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The Van Keelen Test

Started by ego, Mar 30, 04:50 PM 2013

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ego

Mar 30, 04:50 PM 2013
The Van Keelen Test

Every serious system player is interested in an objective method, giving him information whether his system has a certain value and is going to produce a net profit in the long run.

Beside the "Statistical Ecart" and other test options, with which we will deal in one of the next issues of Basics, "the Van Keelen Test" is a simple measuring procedure, with which the player can determine the chances of success or failure of his system.

The Van Keelen Test, which was developed decades ago, will give the player information about the value of a system, and requires the player to check his system over a certain number of placed bets before he begins the practical play.
This again has the advantage that possible losses only develop on paper and not in reality at the table!

The Van Keelen Test sets into relationship the net gain of a system to the number of placed bets, whereby  the minimum number of the placed bets checked for all chances must amount to at least 1000.

The units wagered must be of equal value; no progression is to be used! It is very important to point out that we speak here of placed bets, not spins!
To check a system over 1000 spins, has no meaning!

This testing method has the inestimable advantage that a system must be checked at least over 1000 placed bets, and on this basis a prediction about the value of the checked system is possible.

With 100000 *checked bets, even a negative result can be still another feature of a good system. Because if a system indicates a real superiority over ZERO, the possibility exists, that with an adapted progression continuous gains can be obtained.

Even-Money-Bets (Black/Red/Even/Odd/High/Low):
A system indicates a genuine superiority:
1. if after 1000 placed bets a gain of  more than 100 units was obtained!
2. if after 8000 placed bets a gain of more than 60 units was obtained!
3. if after 100000 placed bets a result  better than - 1000 was obtained*
Denial of gamblers fallacy is usually seen in people who has Roulette as last option for a way to wealth, debt covering and a independent lifestyle.  Next step is pretty ugly-
AP - It's not that it can't be done, but rather people don't really have a clue as to the level of fanaticism and outright obsession that it takes to be successful, let alone get to the level where you can take money out of the casinos on a regular basis. Out of 1,000 people that earnestly try, maybe only one will make it.

ego

#1
Mar 30, 04:51 PM 2013
Well i test by hand and now will see if you can use flat betting or regression based upon trending for domination.
So i set towards 1000 to indicate something and if i obtain 100 you can PM me and i will give you the method.
Denial of gamblers fallacy is usually seen in people who has Roulette as last option for a way to wealth, debt covering and a independent lifestyle.  Next step is pretty ugly-
AP - It's not that it can't be done, but rather people don't really have a clue as to the level of fanaticism and outright obsession that it takes to be successful, let alone get to the level where you can take money out of the casinos on a regular basis. Out of 1,000 people that earnestly try, maybe only one will make it.

ego

#2
Mar 30, 04:52 PM 2013
2013 03 30 TRNG

WWLWWWWWWWWL
WWWL
WL
WL
L
WWWWLWWWWWL
L
WWWL
WWL
WWL
WWL
L
LLWLWLWWWWWWWL
L
L
WWL
L
WWLWWWWWWWL

+50
-24
= +26
74 placed bets
- - -

2012 03 29 TRNG

L
L
WWWL
WLWWWWL
WWLWWLWL
WWWWWWWWWL
WWLWLWWL
LWL
L
L
WWL
WWL
WWWWWWWL
L
LWL
WLWL
LWWLWWWWWWWWWWL
WLWWWWWL
WWLL
WWWWWWWWL

+70
-32
= +38
102 placed bets

- - -

2013 03 28 TRNG

L
L
WL
WWWWL
WLL
WL
LLL
WWWWWWWL
LWWLWL
WWWL
WWWWWWWWWLL
WWWWWWWWWWLWWLLL
WLWL
LWLWL
WWWL
LL
LLWL
WWWWWL

+54
-33
= +21
87 placed bets

- - -

As you can see, almost 300 placed bets and up 85 units, i start to think that trending for domination would be something to take a closer look into ...
-
This is a raw idea that we can fine tune in the end, if we reach 100 units with 1000 placed bets.
Then i might argue that domination compensate ...
Denial of gamblers fallacy is usually seen in people who has Roulette as last option for a way to wealth, debt covering and a independent lifestyle.  Next step is pretty ugly-
AP - It's not that it can't be done, but rather people don't really have a clue as to the level of fanaticism and outright obsession that it takes to be successful, let alone get to the level where you can take money out of the casinos on a regular basis. Out of 1,000 people that earnestly try, maybe only one will make it.

