20/100 FLAW

[ego]

Some opinions:

Math Professor
Posted 03/20/06 

Someone quoted John Patrick as saying I don't win much but I don't lose much either.
Now he was critical of this statement but there is a reason for it.

We who have lived with gambling all our lives understand the relationship between what we win and what we lose.

The Equation is simple enough .
Magnitude of profit is usually a function of magnitude of wagering.

One of the most common failures in gambling is progressive betting.
Several small wins are satisfying but  when the next small win does not happen and it turns into a progression which often recovers the day but sometimes results in ruination.

Giving up on a progression is hard because losing can mean the erosion of several days work.

The gambling flaw is inherent in this.
Christopher Pawlicki highlighted this fact.
The equation for winning small returns often calls for a progression .
The progression  ultimately however snatches away the prevous wins.

For example 20 + 20 +20 +20 +20 has been achieved with 50 + 100 + 80 + 120 + 100  The final destructive act is a 100  that does not recover .
Even without a progression 100 absorbs the 5  sets of 20 + wins.

I call this the 20/100 flaw.

20 is therefore 20% of 100.
A good result by any standards.

In order to control the erosion of previous wins the ratio of win to wager
needs to be as close to parity as possible.

Say 80 + 80 +80 +80 + 80  with 100 + 100 + 100 + 100 + 100

If the 100 goes then we still have nearly 4 days work intact.
We can walk away and get them again another day.
Not many gamblers can achieve 80%.

This is the flaw.

There must be plenty of gamblers here who understand this but any replies should be better than 3 and out .
The math does not work.

JOHN PATRICK
Posted 03/20/06

excellent point but go back to your opening paragraph and it is not clear ............You said      "he was critical of this statement ................"

I THINK you meant he was CRITIZIED  for this statement ...............

and you're right..................there were a couple of people who laughed at it as meaning I was content with small wins..........adn that ALL I wanted to do was lose a little each day.........

I am glad you picked up on what I really meant by saying that (naturally) I would like to win more, but I am more interested in holding losses down.........

and THAT point that you made about people who do NOT gamble every day , not realizing this is the total and complete point I try to embellish in their minds every day............

Someone else (I think it was Rick K., a few days ago), also touched on that fact .................how really hard it is to win..........and that you HAVE to somehow, someway, condition yourself to win small to ensure you don't lose big ..........to be able to stay alive in this journey called gambling..........

You showed the SERIES you use ..........

What is the LOSS LIMIT and WIN GOAL you advise...........(percentage wise)

Math Professor
Posted 03/20/06

" What is the LOSS LIMIT and WIN GOAL you advise...........(percentage wise)"

Well that is my question to everyone ! 
What I am doing here is highlighting the problem we have with the percentage we go for.

The greater the difference between the amount we wager and the amount we accept ,as a win ,the more of a problem we have.
Lets say (as you have stated) that 5% is a professional aspiration. So we wager 100 for 5 .

That might seem reasonable but look at the result say over 5 days.
+ 5 +5 +5 +5 +5 = 25 . that's great we are winning 5 each day and we haven't lost. Now on day six we wager 100 and bust out !

We are now - 75 !   

We were going up and down with our 100.
But then we hit a bad spell and it eroded to 0.

The problem here is that we often have to go down to nearly zero
to make the continuous flow of 5's.



if our 5 day win was +60 +30 +20 + 120 +40  and this can be achieved with 100 and the 100 busts after 5 days we have .
won +170.  (270 - 100) .

I often work on 100 or 70 from 200. That is I am prepared to lose 200 for these great returns and if I can manufacture 70 od chips every day with a wager of 200 chips then I am going to survive if the cumulative value exceeds 100 after bust out.

What I would like to know from yourself is what your wager is in relation
to what you accept for that session and how do you overcome this flaw.

This is where Pawlicki is making the case that the crash will come and steal away your cumulative gains. Its the problem that haunts all gamblers.
Gamblers ruin.

[ego]

-

I think this discussion is very important - it is the engine room.

Cheers

[GLC]

Thanks for the topic Ego.

It is a consideration all must finally come to realize once they start playing for real money.  How much does my win target need to be to justify my stop loss.  If the win target is too small for what I'm willing to risk, many days or weeks worth of work can be wiped out in one day.  If my stop loss is too small for my win target, I will rarely reach my win target and will always be behind the eight ball.

