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ati

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Trying a different approach
Jun 20, 03:02 PM 2014
I think I finally accept the fact, that I cannot win constantly, so I'm looking for a different approach.
I only played and tested on a no-zero wheel, to have the best chance of winning, but I cannot do better than breaking even long term. I did realize that non of the betselections makes much sense, because in the end, it was always 50/50 before every new spin.
I tested EC's, dozens, streets, ds's, straight up bets in the past 5-6 months, 90% of the time with real money, and now I can really see for myself that nothing works long term. I mean I still somewhat believe ion repeaters, but I was unable to find a money management that would work. Maybe later I will share what, and how I tested.

I read a discussion on the betselection forum, where people say that you can only win if you know when to quit. This is true, but it's impossible to know whether you gonna win or lose in the next 50 spins. So this new approach I'm talking about, should be a system that wins short term more than it loses.
For example let's say we start with 50 units and our goal is to win 10 units, then quit, and start over. Many times we would lose the 50, and for every loss we need to win 6 times 10 units to be profitable.
Do you think we could find a system that would win most of the time at the beginning of play?
I attached a couple graphs where I simulated a play on the two hottest dozens starting with a 50 units bankroll, and after every loss, I added 1 unit to each dozen. As you can see it wins 10 units many times before it loses all.






This is just one very simple example, it can be done in a million different ways. We could also start with 100 units and have a 20 or 30 units win goal, etc.
I am trying to find the ideal starting roll, win goal, and a system to win this way. It's not easy, and takes  a lot of time since the possible ways to play is limitless.
If you have an idea that you think would work, don't hesitate to share. Unfortunately I can only simulate simple systems, because I still can't use RX. And to see if something works, we need at least a hundred  or more simulated play.


ausguy

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Re: Trying a different approach
Jun 20, 04:19 PM 2014
Have you tested/played with stop losses (SL's) in your game ? As always, to win 1st you have to stop losing. Mostly the graph charts show an upward win trend after any loss dip. Perhaps testing SL's in the L2 to L4 zone may show positive results ? As usual SL's need 2 back to back wins to succeed.

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ati

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Re: Trying a different approach
Jun 20, 05:16 PM 2014
I did something similar to your stop loss idea, but I can't do free spins with this simulator. I turned on a rule, where the software will not raise the bet until a win happens, but the results were almost the same.  I'm very early with these tests and I don't have much free time while the world cup is going, but I'm planning to try as many variations as I can later on.

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Proofreaders2000

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Re: Trying a different approach
Jun 20, 05:29 PM 2014
A good goal I would think is one unit per session.

Now a unit could be $1,$10 or even $100 (depending on your bankroll)

(Mr J recommends 600 units per 1 betting unit)

Here's an idea for you.  With a hot dozen
how many times does it hit in say six spins?

(If you say you know with good confidence it will hit twice in six
spins we could try for one hit (after it shows) with a small progression: 1,1,1,2,2,2 (stop).

ausguy

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Re: Trying a different approach
Jun 20, 09:30 PM 2014
ati - Not raising the bet until a win sure ain't the same as a nil money bet. It's the long(ish) strings of losses that kills most betting.

As your simulator won't accommodate stop loss free spins then perhaps you could print out your graph charts & then manually edit the stop losses in ?

I assume the simulator also lists the bet results so surely you could do something extra with all the info. ?

Alternatives that may be of benefit ?  Spreadsheet or programmed betting like RX, provided they can accommodate SL bets ? Sure, it may cost a little money but maybe money well spent ? Certainly a program with wide ranging changeable parameters would be of value ?

I'm no expert in the program area but others here are & the IT section on CC  may also be able to help you ?  Also have you tested actual spins using your play method ?

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ati

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Re: Trying a different approach
Jun 21, 05:12 AM 2014
A good goal I would think is one unit per session.

Now a unit could be $1,$10 or even $100 (depending on your bankroll)

(Mr J recommends 600 units per 1 betting unit)

Here's an idea for you.  With a hot dozen
how many times does it hit in say six spins?

(If you say you know with good confidence it will hit twice in six
spins we could try for one hit (after it shows) with a small progression: 1,1,1,2,2,2 (stop).

600 units makes no sense if you have a 1 unit win goal. How much of that 600 would you risk to win 1?
On a single dozen with 1,1,1,2,2,2 progression the minimum needed is 9 unit. I ran a couple test and it didn't work.
The starting roll was 9 unit, the win goal was 1 unit. As soon as the 1 unit profit has been reached, or the 9 have been lost, a new game started with 9 units. Out of a 100 games the 1 unit goal has been reached 85 times. That's very poor, it would result in a 50 units loss total.
Then I did the same with 2 units win goal. 78 wins out of 100. Total loss=42 units.
I gave up the 3 units win goal test after 50 games. Only 35 wins out of 50. Total loss=30 units.

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ati

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Re: Trying a different approach
Jun 21, 05:23 AM 2014
ati - Not raising the bet until a win sure ain't the same as a nil money bet. It's the long(ish) strings of losses that kills most betting.

As your simulator won't accommodate stop loss free spins then perhaps you could print out your graph charts & then manually edit the stop losses in ?

I assume the simulator also lists the bet results so surely you could do something extra with all the info. ?

Alternatives that may be of benefit ?  Spreadsheet or programmed betting like RX, provided they can accommodate SL bets ? Sure, it may cost a little money but maybe money well spent ? Certainly a program with wide ranging changeable parameters would be of value ?

I'm no expert in the program area but others here are & the IT section on CC  may also be able to help you ?  Also have you tested actual spins using your play method ?
Sure i could calculate the results manually, if I had the patience. :) I really should learn to use RX, but it looks so difficult. Programming has never been my forte, one of the main reasons I dropped out of uni.

ausguy

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Re: Trying a different approach
Jun 21, 06:25 AM 2014
ati - some prerequisites to improve a players chances are a high level of patience (resolve to sometimes tough things out, testing & playing), adequate + bankroll & a viable progression. Lack of effort usually results in lack of reward.

As you've already stated your current play MO mostly ends up in negative territory, so why continue with it in its current mode ? 
9 units to win 1 unit at 6 bet lines/levels won't & hasn't worked. Surely an indication of unrealistic expectatations ?
I think that a different/longer progression would be worth testing, together with a much larger BR.

Proof saying what Mr J recommends = 600 units to win 1 unit has merit. Below I'm suggesting a BR of less than 1/2 of 300 units or x2 of that for 2 BR's (your choice).

How about a 10 level Fibonacci progression to win 1 unit (up 1 on a loss & back 2 on a win) ? This would set out as follows: L1. 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 65, 99 & L10, for a 251 unit BR. An option could be stop loss bets after any L4 & 5 unit loss (-11 running total) = BR 251 units.

RX isn't the only option open to you. In the IT section there's references to programs from savvy people that only seem to require inputs ? Excel for example. Without change ati nothing will change, unless you want to shelve your play/plans & do other things ?

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ADulay

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Re: Trying a different approach
Jun 21, 09:19 AM 2014
ati - some prerequisites to improve a players chances are a high level of patience (resolve to sometimes tough things out, testing & playing), adequate + bankroll & a viable progression. Lack of effort usually results in lack of reward.

Bingo!  We have a winner.

Print that out and paste it to your computer monitor.  Read it every day.

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