An A-Z staking plan

[nottophammer]

This game we're playing, is Fixed Odds Betting, correct
Okay we know the return on our bets, correct
Slightly off track now.
Do you agree that in spins 11-40 we get 15.7/15.8 non-hits.
I'll await some replies.
1-4 number layers need not reply.
Thanks

[tuddilue]

Yes average says 7-5-3 = 15
So that is a start 

[NextYear]

Agree...

[nottophammer]

Now i'm not promoting this persons idea.
Andruchi
What did Bayes show, the idea is 1,1,2, so the example was bet for the 21st non-hit, 17,17, 34

Whats interesting in 1,1,2

A clue, think of average.

More to come

[nottophammer]

So openning the topic we are looking at non-hit numbers.
This is why said 1-4 number bettors no need to comment, thanks.

The clue average. Well, i last posted a copy of the average document in KTF reply 1389, covers 200 games.
Answer to the clue is 2, why 2, because on average a nonhit,hits within 2 spins.
In the document you can see at bottom average for 100plus and for 100 games. Not far now from 300 games, but i tell you now the average for 100,200 and 300 games is as close as you could get.

Even the max to hit is similar.

So what we are seeing is to bet only twice for the non-hit.
Now the big question the staking plan

[nottophammer]

KTF 22.09.16

Code Select Expand

Spin No. Repeat? Non-hit count Progression Result Bank
1 11 37
2 33 36
3 17 35
4 2 34
5 6 33
6 9 32
7 23 31
8 33 R 30
9 5 30
10 1 29
11 34 28 1 8 8
12 32 27 1 9 17
13 4 26 1 10 27
14 7 25 1 11 38
15 2 R 24 1 -24 14
16 21 24 2 24 38
17 10 23 1 13 51
18 9 R 22 1 -22 29
19 12 22 2 28 57
20 13 21 1 15 72
21 6 R 20 1 -20 52
22 36 20 2 32 84
23 0 19 1 17 101
24 9 R 18 1 -18 83
25 30 18 2 36 119
26 11 R 17 1 -17 102
27 13 R 17 2 -34 68
28 2 R 17 3 -51 17
29 26 17 4 76 93
30 20 16 3 60 153
31 28 15 2 42 195
32 28 R 14 1 -14 181
33 10 R 14 2 -28 153
34 23 R 14 3 -42 111
35 2 R 14 4 -56 55
36 2 R 14 5 -70 -15
37 36 R 14 6 -84 -99
38 31 14 7 154 55
39 21 R 13 6 -78 -23
40 31 R 13 7 -91 -114
41 31 R 13 8 -104 -218
42 15 13 9 207 -11
43 34 R 12 8 -96 -107
44 16 12 9 216 109
45 3 11 8 200 309
46 21 R 10 7 -70 239
47 35 10 8 208 447
48 4 R 9 7 -63 384
49 21 R 9 8 -72 312
50 0 R 9 9 -81 231
51 15 R 9 10 -90 141
52 10 R 9 11 -99 42
53 2 R 9 12 -108 -66
54 16 R 9 13 -117 -183
55 13 R 9 14 -126 -309
56 10 R 9 15 -135 -444
57 34 R 9 16 -144 -588
58 26 R 9 17 -153 -741
59 33 R 9 18 -162 -903
60 18 9 19 513 -390

Mortagon 22.09.16

Code Select Expand

Spin No. Repeat? Non-hit count Progression Result Bank
1 26 37
2 20 36
3 31 35
4 18 34
5 23 33
6 14 32
7 34 31
8 2 30
9 16 29
10 23 R 28
11 33 28 1 8 8
12 19 27 1 9 17
13 2 R 26 1 -26 -9
14 29 26 2 20 11
15 36 25 1 11 22
16 28 24 1 12 34
17 0 23 1 13 47
18 1 22 1 14 61
19 14 R 21 1 -21 40
20 9 21 2 30 70
21 27 20 1 16 86
22 13 19 1 17 103
23 21 18 1 18 121
24 0 R 17 1 -17 104
25 34 R 17 2 -34 70
26 30 17 3 57 127
27 36 R 16 2 -32 95
28 28 R 16 3 -48 47
29 24 16 4 80 127
30 16 R 15 3 -45 82
31 29 R 15 4 -60 22
32 29 R 15 5 -75 -53
33 24 R 15 6 -90 -143
34 36 R 15 7 -105 -248
35 21 R 15 8 -120 -368
36 18 R 15 9 -135 -503
37 19 R 15 10 -150 -653
38 30 R 15 11 -165 -818
39 6 15 12 252 -566
40 0 R 14 11 -154 -720
41 26 R 14 12 -168 -888
42 18 R 14 13 -182 -1070
43 2 R 14 14 -196 -1266
44 18 R 14 15 -210 -1476
45 27 R 14 16 -224 -1700
46 35 14 17 374 -1326
47 25 13 16 368 -958
48 28 R 12 15 -180 -1138
49 28 R 12 16 -192 -1330
50 26 R 12 17 -204 -1534
51 8 12 18 432 -1102
52 7 11 17 425 -677
53 12 10 16 416 -261
54 29 R 9 15 -135 -396
55 28 R 9 16 -144 -540
56 9 R 9 17 -153 -693
57 31 R 9 18 -162 -855
58 24 R 9 19 -171 -1026
59 25 R 9 20 -180 -1206
60 34 R 9 21 -189 -1395