ego

#3
Mar 30, 05:04 PM 2013
Denial of gamblers fallacy is usually seen in people who has Roulette as last option for a way to wealth, debt covering and a independent lifestyle.  Next step is pretty ugly-
AP - It's not that it can't be done, but rather people don't really have a clue as to the level of fanaticism and outright obsession that it takes to be successful, let alone get to the level where you can take money out of the casinos on a regular basis. Out of 1,000 people that earnestly try, maybe only one will make it.

ego

#4
Mar 30, 05:22 PM 2013
- - -

2013 03 27

WLWWWWL
WWWWL
WL
L
LWWLWWLWWWWWWWLWWWWWL
L
WWWWWL
WWWWLLWWWWWWWLWWL
WWWWL
L
LWWWWWWWWWL
L
WWL
L
L
WWWL
WWWWL

+65
-25
+40
90 placed bets

Denial of gamblers fallacy is usually seen in people who has Roulette as last option for a way to wealth, debt covering and a independent lifestyle.  Next step is pretty ugly-
AP - It's not that it can't be done, but rather people don't really have a clue as to the level of fanaticism and outright obsession that it takes to be successful, let alone get to the level where you can take money out of the casinos on a regular basis. Out of 1,000 people that earnestly try, maybe only one will make it.

Big EZ

#5
Mar 30, 05:25 PM 2013
Looks good so far...


Is there any type of test to test progressions? Maybe over 2k placed bets with a progression or does nothing like that exist?



Quitting while your ahead is not the same as quitting

Blood Angel

#6
Mar 30, 05:58 PM 2013
Quote from: Big EZ on Mar 30, 05:25 PM 2013
Looks good so far...


Is there any type of test to test progressions? Maybe over 2k placed bets with a progression or does nothing like that exist?

or for single numbers....?

amk

#7
Mar 30, 06:57 PM 2013
This is out there, like Sputnik : )


If I remember correctly, you passed the Van Keelen test before, am I correct Ego?


Will take a while to find the data, but I am pretty sure you did : )

ego

#8
Mar 30, 06:59 PM 2013
-
Yes i pass it before, but this time i did something wrong.
-
I notice after taking a closer look that i have been curve fitting the results with out knowing it, so the results are not valid and back to the drawing table again ...
-
Cheers
Denial of gamblers fallacy is usually seen in people who has Roulette as last option for a way to wealth, debt covering and a independent lifestyle.  Next step is pretty ugly-
AP - It's not that it can't be done, but rather people don't really have a clue as to the level of fanaticism and outright obsession that it takes to be successful, let alone get to the level where you can take money out of the casinos on a regular basis. Out of 1,000 people that earnestly try, maybe only one will make it.

amk

#9
Mar 30, 07:09 PM 2013
Why reinvent the wheel Ego ; )


With which method did you already pass the Van Keelen?


Could you please guide us to the thread?







Turner

#10
Mar 31, 04:57 PM 2013
Quote from: Blood Angel on Mar 30, 05:58 PM 2013

or for single numbers....?
Im guessing its 36 x these placed bets

1. if after 1000 placed bets a gain of  more than 100 units was obtained!
2. if after 8000 placed bets a gain of more than 60 units was obtained!
3. if after 100000 placed bets a result  better than - 1000 was obtained*




Blood Angel

#11
Mar 31, 06:07 PM 2013
Quote from: Turner on Mar 31, 04:57 PM 2013
I'm guessing its 36 x these placed bets

1. if after 1000 placed bets a gain of  more than 100 units was obtained!
2. if after 8000 placed bets a gain of more than 60 units was obtained!
3. if after 100000 placed bets a result  better than - 1000 was obtained*
hi Turner,
that's kind of what I was thinking, so 36000 placed bets... for a profit of 3600...?

Turner

#12
Mar 31, 06:31 PM 2013
Quote from: Blood Angel on Mar 31, 06:07 PM 2013
hi Turner,
that's kind of what I was thinking, so 36000 placed bets... for a profit of 3600...?
That was my guess mate....it gets depressing after that

Blood Angel

#13
Mar 31, 07:20 PM 2013
Quote from: Turner on Mar 31, 06:31 PM 2013
That was my guess mate....it gets depressing after that
Lol yeah,thats why I didnt go any further  :-\

Big EZ

#14
May 14, 03:21 PM 2013
I found this other info as well....




Six number bets (lines)[/color]After 1 000 bets - the gain is more than 100 units;After 8 000 bets - the gain is more than 200 units;After 100 000 bets - the gain is more than 600 units.[/color]Twelve number bets (dozens, columns)[/color]After 1 000 bets - the gain is more than 50 units;After 8 000 bets - the gain is more than 50 units;After 100 000 bets - the gain is more than 2000 units.
[/color]
Quitting while your ahead is not the same as quitting
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