Pay as you go Martingale?

[GLC]

This idea is a piggy-back off of Ego's latest even chance system in which he stresses that his progression doesn't recover on every win.  It got me to thinking about a system that I've been playing with a 10 step martingale.  I've changed the martingale so that each bet doesn't always recover all previous losses.

If lose       Bet Amt      If win
-1               1              +1
-3               2              +1
-7               4              +1
-14             7                0
-27             13             -1
-51             24             -3
-96             45             -6
-180           84             -12
-336           156           -24
-624           288           -48

As you can see we win +1 on the first 3 bets.  These are the bets we win most on.  As we lose more in a row, we start losing instead of winning, but we are losing less than with a true martingale.  Any win and we start the progression over at 1 unit.  If we lost units on the win, we just take the loss and hope to recover it with the 3 winning bets that we start with.

This is based on the fact that if we have 5000 bets and we always bet for a change in color, we will win 2500 bets at 1 unit.  Of the 2500 bets we lost at 1 unit we will win 1250 of them at our 2 unit bet.  Of the 1250 that we lost we will win 625 of them at 4 units.  Of the 625 that we lost, we will win 312 at the 7 unit bet level.  So of the 5,000 bets we will win 4687 of them in our 1st 4 bets.  Most of these will net us +1 unit except for the 7 unit bets which will cause us to break even.

After the 7 unit break even bet, we start losing a small but increasing amount until we get to the 10th loss.  On a regular martingale we would lose -1023 units, but with this modified martingale we only lose -624.

I have been testing this playing Red/Black.  I track for 5 spins then I bet that those 5 spins will not repeat in the next 5 spins and if they do, I bet that they won't repeat in the next 5 spins.  That means, in order for me to lose all 10 bets a 5 spin series of Reds/Blacks will have to repeat exactly 3 times in a row.

Comments please.

GLC

[Dutchy]

   George,
                I like your ideas on this one.1023 units for a full martingale versus 624 with your modified version.This should appeal to those playing the full martingale and trying to lower their bets.Like you note,you are winning at a 93.7% with your first 4 bets.So a pretty good chance of coming out of it with a few units.
                And to top it off your bet selection is spot on.If the first 5 bets do repeat(highly unlikely)you bet back again that they won't repeat.There was a post by Rolf Harris and he liked the same idea,playing against the last 5 colors spun.Maybe your modified martingale would be good for his anti-streak method as well.

[GLC]

Thanks for your comments Dutchy.  I've been testing this and it pulls in 50 units pretty quickly.

I know it doesn't negate the overall house edge, but with a tiny amount of luck, we could get quite a bit ahead before our 1st loss.  Maybe even stay ahead of the game for as long as we want to play it.

There is always the possibility of hitting a total progression loss before winning enough to cover it.  Since this is gambling, anything is possible.

I'll have a look at Rolph's anti system to refresh my memory.

GLC

[ausjase]

hi GLC
i like basic strategies like betting that the previous 5 red/black wont repeat. Are u betting for just 1 win per line ??
Cheers jase

[GLC]

hi GLC
i like basic strategies like betting that the previous 5 red/black won't repeat. Are u betting for just 1 win per line ??
Cheers jase

Yes.  We follow the progression until we win and we reset to 1 unit after every win.

Let's say we have BRRRB as our last 5 spins we start betting that BRRRB won't become BRRRBBRRRBBRRRB.  That's BRRRB repeated 3 times in a row.  If we win on one of the 1st 3 bets (1-2-4) we will win 1 unit.  If we win on the 4th bet (7) we will break even.  If we win on any bet after that we will lose some units.  The further along the line we lose at the more units we will lose.  But, the further along the line we lose at the fewer times we will reach that point.

The hope is that we will win enough times at 1-2-4-7 to keep us in the winning area.  Eventually we will lose 10 bets in a row and have to give up 624 units but that's better than having to give up 1023 units on a 10th bet loss.

I have often advocated considering only 5-10% of winnings as true wins when playing a steep progression because eventually you will have to pay the piper.  With this idea, we  pay the piper a little sooner and in smaller doses as we go along.

This progression is just a suggestion.  You can tweak it any way you wish.  For example you could start out with 1-2-4-8-15 etc... to front load it more.  Or you could play 1-2-3-6-11 etc... to keep the bet sizes smaller. 

I've also put one together for a dozen bet:

If lose    Bet amt     If win
-1              1           +2
-2              1           +1
-4              2           +2
-7              3           +2
-11            4           +1
-17            6           +1
-26            9           +1
-39            13           0
-58            19         -1
-85            27         -4
-124          39         -7
-179          55         -14
-255          76         -27
-356          101       -54
-480          124       -108
-639          159       -162

I have tested the above progression on a single dozen betting the penultimate dozen with excellent results.

Cheers,

GLC