That is why we need to pick a system that we know and understand perfectly.  Testing it enough to know what can be expected in the length of sessions we normally play.  I suggest that somewhere around 5 days of hitting your win target for one hit of your stop loss.  This is just an suggestion to consider.  Some advocate a 10% win verses your stop loss.  Nathan Detroit is in this camp if memory serves me correctly. 

I think that if you go over 20% win target, you're going to be behind the eight ball quite a bit.

Only testing and your personal bank roll will help you determine these percentages.

One of the worst things that can happen is to be winning and then have a losing session and chase the losses with a progression and actually recover your losses with the progression and walk out happy as a lark.  It puts the thought in your mind that you can recover with a progression if you get behind.  Big danger sign!

It's like a friend of mine that went to the dog tracks for the first time with me one night and couldn't lose.  He got hooked on betting the dogs, but could never quite duplicate his first experience.  After a few thousand dollars donated to the cause, he finally came to his senses and realized it was much harder than his first outing demonstrated.  My advice to be cautious fell on deaf ears. 

He now does quite well playing some of the progressions found on this forum but they are backed with good handicapping to give him a better than even chance to pick the winners than most of the betters who don't handicap as well as he does.  He thinks we're crazy to bet on roulette when dog and horse racing are such easy money.  He may be right!

Cheers to all,

GLC

[MrJ]

I did a thread on this awhile back......dont remember where or when but the title was something like >> flat betting vs. using a progression, still a 20% win goal?

I love the what ifs and the DEEP thinking and the thinking outside the box type of discussions. Its one of FEW ways to learn this game, imo.

Ken

[ego]

Does some one have any exampel of a working set up?
I am not thinking about bet selections.

And why do we have loss limit?

Lets say i have 100 Euro for one session.
Win target is 20 Euro.
And loss limit 50 Euro.

Then there is a conflict between having 100 Euro for one session, but i am only allow to use 50 Euro.
Then my session has 50 Euro to play with and 20% win target of 100 Euro is not the same with 50 where is almost 40% win target.

Confusing.

[Turner]

It is confusing but I dont play like that
I buy casino time...like I buy cinema tickets or time at the Gym.
I plan to be in the casino 2 hours...like the gym...like the cinema.
I take £30 and 2 hours will (thats will) cost me £30.
I usually come out with 40 to £100
I have come out with £150 and come out with nothing on the odd occasion.
I never come out the gym or the cinema with more than I went in with

[nottophammer]

Lets say i have 100 Euro for one session.
Win target is 20 Euro.
And loss limit 50 Euro.

Then there is a conflict between having 100 Euro for one session, but i am only allow to use 50 Euro.
Then my session has 50 Euro to play with and 20% win target of 100 Euro is not the same with 50 where is almost 40% win target.

Confusing.

I like it Ego.
what about adding your months winnings up, find out how many games were played to find out your avg winnings per game. Do this for 12 months and see if your avg per month is the same,or how near to the same.
With your avg game play winnings known,is this better to play with.

A player in the betting shop asked could you win £2.00 playing e/c. I asked why, he said each shop has 4 machines, £8.00 winnings he said, now the 4 local towns have a total of 10 betting shops, 10*4 = 40 *£2.00 = £80.00. could you do it,would beat laying bricks for me.

bit off track

[ego]

The best money management i have ever read is from Brett Morton.

[ego]

This is the engine room and theory of not losing to much.
I think John Parick once say that he does not win hudge amounts of money and he also not losing hudge amount of money.

I belive in that GLC wrote.
A good playing model for the money management and finding the balance to avoid losing to much or to large amounts of money.
I am more intressting in the loses then the winnings.

[Chris555p]

If we can manage the losses, the profit will take care of itself

[ego]

I find Brett Morton's "Fund Management" being very clever.
Does not just sett a limit for stop loss with win goal - it also show when to push for jackpot (push for more).
It also has built in safety net that catch before it is to late (avoid to lose it all back).

With all the necessary componets to define a present session.
When to start when to quit when to push or be catch by a safety net before its to late.

PROGRESS UP THE LADDER - PLAY AND PUSH OR FALL INTO SAFETY NETS



Now what amount make me happy - i would say for example 50 Euro, that would feel ok or great.
So that should be my Happy-Point.

