,if you must),that take into consideration only European roulette,partage rule,the best strategy for 10 units to 11 units is "to play the minimum amount of units on EC,that allows to reach the goal in the lowest number of spins,that is:
1 unit,if lose 2 units,if lose 4 units,if lose 3 units.If lose again,game over.If win last 3 units bet,than bet 5 units and so on with the same principle that Dubins and Savage call "the brave and risky strategy" or something like that.
What I don't understand is that playing this way the % of success is 89,9406,exactly the same % you mention with NO partage rule in your EC version.(???!!!)

beretta28

Quote from: beretta28 on Mar 28, 09:31 AM 2011
Sorry,I miscalculated.Your table is perfect.I'm not stronger than a computer......

In fact all my comments or doubts were based on the fact that I'm in Europe and I know and play only roulette,one zero,partage rule.
That's why your tables seemed to me a bit strange,mainly bankroll 10 units win goal + 1 unit.

In the book of Dubins and Savage(How to play ,if you must),that take into consideration only European roulette,partage rule,the best strategy for 10 units to 11 units is "to play the minimum amount of units on EC,that allows to reach the goal in the lowest number of spins,that is:
1 unit,if lose 2 units,if lose 4 units,if lose 3 units.If lose again,game over.If win last 3 units bet,than bet 5 units and so on with the same principle that Dubins and Savage call "the brave and risky strategy" or something like that.
What I don't understand is that playing this way the % of success,according to the book and my calculations and experience, is 89,9406,exactly the same % you mention with NO partage rule in your EC version.(???!!!)

mr.ore

To make thinks clear, my software policy generator cannot use partage rule right now. I still wonder if with big bankrolls and targets it would always prefer even chance, just because there is lower house edge. In theory we should only use the options with lowest house edge, but I have seen in some article someone combined two worse bets on craps and obtained better probability than with don't pass, so who knows.

Look there: link:://wtwii.wordpress.com/2006/08/24/debunking-a-craps-system/

Quote
More interesting is a case (which can also be called a system) in which playing two bets simultaneously in a certain manner results in a lower house advantage. A place bet on the six or on the eight is well known for having a vig of 1.52% (calculated as ((5/11)*7+(6/11)*(-6))/6). However, when you play a place bet on the eight simultaneously and meticulously put both bets up at the same time and remove them both when either wins, the house advantage is only 1.04% (calculated as ((10/16)*7+(6/16)*(-12))/12)!

Anything but Seven

Another similar case occurs with the so-called Mensa Anything But Seven system. You place a one-roll bet for $22 ($6 each on the place 6 and 8, $5 on the field, and $5 on the place 5). The house advantage on this bet (verified here - link:://wizardofodds.com/askthewizard/109) is only 1.136%, less than any of the individual bets placed separately.

mr.ore

By the way, what happens with imprison rule, if zero(es) hits, bets are frozen, and next spin another zero hits? Are they lost or imprisoned again, until something other than zero(es) hits? On win they are returned if I remember correctly, right?

beretta28

They are imprisoned again and again....
That's why is better to ask the dealer to give half bet back,at the first zero!

mr.ore

Does imprison affects also dozens and columns? They are also outside bets.

beretta28

I heard also something like that,concerning roulette,but I didn't found anything about that.
I know that is only valable if you play a low number of spins(how many?who knows?) and if the ratio win goal/bankroll is a certain % that I don't know too,but also very low.
I'm wondering if is not called "Parrondo paradox".
That's why I 'm so interested in your tables.I thought that was what I've been looking for several months.
I'm still wondering why % of 89,9406 for EC Marty is the same in your tables(NO partage option,you said-sure?-) and in Dubin and  Savage book(partage option taken into account)

Your example for craps is very interesting.
Unluckily I don't know craps very well(in Europe it doesn'exist partically)

beretta28

NO,partage rule exists only for EC.
Dozens and colums are like lines,streets,squares and so on...no partage option!

mr.ore

Maybe they did not use that rule, maybe the difference is so negligible, that it is not visible in a few first digits of computed probability number.

beretta28

An additional point for roulette is:
-if 1000 players play at least 20000 spins on EC and 1000 players play 20000 spins on an given straight number,both flat bet,at the end of 20 thousand spins ZERO  EC players  will have a positive balance(all losers),but at least 5 players of straight number will still earn money.
That's why EC are not the best bet in certain situations of BKR,wingoal,etc

mr.ore

It is obvious, singles have higher variance. After 20000 spins with en prison rule, you have no chance to be positive flat betting. On a number, the chance exists, maybe even on american roulette.

For a nearly optimal play strategy, just do a progression on a single, or with lower targets make a parachute. Nearly optimal strategy is to win at least your target bankroll size in one hit with as few units as possible. If there are more possibilities, just select the one which is as near your target as possible, it's the one which wins minimal amount of units. You can also cap your target bankroll size to force probability stay near optimal strategy. It is that simple.

beretta28

Yes,the problem is that the 995 losing players on straight numbers,lose a huge amount of money,much more than each EC players.

