Intelligent Target Betting.

[mogwai]

Well I have read part of that interesting blog, and tested target betting on roulette spins sometime ago.

Some bets got so big that you would need a few thousand Euros of bankroll just to play with 0,01 as base unit. And even like this you could hit the table limits...

My Best Regards

[thelaw]

I can't remember if I posted anything on target betting on this forum or not.  In case some of you don't know what target betting is, it's betting 1 unit on each spin until you have a win and then you bet the total of all the units you are down up to that point plus 1 unit. 


What this means is that anytime you win twice in a row, you are fully recovered and have 1 unit to add to profits.  All you have to do is win 2 times in a row before you run out of money or reach the table limit.  It can't always be done, although one person has a blog that he uses to publish how he has been winning thousands of dollars playing this system.  Granted he does have to bet upwards of $25,000 every now and then.


I have thought about his system for a while and I think I can better it a little.  Here's how.
We bet 1 unit until we lose.  After a loss, we stop betting for real but we continue to play virtually until we have a win.  Then we make a real bet.


This is the same thing as he does only we don't lose all those units during losing streaks that we have to bet after a win.


Here's how he does it.


Bet         W/L     Total
1             L           -1
1             L           -2
1             L           -3
1             W         -2
3             L           -5
1             L           -6
1             L           -7
1             L           -8
1             W          -7
8             L           -15
1             W         -14
15           W          +1


As you can see, he eventually had to bet 15 units to recover all his losses.


Here's how it would look with my tweak.


Bet         W/L     Total
1             L           -1
0             L           -1
0             L           -1
0             W          -1
2             L            -3
0             L            -3
0             L            -3
0             L            -3
0             W           -3
4             L            -7
0             W           -7
8             W           +1

As you can see, we only had to bet 8 instead of 15 to reach +1 the same amount of profit.
This will keep your bets much lower.


This is all well and good, but let's use the same idea and change things completely.


I recommend that we play this using the D'Alembert bet method, +1 on a loss and -1 on a win.  I think this will give us a much better chance of winning and will keep our bet sizes much smaller than the original target betting.


I have been testing this a little and it's working like gang busters!

Here's an example

My System                                   


Bet         W/L     Total
1             L           -1
0             L           -1
0             L           -1
0             W          -1
2             L            -3
0             L            -3
0             L            -3
0             L            -3
0             W           -3
3             L            -6
0             W           -6
4             W           -2
3             L            -5
0             L            -5
0             L            -5
0             L            -5
0             W           -5
4             W           -1
3             L            -4
0             L            -4
0             L            -4
0             W           -4
4             W            0
1             W           +1


Now I will show the above spins using the regular D'Alembert bet method




Bet         W/L     Total
1             L           -1
2             L           -3
3             L           -6
4             W          -2
3             L            -5
4             L            -9
5             L            -14
6             L            -20
7             W           -13
6             L            -19
7             W           -12
6             W           -6
5             L            -11
6             L            -17
7             L            -24
8             L            -32
9             W           -23
8             W           -15
7             L            -22
8             L            -30
9             L            -39
10           W          -29
9             W          -20
8             W          -12


So we see that the same spins result in a loss of 12 units with a high bet size of 10 units and a draw down of 39 units.


My system using the same spins results in a win of 1 unit with a high bet size of 4 units and a draw down of only 6 units.


Can anybody see any value in this approach or am I way out there with the Iceman?


GLC

Hey GLC,

Excellent version of the original "Target Betting" system!

A couple of questions, closely related :

1) What do you think his original bankroll was for the Target Betting system (can't seem to find it on the blog, other than the 1-5000 betting spread)?

2) What would your bankroll suggestion be for your version?

Thanks!

[GLC]

Hey GLC,

Excellent version of the original "Target Betting" system!

A couple of questions, closely related :

1) What do you think his original bankroll was for the Target Betting system (can't seem to find it on the blog, other than the 1-5000 betting spread)?  I don't know what his bankroll should be.  If I remember correctly, he had to make a $25,000 bet on one of his draw downs.  Whatever it is it's too rich for my blood.

2) What would your bankroll suggestion be for your version?I don't have a bank roll suggestion.  It can be anything you like.  I'd say 100 units should be adequate.  Here's what you have to decide.  The larger your stop loss, the more small wins you'll have and the fewer times you'll reach your stop loss.  But when you do it will cost you a lot of hours of play and maybe even put you in the hole.  You're hoping to get ahead more than your stop loss before you hit it the first time.  With a small stop loss, you'll hit it more often, but when you do it won't cost you so many units.  The same thing, you're hoping to get far enough ahead before hitting your stop loss too many times and getting to deep in the hole.  Pick your poison.

Thanks!

[thelaw]

Thanks GLC!

I just ran a quick few hundred spins from my "worst case scenario" results and I had to drop down to 150 units before recovering.

For this system to work, stop-loss would probably not be enough; we would need a W/L chart less prone to chops, or use hit-and-run.

I do like the overall idea though; I'll keep looking.

[thelaw]

Well, after running a simplified version of the Target Betting system, it beat the 1500 spin "horror" sequence on EC (I have attached it for reference).

To simplify it, I just bet LTD (loss to date) after each new win, and kept all other bets to a minimum.

There is only one issue; this bet generally works on the idea that you bet you LTD (loss to date) after each new win to bring you to a new high. The chop kills this really quickly, hence no holy grail.

So the question is: how to get rid of a chop more than 8 long? 8 is the longest stretch that I had on the "horror" sequence, which needed about $2000 bank to survive.

Killer Sequence:

w
w
l
w
l
w
l
w
l
w
l
w
l
w
l
w
l     
w 
l     8
w
l     9 - dead

The Target Betting blog states that you would need a betting spread of 1-5000 units; far more than what I saw, but I was using a more simplified version of the system, which is all over the place. The good news about his system, is that you would never get thrown out of the Casino as the swings would be way too much-making you look like a textbook gambler.

I mention all of this, because to date, this is the best system that I have seen. It does in fact beat the game with the worst spins that i've seen, and it's super easy to play.

GLC might be able to figure this out, as he originally proposed a version of this system. I played his version to about -300 units before I quit against the attached sequence, as the grind would imply a 30hr session for possibly a few units profit (worst case scenario).

Thanks to GLC for the idea!

[RouletteGhost]

Scientists are beginning to realize we create our own realities

Now if only i could tap into that for 5 seconds one time a day at a roulette wheel