Why you can beat a negative expectation game

[Red Nickels]

They say it is impossible to beat a negative expectation game like roulette because it doesn't matter how you bet or how much you bet, each bet will have a negative expectation and the sum total of your bets will still have a negative expectation (no matter how you might increase or decrease your bets or skip or not skip bets.)  This is absolutely true, if you look at the probabilities from a purely mathematical perspective.  And this is why a progressive system will never win, and why the various staking systems do not help.

BUT-- the mathematical predictive models do not take into account clumping, trends, law of third, etc-- however you want to define the regular phenomena of numbers repeating x number of times within a 37/38 spin cycle and all numbers not showing within a 37/38 spin cycle (hint-- or within the next spin cycle.)  My testing and research shows that you can win with flat betting only (and it is foolish to attempt to win by progressing your bets), simply by betting the numbers that have been hitting within these spin cycles.  There are ways to do this and I am not going to describe the detailed mechanics of how to play this way-- I just wanted to point out my-- theory if you will-- that mathematical probabilites do not take into account trending/clumping of groups of numbers, which can be taken advantage of.

[Jordan]

There aren t any trends.
All the thing u say it is just random luck.
Test more and u will find out that u just hit a lucky streak.

[VLS]

Thanks for the post Red Nickels. I just read this after posting my Short-term certainties post:

We both have similar thinking and both have independently reached similar conclusions. Flat betting is the way you must preferably win since you can't skew the hit rate results and hence have more of a certainty to have something real and not a lucky streak.

Notwithstanding this, I am still also open to very soft POSITIVE progressions that have a safe-break mechanism and regress to minimal units after some failed attempts and go back to risen unit value on success, trying to match the good-times and bad-times clumps the game usually exhibits..



The game does behave in some "meta-predictable" way, for which traits are realized when the point of view is shifted from the numbers themselves and a time dimension is attached to it (i.e. considering events in the timeline instead of isolated numbers).

[Red Nickels]

There aren't any trends.
All the thing you say it is just random luck.
Test more and you will find out that you just hit a lucky streak.

.......... well, I think we can agree that you won't see 37/38 numbers hitting in 37/38 spins, or even half as many numbers hitting in half as many spins is unusual, and/or even all the numbers hitting within twice as many (74/76) spins is unusual.  that means that groups of numbers are trending within the spin cycles, as I see it.

thanks Victor I will study what you wrote.

[Twisteruk]

.......... well, I think we can agree that you won't see 37/38 numbers hitting in 37/38 spins,

Yep very true. You will never see that in your lifetime.......

Its the same as seeing ONE NUMBER repeat 37/38 times in a row !

[VLS]

In my opinion numbers are irrelevant, it is the framework you place them in what matters (i.e. the same numerical sequence can trigger a vast array of events).

Furthermore, the "start" and "end" of a numerical sample can be any part of the data stream, so what you have focus in is:

a) The spin window itself (amount of spins within the start and end point).

b) The amount of numerical coverage for your event, and its relation to the start point (statistical zone).

c) The TIME DIMENSION (or timeline) of the spins you are currently experiencing. (is the current tram a positive one? a negative one? are the values complying with the overall statistics at present or is there currently a random walk?... and act accordingly).

Kindly refer to my post: Roulette’s dirty little secret.

Victor

[VLS]

My testing and research shows that you can win with flat betting only

Dear Red Nickels,

Is this testing and research something we can debate here?

Maybe you can think of offering a series of threads to shed some light on it? (Just curious here).

I'm always interested in debating this approach.

Many thanks for your answers.

[Red Nickels]

Well I can only tell you what I have been observing in regards to two spin cycles of 38 spins (I play 00 wheels and count 0 as a red number and 00 as a black number.)  so I am tracking 19 red and 19 black numbers.  in 76 spins it is unusual for all of the numbers to hit-- which is helpful to the success of the system.  after 38 spins I have a way of tracking a rolling 38 spin cycle, and will bet on the red and black numbers that have hit within the last 38 (no matter where we are in the spin count, numbers that hit previous to the last 38 come off the bet target list, and new numbers within the last 38 are added-- so an immediate repeat is always bet on, along with any other numbers that hit at any point, and no matter how many times, within the last 38.)  I will pick either the target red numbers or the target black numbers for the current bet.  we can expect to win at least half our bets as far as correctly picking red or black (could be any even chance-- but I prefer R/B because it is evenly distributed all the way around the wheel including the 0/red and 00/black.)  because I am only betting around 10 to 14 of the red or black numbers, the wins are always greater than the losses (when you hit-- ofcourse you could be right on the color but miss on a sleeper.)

as to how to pick red or black for the next bet I am open to suggestion.  theoretically you should be 50% correct by consistently betting just R or just B every bet, or switching between R and B every bet, or play FTL, or second previous (I like second previous because you catch all the runs of same and chops, but ofcourse you lose to the terrible twos (doubles.)  this is where some of the baccarat strategies may be helpful (for picking B or P-- but the system I am working on requires a bet every single spin, or "hand" so we can not skip any bets at all.)  theoretically this kind of play could go on indefinitely after you have the first 38 history, but I currently end the session after the second 38 spin cycle, so betting begins at the 39th spin, and the session ends at spin 76.  ofcourse one of the problems will be to track 38 spins without sitting at the table and then to be sure to get a seat at the table of the wheel you just spent time tracking (without betting, so you could not be sitting at the table-- though the electronic displays will show about half the numbers in the first spin cycle so that speeds things up.)