The nearly optimal strategy you mention is what I play in Montecarlo Casino.
My win goal is very low(no greed),15% at the most of my bankroll.
Progression:1,2,4,8,10,12,14,16,18,20:105 units(Marty 4 terms and D'Alembert 6 terms).
Risk of ruin/bankruptcy 1,2% or 1 every 83 attacks
(you are expert in Computers,can you check these % as risk of ruin?Thanks)
I don't trust in bet selection:IMHO it doesn't exist.
An alternative is "the bold strategy".
Parachute is dangerous,but I use it just for fun when 15% of bkr is achieved.
I must study your tables and reflect on them.......
If some good ideas i ÃÆ'Ã,¬ll write to you again.

mr.ore

If you have 105 units for your progression, then your target = 105*1.15=120 units. You can try this strategy instead, start on a line with bankroll 105. It is should be very near optimal method.


bankroll    bet    W    L    Pwin 
  no bet    -    -    0.0000% 
1           1 unit on 35:1    36    0    0.7902% 
2           2 unit(s) on 35:1    72    0    1.5918% 
3           3 unit(s) on 35:1    108    0    2.4124% 
4           3 unit(s) on 35:1    109    1    3.2048% 
5           3 unit(s) on 35:1    110    2    4.0083% 
6           3 unit(s) on 35:1    111    3    4.8302% 
7           3 unit(s) on 35:1    112    4    5.6249% 
8           1 unit on 2:1    10    7    6.4303% 
9           3 unit(s) on 35:1    114    6    7.2539% 
10           10 unit(s) on 11:1    120    0    8.1081% 
11           1 unit on 35:1    46    10    8.9005% 
12           2 unit(s) on 35:1    82    10    9.7058% 
13           3 unit(s) on 35:1    118    10    10.5402% 
14           3 unit(s) on 35:1    119    11    11.3362% 
15           3 unit(s) on 35:1    120    12    12.1462% 
16           6 unit(s) on 17:1    118    10    12.9722% 
17           6 unit(s) on 17:1    119    11    13.7719% 
18           6 unit(s) on 17:1    120    12    14.5866% 
19           9 unit(s) on 11:1    118    10    15.4042% 
20           20 unit(s) on 5:1    120    0    16.2162% 
21           9 unit(s) on 11:1    120    12    17.0270% 
22           12 unit(s) on 8:1    118    10    17.8363% 
23           12 unit(s) on 8:1    119    11    18.6433% 
24           12 unit(s) on 8:1    120    12    19.4674% 
25           1 unit on 35:1    60    24    20.2644% 
26           2 unit(s) on 35:1    96    24    21.0763% 
27           8 unit(s) on 11:1    115    19    21.8901% 
28           8 unit(s) on 11:1    116    20    22.7085% 
29           8 unit(s) on 11:1    117    21    23.5258% 
30           18 unit(s) on 5:1    120    12    24.3481% 
31           11 unit(s) on 8:1    119    20    25.1681% 
32           8 unit(s) on 11:1    120    24    25.9970% 
33           1 unit on 35:1    68    32    26.7966% 
34           2 unit(s) on 35:1    104    32    27.6140% 
35           5 unit(s) on 17:1    120    30    28.4374% 
36           1 unit on 35:1    71    35    29.2381% 
37           2 unit(s) on 35:1    107    35    30.0578% 
38           7 unit(s) on 11:1    115    31    30.8623% 
39           7 unit(s) on 11:1    116    32    31.6963% 
40           16 unit(s) on 5:1    120    24    32.5267% 
41           1 unit on 35:1    76    40    33.3294% 
42           7 unit(s) on 11:1    119    35    34.1604% 
43           7 unit(s) on 11:1    120    36    34.9755% 
44           2 unit(s) on 35:1    114    42    35.7914% 
45           15 unit(s) on 5:1    120    30    36.6160% 
46           2 unit(s) on 35:1    116    44    37.4264% 
47           2 unit(s) on 35:1    117    45    38.2528% 
48           9 unit(s) on 8:1    120    39    39.0805% 
49           2 unit(s) on 35:1    119    47    39.8952% 
50           2 unit(s) on 35:1    120    48    40.7269% 
51           4 unit(s) on 17:1    119    47    41.5376% 
52           4 unit(s) on 17:1    120    48    42.3734% 
53           1 unit on 35:1    88    52    43.1811% 
54           6 unit(s) on 11:1    120    48    44.0199% 
55           13 unit(s) on 5:1    120    42    44.8371% 
56           8 unit(s) on 8:1    120    48    45.6664% 
57           1 unit on 35:1    92    56    46.4756% 
58           1 unit on 35:1    93    57    47.2857% 
59           3 unit(s) on 17:1    110    56    48.1169% 
60           12 unit(s) on 5:1    120    48    48.9593% 
61           1 unit on 35:1    96    60    49.7712% 
62           7 unit(s) on 8:1    118    55    50.5946% 
63           7 unit(s) on 8:1    119    56    51.4345% 
64           7 unit(s) on 8:1    120    57    52.2620% 
65           11 unit(s) on 5:1    120    54    53.0977% 
