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Random thoughts on randomizers and random numbers and RNGs

Started by TwoCatSam, Aug 16, 12:17 PM 2012

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TwoCatSam

Pick a number.  That's your bet.

Say it's 14.

Nick just said in another post that a number can sleep 641 spins.

So, truth be, I could give you numbers for 640 spins, never give you a 14, and still meet the test of random.

winkel once laid out a scenerio where he could beat any numbers you picked and his picks would still meet the test of random.

Question:  If a casino is giving me truly random numbers, can they not be random numbers designed to beat me?  Someone (forgive me) alluded to this with the 60 spin setting at BV.

The bigger question:  If they were deliberately beating me with truly random numbers, could any audit ever find it?

Let's discuss this, please.

Sam
If dogs don't go to heaven, when I die I want to go where dogs go.  ...Will Rogers

Bayes

Quote from: TwoCatSam on Aug 16, 12:17 PM 2012
Question:  If a casino is giving me truly random numbers, can they not be random numbers designed to beat me?  Someone (forgive me) alluded to this with the 60 spin setting at BV.

Sam, if they were truly random numbers, how could they be designed? Sorry, but the 2 premises seem contradictory to me.

"The trouble isn't what we don't know, it's what we think we know that just ain't so!" - Mark Twain

VLS

Hello Sam,

...This debate reminds me of the story of the blind man eating grapes with the kid. "One for you, one for me" was the deal. They take turns until the blind man takes three grapes at once. He eats the grapes, then says "Cheater!", "You are a cheater Kid". -Why? (Asks the kid).
-Well, it's clear to me: if you aren't complaining when I have three, it means you yourself are having more.

That's exactly as the "RNG soup" looks like to me.

Given a live game with regular conditions, they kick out the player who beats those conditions. Yet offer the player an invitation to keep on betting and continue their gaming on their computer-generated games.
They are keen to forbid winning methodologies on the actual live roulette, but are happy to let the banned players use the very same methods on their RNG  :question:

With them always arguing RNG roulette is "the same as a Live wheel with more convenience" (regular stock answer), plus the lack of an actual straight reply on why they do differentiate live and RNG games (banning one over the other), It DOES make you think.


Like Paul cleverly puts it:


Quote from: Twisteruk on Jul 23, 11:07 AM 2012
that's it in a nutshell, I won't get a straight answer
It does make you wonder why they would be happy for me to play their RNG but not their Live Wheel.....
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TwoCatSam

Bayes

Perhaps I worded it wrong.  OK, it's not true random, but it could pass a test as random.  How could you ever prove it is not random?

Vic

Well said.  Makes a body think, doesn't it?

Sam
If dogs don't go to heaven, when I die I want to go where dogs go.  ...Will Rogers

Bayes

Sam,

There are statistical tests which will tell you if the data isn't random, but there is still a fairly large window of opportunity for the casino to cheat, if it had a mind to. It would be practically impossible to identify cheating in some cases, especially if you're using a progression and are at or near the house limit. Just a few outcomes one way or the other is enough to wipe out your bank, but wouldn't be enough to indicate the outcomes were rigged, statistically speaking.

@ Vic, that example is a bit overworked in my opinion, let's not get carried away and think that it's representative of ALL online casinos. "start your own casino.com" was a fly-by-nighter and it didn't take long for it to be exposed. It's a very competitive business and I believe that such blatantly crooked business practices are the rare exception rather than the rule. And as for Will hill, they're just a bunch of W*nkers!  ;D

But still, it's a good question: WHY should it be ok to play the RNG when you've been banned from the live wheel? One thing about RNG is that a machine dishes out the numbers, so there's no possibility for any croupier-punter collusion, they maybe more concerned about the croupiers cheating than the players, especially if they think that outcomes can be controlled to a certain extent.
"The trouble isn't what we don't know, it's what we think we know that just ain't so!" - Mark Twain

superman

QuoteOne thing about RNG is that a machine dishes out the numbers, so there's no possibility for any croupier-punter collusion, they maybe more concerned about the croupiers cheating than the players, especially if they think that outcomes can be controlled to a certain extent.

I was going to say just about the same thing, my reasoning is, you get the same cr@p runs with a normal RNG on your pc and in RXTreme as you do at an online RNG casino, and the debate goes oooooooooonnnnnnnn lol
There's only one way forward, follow random, don't fight with it!

Ignore a thread/topic that mentions 'stop loss', 'virtual loss' and also when a list is provided of a progression, mechanical does NOT work!

TwoCatSam

Thanks, Bayes.

Again, it shakes out to the ol' "we just don't know".  Much like Superman said.

Still, it's fun for me to investigate the matter.  Otherwise, I'd just shuck RNG casinos and move on.

One thing I'm 99.9% sure about:  Roulette Evolution is fair.  And it's RNG.

Sam
If dogs don't go to heaven, when I die I want to go where dogs go.  ...Will Rogers

VLS

 
Quote from: Bayes on Aug 17, 04:36 AM 2012
@ Vic, that example is a bit overworked in my opinion, let's not get carried away and think that it's representative of ALL online casinos. "start your own casino.com" was a fly-by-nighter and it didn't take long for it to be exposed. It's a very competitive business and I believe that such blatantly crooked business practices are the rare exception rather than the rule. And as for Will hill, they're just a bunch of W*nkers!
Agreed, I've edited-out the crappy fly-by-night.

Still, the trick of re-trying the RNG and picking a less hurting outcome for the casino (according to the currently-laid bets) is a very alive posibility. They use certified independent-spin true random generating devices, so wether you skip results and retry them, the resulting stream still conforms to being generated by a "TRUE RNG", keeping its expected properties.

