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To Bayes

Started by spike, Sep 26, 07:02 PM 2012

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0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Twisteruk

Quote from: ddarko on Sep 27, 02:39 PM 2012
I couldn't agree with you more Twister  :thumbsup:

Also at quite a few online casino's the max on a number for a live wheel is £50

but

£250 on a number for RNG ??

Why on earth is that ??

O0


You know the answer  :thumbsup:

Its Set In Stone =)

Johnlegend

Quote from: Twisteruk on Sep 27, 02:46 PM 2012

You know the answer  :thumbsup:
I am not so sure guys. I will know a year from now. At the moment theres no difference at BV to Live. But I am playing small. If they are going to cheat it will be when pennies become Euros we shall see.

spike

Quote from: Skakus on Sep 27, 03:22 AM 2012
What's so bad about the odd 30 spins of nonsense?

Because its unplayable. Its hard to put into words the
difference between RNG and real spins. Its like they
both reach their goal, the long term, in equal condition.
But they took different routes getting there. One is
probably not worse than the other, but if you divised your
method using actuals, it might not work as well on an
RNG. So the reverse is probably true also. To say they're
the same in the short term, on a bet to bet basis, doesn't
seem to prove out, to me anyway. The only way I have of
measuring it is my method of play, thats all anybody has.

If it works far better on one than it does the other, there's
obviously a difference in the two. And yes, the results from
the atmospheric noise that random.org gets its samples
from, plays just like a real wheel does.

superman

QuoteIF there was no difference would they not ban you from both ??

Quote£250 on a number for RNG ??
Why on earth is that ??

Because casino owners are led to believe they WILL attain +2.7% profit no matter what at the end of each cycle/month/year/day whatever from an RNG, they probably do too, they still believe there are advantage players that's why they ban live wheel winners.
There's only one way forward, follow random, don't fight with it!

Ignore a thread/topic that mentions 'stop loss', 'virtual loss' and also when a list is provided of a progression, mechanical does NOT work!

Turner

Quote from: superman on Sep 27, 04:48 PM 2012
 
Because casino owners are led to believe they WILL attain +2.7% profit no matter what at the end of each cycle/month/year/day whatever from an RNG, they probably do too, they still believe there are advantage players that's why they ban live wheel winners.

Correct....that's why they burn cards on blackjack. They have to have perspex card shoes and (less pretty) women coming round shuffling cards and stacking the see-through shoes so you can't say the CSM is bent. Transparancy is trust....literally...transparant shoe.

But they burn an amount of cards based on the first card...7 spades, burn 7 cards. Burn a card every hand that you don't see.... and only use half the shoe ( a white card is slid around half way)

All that effort to stop card counting but retain trust with a manual card shoe.

So what do they do with a live roulette wheel to stop advantage play?

You can barely bet after tha ball has left. many casinos make you confirm the bet, which wastes time and the dealer changes spins from very slow to fast regularly, so there is no dealer signature.

They must believe if you are winning on a live wheel....you must be doing some kind of visual ballistics/dealer sig. of some kind because they know 100% (and that's why the bosses all drive Bentleys) that roulette will pay them 2.7%

Turner


TwoCatSam

********I couldn't agree with you more Twister  :thumbsup:

Also at quite a few online casino's the max on a number for a live wheel is £50

but

£250 on a number for RNG ??

Why on earth is that ??********

By Jove, the man made a good point!!
If dogs don't go to heaven, when I die I want to go where dogs go.  ...Will Rogers

vundarosa

Quote from: TwoCatSam on Sep 27, 09:11 PM 2012
********I couldn't agree with you more Twister  :thumbsup:

Also at quite a few online casino's the max on a number for a live wheel is £50

but

£250 on a number for RNG ??

Why on earth is that ??********

By Jove, the man made a good point!!


----------------

william hill, knowing for banning players from live wheels has the same limits for both.....so this can't be it....

vundarosa

vundarosa

Quote from: Twisteruk on Sep 27, 02:18 PM 2012
Well for me it speaks volumes when a Casino (Wankerhill) stop you using their Live Wheel because your winning too much but say you can play their RNG ok

To me that says it all ! IF there was no difference would they not ban you from both ??

And I speak from MY experience because the above happened to ME !

--------------------

like others have said, no dealer signature, vb or adv play in a rng....

<hint> wh must have realised their live dealers are easy to read.... 8)

vundarosa

ddarko

Quote from: vundarosa on Sep 27, 09:49 PM 2012

----------------

william hill, knowing for banning players from live wheels has the same limits for both.....so this can't be it....

vundarosa

I never said it was Billy Hill did I ?

Believe me or don't it makes no odds to me.