66           1 unit on 35:1    101    65    53.9128% 
67           3 unit(s) on 17:1    118    64    54.7394% 
68           3 unit(s) on 17:1    119    65    55.5801% 
69           3 unit(s) on 17:1    120    66    56.4040% 
70           10 unit(s) on 5:1    120    60    57.2362% 
71           6 unit(s) on 8:1    119    65    58.0624% 
72           6 unit(s) on 8:1    120    66    58.8952% 
73           1 unit on 35:1    108    72    59.7159% 
74           4 unit(s) on 11:1    118    70    60.5490% 
75           9 unit(s) on 5:1    120    66    61.3864% 
76           4 unit(s) on 11:1    120    72    62.2280% 
77           1 unit on 35:1    112    76    63.0529% 
78           1 unit on 35:1    113    77    63.8789% 
79           5 unit(s) on 8:1    119    74    64.7081% 
80           5 unit(s) on 8:1    120    75    65.5608% 
81           1 unit on 35:1    116    80    66.3913% 
82           1 unit on 35:1    117    81    67.2234% 
83           1 unit on 35:1    118    82    68.0577% 
84           1 unit on 35:1    119    83    68.8946% 
85           7 unit(s) on 5:1    120    78    69.7363% 
86           2 unit(s) on 17:1    120    84    70.5759% 
87           3 unit(s) on 11:1    120    84    71.4166% 
88           4 unit(s) on 8:1    120    84    72.2573% 
89           1 unit on 17:1    106    88    73.0831% 
90           6 unit(s) on 5:1    120    84    73.9387% 
91           1 unit on 17:1    108    90    74.7669% 
92           2 unit(s) on 11:1    114    90    75.6063% 
93           3 unit(s) on 8:1    117    90    76.4511% 
94           13 unit(s) on 2:1    120    81    77.2914% 
95           5 unit(s) on 5:1    120    90    78.1648% 
96           1 unit on 17:1    113    95    79.0000% 
97           2 unit(s) on 11:1    119    95    79.8559% 
98           2 unit(s) on 11:1    120    96    80.7027% 
99           4 unit(s) on 5:1    119    95    81.5469% 
100           4 unit(s) on 5:1    120    96    82.4054% 
101           1 unit on 17:1    118    100    83.2534% 
102           1 unit on 17:1    119    101    84.1057% 
103           1 unit on 17:1    120    102    84.9649% 
104           2 unit(s) on 8:1    120    102    85.8240% 
105           3 unit(s) on 5:1    120    102    86.6832% 
106           1 unit on 11:1    117    105    87.5342% 
107           1 unit on 11:1    118    106    88.3904% 
108           6 unit(s) on 2:1    120    102    89.2606% 
109           1 unit on 11:1    120    108    90.1314% 
110           2 unit(s) on 5:1    120    108    91.0021% 
111           1 unit on 8:1    119    110    91.8691% 
112           1 unit on 8:1    120    111    92.7481% 
113           1 unit on 5:1    118    112    93.6150% 
114           3 unit(s) on 2:1    120    111    94.5061% 
115           1 unit on 5:1    120    114    95.3970% 
116           2 unit(s) on 2:1    120    114    96.2879% 
117           3 unit(s) on 1:1    120    114    97.1788% 
118           1 unit on 2:1    120    117    98.0938% 
119           1 unit on 1:1    120    118    99.0211% 
120    no bet    -    -    100.0000% 

mr.ore

From my tests I would say, that it is better to use the table as a positive progression, and start with lower bankroll and make sessions from that, there can be some nice upswings, but also long times of no win, of course. If you start with 105 units, it tanks too often in my opinion, wins are small and cannot make up for losing ones. I have seen several loses killing it and only maybe two or three wins in between. On the other way, several times it survived 10000 spins and in the end returned to positive. Other times the 10000 spins window was just a losing graph. Be warned, it can fluctuate very much. But probability of ONE win is maximised, price is that you either win 15 units or lose all 105, nothing in between.

beretta28

Thanks
You are probably right for my progression.
My experience is  that also positive progressions are a slow way to the agony and death.
It's a matter of time!
Guetting ,Pluscuop,Maxxpro,D'Alencon tested as positive progressions hundreds times.
Small losses very frequent,big wins every now and then that don't offset previous losses.
But I agree negative progression are kamikaze behaviours.
IÃÆ'Ã,¬ll try your table,that is dangerous too,I'm afraid.

I don't Know a more solid progression of  a Marty eleven terms(the maximum possible in Montecarlo,1023 units!):Risk of ruin 1/1524 attacks,but exposed to house edge on high terms!!

Headache......

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