Oh! and let me reiterate; this is a thread for "Random Thoughts" and I'm speaking in the terms of what's physically possible. As a fellow programmer you know how trivial it is to code such as cheating routine. i.e. pseudocode:
procedure cheatNumber()
    if negative(number) then
         generateAgain()
    end if
end procedure


It's no artificial intelligence or system recognition. It's as simple as comparing the number coming from the hardware RNG to the numbers bet by the players this spin, consider the overall amount on each number and act accordingly, retrying it until any among the lesser "hurting" numbers for the operator is spun.

Do notice the “S” in PlayerS.

Such a routine can be triggered when THE PLAYERS AS A WHOLE are draining the allocated resource limit, which leads the RNG to go into cheat-mode as a reaction on how the particular GROUP of players is doing. Sadly the punters don't have access to how others are doing, so they are LITERALLY subject to the good will of the RNG operator. If they are wilfully allowing the RNG to produce losses and hurting their wallets while they just watch the damage to their bank accounts like lambs or if they do have anti-debt measures in the programs they control.

It's not a matter of cheating a player, but CHEATING THE WHOLE GROUP OF PLAYERS, when they are depleting the allocated resources as set by the operator. Punter losses add up to the pool of resources in real-time and it becomes less cheating, including times where players are naturally cancelling each other's bet with a profit to the operator and there's not even a need to incur into their "safety" mechanism (yes those are the true fair lapses for the rng); but still there are times on which cheating can be going in full scale, sadly particularly true when a player is betting heavy, such as when using progressions. The cheating mode can be easily triggered as more resources are draining and other punters are betting smaller than the progressive bettor. Such conditions can look to a particular player as if the RNG is cheating *him*, but it is just a case of “wrong time, wrong place”. They are only concerned on the group and their bottom-line; not specifically targeting a single player.

Quote from: Bayes on Aug 17, 04:36 AM 2012
But still, it's a good question: WHY should it be ok to play the RNG when you've been banned from the live wheel? One thing about RNG is that a machine dishes out the numbers, so there's no possibility for any croupier-punter collusion, they maybe more concerned about the croupiers cheating than the players, especially if they think that outcomes can be controlled to a certain extent.


Why? It's the control, it's the control!!
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TwoCatSam

Vic and Bayes

This is what the ol' cat man wanted in this thread.  Good, thoughtful, honest debate.  Thank you both.

@Vic

As Warrior or someone said, you can ask for 60 spins at a time from BV.  Those 60 are "etched in stone".  So if I'm playing X and I start at spin 1 and switch to Y, there's no way they could be sending numbers to beat me as they are already chosen.

That was my idea behind this thread.

I'm very exhausted from playing back-a-rat, but when I recover, I will read your post more thoroughly.

Sam



If dogs don't go to heaven, when I die I want to go where dogs go.  ...Will Rogers

superman

QuoteThose 60 are "etched in stone".  So if I'm playing X and I start at spin 1 and switch to Y, there's no way they could be sending numbers to beat me as they are already chosen

Spot on Sam, atleast we know BV can't cheat us, unless we just play a certain bet continually they could deliver the next x spins to kill us off. Other casinos 'could' and some probably do as Vic has said "deliver the number that will least affect their payout" impossible to prove.
There's only one way forward, follow random, don't fight with it!

Ignore a thread/topic that mentions 'stop loss', 'virtual loss' and also when a list is provided of a progression, mechanical does NOT work!

TwoCatSam

Man-O-Steel

I will work on that!  Switch every 60 spins.  Drive them nuts!!

I LOVE IT!!

Sam
If dogs don't go to heaven, when I die I want to go where dogs go.  ...Will Rogers

VLS

In order to avoid confusion, perhaps we should use something in the likes of: "Look Ahead" RNG's vs Real-time RNG's :)

Look-ahead RNG's give you the certainty of having the same complying sequence that matches a pre-set key.

Real-time RNG's give you the number on a spin-to-spin basis.

I'm obviously referring to Real-time RNG's that compute the number on-the-fly.




Personally, I stick to the regular, physical game.

Ah! there's something in seeing the bouncy ball in real life and/or being served by a human dealer...
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superman

QuoteIn order to avoid confusion, perhaps we should use something in the likes of: "Look Ahead" RNG's vs Real-time RNG's
:thumbsup:

I've played at Playtech over the years and have to agree, I am not saying they cheat BUT they could if they wanted to, that's when I first started with roulette, since then I still run tests on a playtech paltform and others for real money BUT I bet all 3 on low, 2 on dozen 3 and 1 on line 19/24 with the lowest value chip and only lose on the zero, for money I play at BV NZ as I KNOW I have been dealt X numbers before I start so within those X spins if my play goes belly up, it was me NOT them.

As far as I know, BV are the only ones providing Look Ahead numbers
There's only one way forward, follow random, don't fight with it!

Ignore a thread/topic that mentions 'stop loss', 'virtual loss' and also when a list is provided of a progression, mechanical does NOT work!

Drazen

Quote from: Bayes on Aug 17, 04:36 AM 2012
they maybe more concerned about the croupiers cheating than the players, especially if they think that outcomes can be controlled to a certain extent.


Croupiers are under very strict controls about this.



Helping to someone definitely couldnt pay off to them in the longterm..



Actualy Mr. F_LAT_INO said somewhere they had to do opposite in fact, becasue they were trained to do so...


But it can help for short if croupier is handsome female with which you had very interesting last night... :P


Cheers


Drazen

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