Loss-Limit should not be more then my Happy-Point so now i have the Loss-Limit of 50 Euro.
That was easy to set up does guide lines based upon this money management strategy.

50 Loss-Limit
50 Happy-Point

This is how Brett Morton does it.
But nothing prevent us to set higher loss-limit and lower Happy-Point.

Now when or if i reach Happy-Point and want to continue to next win target Gold-Top - then i can't lose it all as there is a Bottom Line Target - "safety net" - that stops me from losing it all.
I set the BTL 10 Euro as i want as much money i can get to continue for next win target and in the same time not go home with a empty wallet.

That would mean i would have 40 to fight with to reach my secound win-target.
And if i would lose it all back, then i would stop with +10 as my safety net.

50 Loss-Limit
10 Bottom-Line-Target
50 Happy-Point

Now i don't want to rush things so i aim for 70 as Gold-Top - the second win target.

50 Loss-Limit
10 Bottom-Line Target
50 Happy-Point
70 Gold-Top

Lets assume i don't stopp at Happy-Point or stopp at Gold-Top and continue for Jackpot.
Then i can only use the money between Happy-Point and Gold-Top to grind out profits (that would be 20).
Then Happy-Point is my secound safety net.

50 Loss-Limit
10 Bottom-Line-Target
50 Happy-Point
70 Gold-Top
?? Jackpot

You can adjust this strategy as you feel like.
Thump of rule is that you should have Loss-Limit around the same amount as Happy-Point.
Bottom-Line-Target you can set to minimum so you have more money to fight whit as you play for next win target - if you do.

So when you walk into the casino or at home you make up your money management plan.
What should my Happy-Point be today?

Then i might feel that i want to try to win two session out of maybe three sessions (depending on how things goes).
I might want to play thight.

So i set my loss-limit to 100 Euro.
Happy-Point 30 Euro.
Bottom-Line-Target 10 Euro.
Gold-Top 50 Euro
And Jackpot with no limit

100 LL
10 BTL
30 HP
50 GT
?? JP

Now i can not play a table where the minimum is 10 Euro for even money bets, because that would only let me buy in for 10 units.
That is cruel and hard to reach 30 with 10 units.
I ask my self what kind of staking plan should i use.
This show us the limits and that is very hard to find a method that allow us play after this MM rules.

But if i find a wheel with 5 Euro minimum, then i have a larger spreed with 20 units to reach the win-target of 30%.
Make things more easy, but still it is a tight game.

There is no room for 12 steps progressions, all that is left is humble staking plans or positive progression to pull of the MM rules above.
The money management setting the rules for what kind of staking plans you are allow to use or can use.

Cheers

[GLC]

This works great with his playing style.  It takes a little thought to apply to other systems, but probably well worth the effort.

Thanks for posting it for everyone to see.

GLC

[ego]

This works great with his playing style.  It takes a little thought to apply to other systems, but probably well worth the effort.

Thanks for posting it for everyone to see.

GLC

Thanks George ...
Lets do a experiment...

1) Staking plan 122
That is three attempts and a total of 5 units.
The first two bets result with a win and the last bet accept a small loss.

2) Regression Up & Pull
If a win you lower your bet, if a secound win you push for more.
1
0.5
1
1
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0 ...

If the last bet wins using the 122 staking you skip Regression Up & Pull and start over.

Now to the money management.
Lets say the minimum is 10 Euro for the even money bets.

50 Euro Loss-Limit
10 Euro Bottom-Line-Target
40 Euro Happy-Point
60 Euro Gold-Top
?? Euro Jackpot

Now i have a complete playing model with rules to follow.
Let say i reach 40 win target, then i have 30 to push for more and can only staking 12 to reach 60.
From 60 to Jackpot i can only staking 11.

The only thing left is the bet selection and this is my point i was trying to make above.
If every system developer would start from this end of the playing model, then would see how hard it is to find a working bet selection.
So i need to win two session out of three to hovering around zero point, that is not easy done with a three attempt staking plan.

[ego]

I can not find a working bet selection.
I wanted to set the win target at 20 ,,, but then i can not push for more and the money management rules fail.

So if we make things reverse and start with bankroll management and money management rules, then all system fail.
Because the staking plan get its own limits and there is no working bet selection.

Cheers