The stock market / roulette testing analogy

[TurboGenius]

Here's a big problem when it comes to testing (and playing) roulette
methods/strategies/systems..
I'll just grab 3M from the NYSE to show what this means.
Let's assume this is your "chart" after playing your system for an entire year...

[TurboGenius]

It's far from impressive - as a matter of fact you're barely back to $0.00 and no one would look at this and say "WOW - great system you have there !!"
Of course not. As a matter of fact, after a year of doing this with no profit to speak of - you would have abandoned this way of playing for something "better".

Now, let's assume that someone else keeps playing your system for 5 years...

[TurboGenius]

Well !!!!!! That's another story isn't it - Impressive !
The truth is, it's the same chart from the same company only extended longer.

Testing something that gives terrible or "no profit" results doesn't mean that it's not good.
Someone else who played it longer than you did (since you gave up on it) is well into profit.

Granted, it's apples and oranges - the stock market isn't "random", but to some level - neither is roulette.
But for those of us who play and test systems, the analogy fits.

[RouletteGhost]

Thats why my 401k is in the s and p 500

It dips but longterm it does what u have shown

[GLC]

It's far from impressive - as a matter of fact you're barely back to $0.00 and no one would look at this and say "WOW - great system you have there !!"
Of course not. As a matter of fact, after a year of doing this with no profit to speak of - you would have abandoned this way of playing for something "better".

Now, let's assume that someone else keeps playing your system for 5 years...

The part of this that bugs me is that even 5 years is only a small piece of the graph if you think you have a system that can't lose and you intend to use it for a source of income long term. 

I'm reminded of our friend IBOBA, Flatino, Vile, Sesame, etc... (May he rest in peace) who told me he had a system with which he won well over $200,000 over a period of years.  Then, it started to lose and he gave most of it back before abandoning the system.  It had performed so well that he just couldn't believe it wouldn't turn around and start giving back instead of taking more.

I guess it's a good lesson emphasizing the often stated rules to never play with money you can't afford to lose and always have a stop loss!