So the KTF way wins on both, but what if you only bet twice

[nottophammer]

spins 1-10   9/10  9 non-hit
Jackpot #'s from spin 11-20
  #           non-hit    stake     return
34           10             Â£28        £36
32           11               27          36
   4           12               26          36
   7           13               25          36
   2            R                24           0
21           14               72          108
10           15               23          36
   9            R                22           0
12           16               66          108
13           17               21          36           so +98

[nottophammer]

stakes
27    1,4     27,108
26    1,4     26,104
25    1,4     25,100
24    1,3     24, 72
23    1,3     23, 69
22    1,3
21    1,3
20    1,3
19    1,2
18    1,2 
use the avg doc in KTF reply 1389 page 93, let me know     

[nottophammer]

Mortagons today
spins 1-10  9/10  so 9 non-hit
#         non-hit        stake     return
33          10                28         36
19          11                27         36
  2           R                 26          0
29          12                104       144
36          13                25         36
28          14                24         36
  0          15                23         36
  1          16                22         36
14           R                 21          0
  9          17                63         108
Off to the tattoo shop see you soon

[tuddilue]

Mortagons today
spins 1-10  9/10  so 9 non-hit
#         non-hit        stake     return
33          10                28         36
19          11                27         36
  2           R                 26          0
29          12                104       144
36          13                25         36
28          14                24         36
  0          15                23         36
  1          16                22         36
14           R                 21          0
  9          17                63         108
Off to the tattoo shop see you soon

The interesting part is when you do this kind of bet when the R is more than one, for example:
Mortagon 22.09.16
...
24   0        R      17         1
25   34     R      17         2
26   30              17         3
27   36     R      16         2
28   28     R      16         3
29   24              16         4
30   16    R       15         3

How do you handle that?
Good luck with the tattoo! Can we see a picture?
- Tuddilue

[nottophammer]

The interesting part is when you do this kind of bet when the R is more than one, for example:
Mortagon 22.09.16
...
24   0        R      17         1
25   34     R      17         2
26   30              17         3
27   36     R      16         2
28   28     R      16         3
29   24              16         4
30   16    R       15         3

How do you handle that?
Good luck with the tattoo! Can we see a picture?
- Tuddilue

Hi Tudd
what you show is Andruchi betting 17. So in the average document after 19th non-hit, the 20th to 26th average to hit in 3 spins, so here its a win, win for betting 17 and 16, with 1,1,2

So the KTF way wins on both, but what if you only bet twice

This is still being looked at, but as average to come in is 3 spins for 20 to 26 and 4 spins 27th to 30th, would we just bet for 3 spins, then when going for the 27th to 30th just bet 4 times? So to get the 27th non-hit we would be betting 11 #'s, so would we do Andruchi, say 1,1,1,2

[tuddilue]

Hi Tudd
what you show is Andruchi betting 17. So in the average document after 19th non-hit, the 20th to 26th average to hit in 3 spins, so here its a win, win for betting 17 and 16, with 1,1,2
This is still being looked at, but as average to come in is 3 spins for 20 to 26 and 4 spins 27th to 30th, would we just bet for 3 spins, then when going for the 27th to 30th just bet 4 times? So to get the 27th non-hit we would be betting 11 #'s, so would we do Andruchi, say 1,1,1,2

Thanks notto!
Interesting approach. The non hit is always hard to bet. But with only betting 1,1,2 or later 1,1,1,2 looks really promising..

It's always hard to handle streaks of R when betting non hit.
If we say we have a streak of R,R,R in 11-20. Then you loose 1,1,2, how do you handle this?
Take the loss and start betting 1,1,2 again or how do you think?
- Tuddilue