O0

vundarosa

Quote from: ddarko on Sep 27, 10:06 PM 2012
I never said it was Billy Hill did I ?

Believe me or don't it makes no odds to me.

O0

---------------

yes you didn't....but you said what you said while in agreement with Twister, so it was in that sence i understood what you said....my point is that the WH, one notorious for banning players from live wheels doesn't have different limits for rng & live and this doesn't mean their rng is fair either......to me this big difference in table limits (if it even exists the way you say it) seems to be a way for the casino to protect itself from VB players....

vundarosa

ddarko

Quote from: vundarosa on Sep 28, 01:20 AM 2012

to me this big difference in table limits (if it even exists the way you say it) seems to be a way for the casino to protect itself from VB players....


Check for yourself  >:( >:( >:( >:( >:(

O0

Twisteruk

Quote from: vundarosa on Sep 27, 09:55 PM 2012

--------------------

like others have said, no dealer signature, vb or adv play in a rng....

<hint> wh must have realised their live dealers are easy to read.... 8)

vundarosa

Yes, ure most likely correct

Its Set In Stone =)

nottophammer

Quote from: spike on Sep 26, 07:02 PM 2012
I saw a question you asked about why RNG's play
differently than actuals. RNG's tend to produce
unreliable results. You'll be playing along and its
just fine, and the RNG will veer off into 30 spins
of nonsense before getting back on track again.

Actuals aren't like that. Once in awhile you'll hit
patches that are confusing, but they don't last long.
You can usually figure out whats happening. RNG's
are just too sporadic for any real play, who has time
to sit around and wait for them to straighten out.

RNG's are pseudo random, fake random, and thats pretty
useless, unless you're a casino tring to make money.
The math guys always say its how it comes out in the
long run that counts, and RNG and actuals are identical
in the long run. The truth is, its how they come out spin
to spin that counts, if you're trying to win. You need reliability
in the short term, where the bets are placed.
Quote from: spike on Sep 27, 03:20 PM 2012
Because its unplayable. Its hard to put into words the
difference between RNG and real spins. Its like they
both reach their goal, the long term, in equal condition.
But they took different routes getting there. One is
probably not worse than the other, but if you divised your
method using actuals, it might not work as well on an
RNG. So the reverse is probably true also. To say they're
the same in the short term, on a bet to bet basis, doesn't
seem to prove out, to me anyway. The only way I have of
measuring it is my method of play, thats all anybody has.

If it works far better on one than it does the other, there's
obviously a difference in the two. And yes, the results from
the atmospheric noise that random.org gets its samples
from, plays just like a real wheel does.
RNG and actuals are identical in the long run. Totally agree.
As you all know i play rng 99% of the time. Over the years i've collected the days plays in groups of 60 spins. I've built an average for the bookies that still runs the same today, just like Jackpot Joys average is building.

I even use the bookies average on the odd occasion i go to b+m, the average works fine, Winkels average at 13,25,37 is spot on even in the bookies.

Unique in x spins works the same on Jackpot joy as it does in the bookies,average
How do you win at roulette, simple, make the right decision

Turner

Notto
What's your overall opinion of the roulette machines in bookies?
I have mentally dismissed them as being fixed but that's not from experience. I have never even seen one.
I would like to form a more positive view.

nottophammer

Turner
As far as i know theres 2 suppliers, Global draw and inspired gaming.

Now if you go in put the realwheel to the back of your mind. When you start theres 11 numbers showing from previous player, 10 on inspired gaming,they use to show last 15,but changed it to 10 for some reason, possibly you could look to see how many are unique.
If like you say you've never played on one, i'd cheap spin 6 d/s noting down the numbers to see how many non hit,hit in 30 spins. What i've seen is after 10 spins the next 30 give 15 point something numbers more than 15.5, so whether you round up to 16 or dismiss to 15 your choice, but me i use 15.

What you see on a live wheel you'll see here,a doz missing for 34spins, seen this on both, long blocks of one colour, like Tam just said columns miss for again 30 +plus spins, i've even seen granps block of 9 miss for 30+spins. I was in grosvenor casino Luton, using SAS's 1,4,7 totally blown apart,as does the bookies.

The best i can say is think of GUT, how the 0x's come,then how the 1x's and >1's behave because when you start theres 37 numbers due.
Jackpot Joy today just look airball spins 11-20 9 non hit, 9 in 10 spins, so to many the 1x's got to come, you'll see this on the bookies FOBT's.

Watch how you chip up singles go from a £1 to £2 instead of £1.20, outside go to £15 then up in £5's, getting you quicker to the maxbet of £100.00

If you collect the data your spins and record you'll see it's balanced at the end of the day.

How do you win at roulette, simple, make the right decision

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