123 Move (Live-Wheel)

[sturrock]

It only "bloody works" 

[warrior]

Keep testing ,they call these bets suicide bumers,sooner or later the shit will hit the fan.

[ignatus]

Keep testing ,they call these bets suicide bumers,sooner or later the shit will hit the fan.

You haven't even seen the pattern or played it, so how can you have an opinion of something you don't know nothing about?

[rouletteKEY]

Maybe I am testing this progression wrong.  Going through an entire 3 spin attack at one bet level until a win and then upping the bet by 1 unit on the next attack.

I am on an American wheel so I split the wheel up into 2-13 number sectors and 1 12 number sector (dozen...I guess the first two are bakers dozens on an American wheel)

Be careful citing win rates...a bunch of W's all look great...and a W is certainly preferable to a L.  But...

A W on the first spin of the attack wins (let's say I am on my 13 number sector) is +23, a win on the second spin is +11...but a Win on the third spin is -1.  And these numbers are doubled or trebled on subsequent attacks following a loss.

I did a super quickie test from some live numbers on an American wheel yesterday.  It went WWWLLW...like I said super quickie...I will test further as this is statistically insignificant in the scheme of things but the point I am making is regarding the wins and recovery ability.

Win - 2nd spin       +11
Win - 1st spin        +23     +34overall
Win - 1st spin        +23     +57overall
Loss                      -39     +18 overall
Loss                      -78      -60 overall
Win - 3rd spin        -3        -63 overall

A win is not necessarily a win and some wins are better than other wins...obviously.  But the WWWLLW string doesn't accurately illustrate the effects on bankroll.

4 Wins in 6 decisions... but a late win following a loss... or in this case 2 consecutive losses leave you in a real dilemma regarding recovery (4 of 6 is a 66.7% win rate)

I would pay attention to Warrior's comments...keep testing to be sure before you put real money on this.  There may be some tweaks or other rules that need applied in order to help drawdowns or recovery.  This is essentially grouping of wheel segments or clusters into larger groups. 

An approach that may be worth looking at is to look at a "dozen" that has slept for a significant period of time and then play it for a few spins after it awakes.  Using wheel sectors instead of the felt would make this more plausible theoretically than the same strategy in traditional felt based dozens or column play.

I will test further...those are just early comments off the top of my head with 15 minutes involved in testing and typing.

Maybe a positive progression on wins???  If a method has a tendency to really string together long win streaks positive progressions could also be an answer and then drop back after x amount of wins depending on the testing results....test, test, test.   It will settle itself out in enough time and enough analyzed spins.

[ignatus]

Thanks for your ideas RouletteKEY !   

[ignatus]

Maybe I am testing this progression wrong.

Win - 2nd spin       +11
Win - 1st spin        +23     +34overall
Win - 1st spin        +23     +57overall
Loss                      -39     +18 overall
Loss                      -78      -60 overall
Win - 3rd spin        -3        -63 overall

This is because two wins in a row is required before reset progression


I think the positive progression idea was a very good idea

[rouletteKEY]

This is how I tested it.

I qualified the trigger 1,2...now play 3rd dozen.  Or 3,2...now play the 1st dozen

So I play one unit each on 12 or 13 numbers as the wheel breaks out.

I play 1 unit each for the first three spins...if I win...I end the attack...if I lose three spins in a row I wait for a new trigger and now play 2 units on each number...if that loses three consecutive spins I then place 3 units on each number after a third trigger qualifies itself and play for up to three spins or until a win.

So if I win on the first spin of the first attack I win 35 units and lose 11 or 12, depending on whether I am betting on the 1st dozen which in my case has 13 numbers or the 3rd dozen which has 12 numbers in my American wheel configuration. 

So let's assume I am betting on the first dozen that has 13 numbers...I win 35...but lose the other 12, giving me a net win of +23.  If I lose the first bet of the attack I am down 13...then assuming I win the second bet placed on the first attack I win 35 because I am still at a one unit bet but have lost the remaining 12 on this bet plus the 12 from the previous lost bet...net result of a 2nd spin win on the first attack now becomes...+11.      And then of course if the first attack goes to the third spin I have already lost 26 units...suppose I win 35...but still lose the other 12 placed bets on that spin.  So I am now +23 for the spin...but because I was down 26 before placing the bet...this win actually has my bank down by -3 net.  Assuming I am betting on the other dozen that actually has a dozen numbers in it the numbers are slightly different by 1 unit per spin.

I don't understand where there is a re-set after a second win I guess.  What am I re-setting from and what am I re-setting to?

Am I missing something...all the W's you post in your string...are they all 1st spin Wins?  Because otherwise you would have to re-illustrate your W-L string.  As an example a 3rd spin win on a third attack after two complete losing attacks would look like this LLL - LLL - LLW.  Instead of what I am presuming you are illustrating as LLW (the cumulative result of each attack without regard to actual profitability)

It makes a HUGE difference how this works out.  All first spin wins...great...but any second and particularly third spin wins...especially after a losing attack...creates some money management issues that need to be considered.

Like I said...maybe I am missing some vitally important aspect here.

[ignatus]

Yes, And the part you've missed: Two sessions in a row must be won before reset. OR one win within the first two spins (one session is 3 spins)  That's the way this progression works! (That's the way I play it)

You reset back to 1 unit after WW (two sessions) is won.

[TwoCatSam]

ignatus

Let me understand what you mean by a "win rate". 

I get 1,2 and I bet for 3.  I bet 3 times.  Are you saying that you will win that three-bet trial X% of the time?

Sam

[ignatus]

ignatus

Let me understand what you mean by a "win rate". 

I get 1,2 and I bet for 3.  I bet 3 times.  Are you saying that you will win that three-bet trial X% of the time?

Sam

Yes, that's right

One session is 3 spins. A win within 3 spins is a win.

Winrate I calculate number of sessions won

But this can be played differently: with positive progression as mentioned by RouletteKEY (very good idea since winrate is high)

Another idea is cut progression to 2 steps (another idea by RouletteKEY)


I'd be happy if you post your results playing this!

[TwoCatSam]

Well, it's as good or better than any of the junk I post.

I'll give it a whirl.....

Sam

[rolf-harris]

123, 321....not 231 or 213 then?

[ignatus]

123, 321....not 231 or 213 then?

Yes, that should be logical, have I missed something here?? 

Perhaps you're right, (you should be right?) the wheel is round and the 231 is the same pattern/movement. aswell the 213-move

I'll study these movements and report back!

Thanks!

[Spin4Fun]

100 new spin test.. that would be 100% hit rate, max 3 steps before hit.
Would have made 220 units.

[ignatus]

100 new spin test.. that would be 100% hit rate, max 3 steps before hit.
Would have made 220 units.

Very good!