Probability for 13 in a row.

[Ralph]

What is the probability of 13 Evens in the row?


Prof Ralph says, 100%


Never heard such mathematics wizard, in my entire life.


Prof Bayes, please enlighten me.

The 13 reds were allready done, that is 100%, if it will happen once again on not yet done spins is something different.
The question was the probability of something allready had happen to happen, which must be 100%, as it can not change!


It must be 100% otherwise one more in a row, which not is yet done will have a different probability than the odds for one spin.
If we have 13 the probability of it will be 14 is 50% on a NOZ, next red is 50% the same.

[Blood Angel]

@ Drazen

You say that you get very low Drawdowns. I know its impossible to give a definite answer to this question but what do those drawdowns look like over say 100 spins? 5 units max... 10? Roughly.

[Drazen]

Blood Angel

I was going about 10-15 units in the worst case. But I am ready for much more unpleasnt things. I am prepared for black swans anyhow   

If we have 13 the probability of it will be 14 is 50% on a NOZ, next red is 50% the same.

You are saying it wrong and this for the last time I will correct you. I dont intend to pretend smart or saying that I am stats guru, but you have deal of ignorance here my friend.

50% chance is if any spin would be observed or interpreted independantly and only for that next spin and it can be after any point. But if you would like to say probability of 13 in a row it cant 50%.

You said it right how should be calculated earlier on 1 st page and now you say this? It is weird how you are contrasting to yourself..

That is called conditionaly probability and using it isnt any kind of fallacy.

Best

Drazen

[Turner]

Black swan is a surprise or rare event Turner.
link:://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory

Once in a Preston guild
Once in a blue moon
Rocking horse s*it
Hens teeth
But black swan?...never heard that phrase in my life.
You learn something  everyday.

[Blood Angel]

Blood Angel

I was going about 10-15 units in the worst case. But I am ready for much more unpleasnt things. I am prepared for black swans anyhow   

Thank you for your straight forward answer. I appreciate it.

[Ralph]

Blood Angel

I was going about 10-15 units in the worst case. But I am ready for much more unpleasnt things. I am prepared for black swans anyhow   

You are saying it wrong and this for the last time I will correct you. I don't intend to pretend smart or saying that I am stats guru, but you have deal of ignorance here my friend.

50% chance is if any spin would be observed or interpreted independantly and only for that next spin and it can be after any point. But if you would like to say probability of 13 in a row it can't 50%.

You said it right how should be calculated earlier on 1 st page and now you say this? It is weird how you are contrasting to yourself..

That is called conditionaly probability and using it isnt any kind of fallacy.

Best

Drazen

I think here is a missunderstanding, when we not use our native languages.  From the start one ask me for the probability of something which had allready happen.

[Serendipity]

What you see as a balance or correction is nothing but myth. Every number is equally likely to hit, unless biased, so gradually they all get almost equal in a large sample of data. This is called, "Law of large numbers".

so balance or correction is nothing but myth. Why are they all get almost equal eventually?... I see a contradiction here

[Drazen]

Well probably then. Sorry Ralph, my apologies. it anyhow makes no sense then you say something, then defending opposite lol

But I agree probability for something that just happened could be 100% as it just happened?

Drazen

[kingsroulette]

[size=78%]I think here is a missunderstanding, when we not use our native languages.  From the start one ask me for the probability of something which had allready happen.[/size]

                Really?  One who asked this question is more intelligent than you if he meant to ask for what has already happened. It is like asking on Sunday as to what is the probability of yesterday being a Saturday.


I can't laugh enough on the wisdom that a few guy possess. I thought probability is all about debating the odds of happening or non happening of any event. Never heard of probability questions like: what is the probability of having 7 days in a week or something like that.
Genius.

[iggiv]

Kingsroulette, i want to advice you to limit your genius evaluations to roulette methods only, not to extend them to  their author personalities. thanks.

Such evaluations don't help anything except creating mutual conflicts.