20% win goal but what about......

[MrJ]

All these years, I never really thought about this. I would say that 15% of my roulette methods are based on using a progression and 85%, flat betting.

Lets say we agree on a 20% win goal based on your BR walking into the casino.

Is/should the win goal (regardless of percent) be based ONLY on flat betting?.......or....... can the same 20% also be based on, if I am using a progression?

Two different examples >> A 3K BR, all flat betting. So, a $600 profit and out the door. 
Now, a 3K BR (betting 2 numbers, with progression), should it still be a $600 win goal? Any thoughts?

Ken

[Azim]

If I were you having a 20% win any which way, I would look for the exit ASAP.

Just because, Nobody in the right mind, with the intrest level so low will give you 20% return on your investment.

Just my 2 cents. I could be wrong.

[rouletteKEY]

Wouldn't each method that you use have it's own win goal % based on the risk vs reward of the method?

If it's a steep progression I would expect to have higher wins.  Flat methods that normally perform well wouldn't be as volatile and therefore the win goal vs the bankroll wouldn't necessarily be as high?  On flat betting methods...many I would use would never expose the full bank to loss in a short period of time so there would be ample time to reassess the play and  modify goals on the fly.  With progressions...once you start you are sort of committed...another reason to evaluate the risk vs reward dynamic.

Just to throw another wrench in the works though...most methods using progressions that have played out well for me over the years are actually fairly decent flat bets just made more profitable and stable/predictable (if you can have such a thing in roulette) by the progressions so lighter progression methods may actually be less dangerous than flat betting...every method and it's track record should likely stand on it's own and not just be lumped flat vs. progression I would think

Diverging off your stated question there comes so many variables...time involved in the commute and play would dictate win goals to a certain degree so as just not to waste time without respect to the amount of the bankroll in some cases, particularly if it's a haul to get there or a marathon session is planned.

Bankroll vs playing bankroll are two separate things sometimes as well.  If I take $3000, as in your example, maybe I pull $1000 to get started...if it goes South fast I may want to decide how deep to get into the remainder...so now I essentially have a $2000 bankroll with a $1600 win goal?  A lot of this may just come down to personalities and how you view money management...whether you look at a session as a business undertaking or pleasure with goals and an inherent risk involved.

The topic can spiral wildly out of control in any number of ways I think...but in the end any method that has proven out or is perceived to have a higher risk should by it's very nature then have a higher return...all other things remaining constant.   Player personality and playing style will dictate the answers I would imagine.

[MrJ]

If I were you having a 20% win any which way, I would look for the exit ASAP.

Just because, Nobody in the right mind, with the intrest level so low will give you 20% return on your investment.

Just my 2 cents. I could be wrong.

......again, the percent, I could careless about. Use your own percent if needed (5%)? The question is the SAME. Flat betting vs. a progression. Would you stick to the same percent?

Ken

[marvin]

hey rk

can you enlighten me on this....
when you say risk, is it the number of spots or the number of units?
because you can also risk 26u on 26spot yet your return is only 9. its a high risk low reward thing i guess.

[Azim]

The topic can spiral wildly out of control in any number of ways I think...but in the end any method that has proven out or is perceived to have a higher risk should by it's very nature then have a higher return...all other things remaining constant.   Player personality and playing style will dictate the answers I would imagine.

Being a roulette player myself out in search of a decent winning system. Be it progression or flat I would stick to a 20% to 25%.

Being realistic, all progrssion does is saves you from a bad run. Which can happen anytime and can and will make you reach table limits.

20% - 25% makes me recover my losses in 4-5 sessions. 

BR-> 3000units($1.00 unit)
20% -> 600

With a system that works 9 out of 10 times and a return of 20%, I would still be ahead by 2400units.

Thats how I look at it.

However, like rouletteKEY has said "Everyone is different"

[soggett]

20% - 25% makes me recover my losses in 4-5 sessions. 

that's what I use too


well, I think it depends, I would maybe go for more when playing progressions cause it is easier than flatbetting to get to profit (should be but depends on system)
if you play both at the same time then maybe 5% / 15%   for flat / progression

[D1]

'Two different examples >> A 3K BR, all flat betting. So, a $600 profit and out the door. 
Now, a 3K BR (betting 2 numbers, with progression), should it still be a $600 win goal? Any thoughts?

Ken'

Hi Ken

when I play a progression bet I normally try to win 50% of what Im risking

so if the risk for playing 2 numbers was say 1600 units I would play to try and win 800 units

then when you encounter a lose you need 2 winning sessions to get back on par

but of course It depends really on your profits on the progression bet

Im not saying thats the right way to do it but its what I try for

Dave.

[marvin]

  is that 800u? how many units you bet per spot?

so far mine is only 100u per visit te safest is 50u. if i aim at 50u i havent lose then.

i hope we dont confused that 1u does not necessarily mean $1.

in the case of mr j, his 1u is $5 ... correct me if im wrong.

[D1]

 
Hi Marvin

It is just an extreme example as I know Ken has played some big proggys in the past !!!

[marvin]

 wew that clears it... because if thats true it seems like i am the only loser here

[kevint3]

If you have to stop and think that you won 400 units on a flat method  and another 200 units on a progession method then IMO you are over thinking things too much.