POSITIVE EXPECTATION ON ROULETTE CAN BE PROVED MATHEMATICALLY!

[nottophammer]

i bet 7 as its 1st to hit, if it hits i'd bet its odd neighbour, if hit, then bet the other neighbour 

Code Select Expand

1 7 bet #7
2 21
3 29
4 35
5 13
6 24
7 3
8 9
9 23
10 22
11 19
12 11
13 31
14 9
15 7 win bet#7&29 plus 22
16 12
17 23
18 20
19 30
20 11
21 16
22 29 win bet 7,29,28 plus 22
23 11
24 32
25 2
26 3
27 17
28 27
29 23
30 22
31 11
32 35
33 17
34 23 lose
35 1
36 32
37 7
38 26
39 17
40 23
41 32
42 4
43 20
44 36
45 1
46 25
47 0
48 36
49 22
50 6
51 17
52 2
53 12
54 13
55 23
56 12
57 29
58 15
59 35
60 16

Okay

[Blue_Angel]

i bet 7 as its 1st to hit, if it hits i'd bet its odd neighbour, if hit, then bet the other neighbour 

Code Select Expand

1 7 bet #7
2 21
3 29
4 35
5 13
6 24
7 3
8 9
9 23
10 22
11 19
12 11
13 31
14 9
15 7 win bet#7&29 plus 22
16 12
17 23
18 20
19 30
20 11
21 16
22 29 win bet 7,29,28 plus 22
23 11
24 32
25 2
26 3
27 17
28 27
29 23
30 22
31 11
32 35
33 17
34 23 lose
35 1
36 32
37 7
38 26
39 17
40 23
41 32
42 4
43 20
44 36
45 1
46 25
47 0
48 36
49 22
50 6
51 17
52 2
53 12
54 13
55 23
56 12
57 29
58 15
59 35
60 16

Okay

No, you got it wrong.

Imagine that you have 1 list of 37 numbers, now place by the first list a second one with 37 numbers again.
Each time a number comes mark it on the first list, the same number represents something different on the second list, therefore mark another number there.
How many times do you think it takes in order to have a match between the 2 lists??
If for 1 list of 37 elements the repeat takes x number of spins, with 2 lists takes x / 2 and with 3 lists x / 3.

Just a few hints for your perusal.

[The General]

Another system that relies on an up as you lose progreesion.  How original.

[Blue_Angel]

Another system that relies on an up as you lose progreesion.  How original.

Thanks for your kind words, that's very original coming from you!

[Blue_Angel]

I like your signature, it's true that if we were certain about his existence, then we would be also certain about the existence of the opposite...

[Blue_Angel]

Isnt that the only thing here that would make a difference? Improve the accuracy of your bet selection, and you arent saying what that is.

There are a lot of assumptions here.

Probability theory uses the same assumptions to conclude that if you flat bet 37 times you are going to lose 1 unit.
If this does make sense, then what I'm proving here makes sense too.
And no, it doesn't has to do with prediction accuracy, it has to do with what "law of thirds" suggests as average expectation.
If you have a method which predicts with accuracy more than average, then with my way you would win even more.
I've showed you how you could turn a negative expectation into a positive with just average results.
Variance is a coin with 2 sides, could make things worse than average, also could make things better than average, that's why in long term doesn't affect average probability.

[Turner]

Sorry...and no personal attack intended but I can only go on what you typed

What you are saying sounds like waffle. I think you need to pitch your blarney to a lesser educated audience

[Blue_Angel]

Ok it seems that you have misunderstood and you are bit confused, that's why I'm going to give a few examples.

If we apply "law of third" from numbers to other bet sections it would still be valid.
It's not about 24 unique to 13 sleepers/repeaters, it's about dividing in three parts, therefore all multiples of three are divisions emerging out from the same theory.

First example, let's pick a line, probability theory says that on average will show 6 times out of 36, "law of thirds" says that the same line will hit 4 times out of 36 on average.

Why "law of thirds" suggests 4 instead of 6 hits within the same timeframe?
A line contains 6 numbers, the 2/3 of 6 is 4, in other words 4 of those 6 numbers are going to show up within 37 spins.
How can we use this knowledge?
Remember the  D'Alembert progression?
Let's see what happens if we are using it on any line we pick;

L  L   L    L   L    L     1st set of 6: 6 losses cost 1+2+3+4+5+6 = -21 units
W NB NB NB NB NB   2nd set of 6: 1 win out of 6 results 6 - 1 = +5 units
L  L   L   L    L   W     3rd set of 6: 1 win out of 6 results 36 - 21 = +15 units
L  L   W NB NB NB     4th set of 6: 1 win out of 6 results 18 - 6 = +12 units
L  L   L   W  NB NB     5th set of 6: 1 win out of 6 results 24 - 10 = +14 units
L  L   L   L    L   L       6th set of 6: 6 losses cost 1+2+3+4+5+6 = -21 units

Let's accumulate wins and losses: (5+15+12+14) - (2 x 21) = 46 - 42 = +4 net
That  happened with 4 wins out of 36 results, I could give you many more sets of 6 results with overall positive outcome.

When wins happen on first bet the net is 5, when happen on second bet the net is 9, when happen on third bet the net is 12, when happen on fourth bet the net is 14, when happen on fifth bet the net is 15, when happen on sixth bet the net is 15.
A lost mini cycle of 6 results always costs 21 units.
As long as there are  4 wins or more out of 36 results we would always have an overall profit.

Do you think only lines can accommodate such positive expectation?
How about the corners, the streets and the splits??

A corner should show once within 9 results regarding probability theory, according "law of thirds" should appear 8 times within 108 results.
4 out of 36 results is quite optimistic for probability theory, but since for cannot result in whole number after dividing it by 3, we take 3 cycles (3 x 36) of 108 results and from these 12 hit regarding probability we deduct 1/3, thus the remaining will be 8.
Let's have an example;

L L L L   W NB NB NB NB         1st set of 9: 1 win out of 9 results 45 - 15 = +30 units
L L L L   L   L    L   L    L           2nd set of 9: 9 losses cost 1+2+3+4+5+6+7+8+9 = -45 units
L L L W NB NB NB NB NB         3rd set of 9: 1 win out of 9 results 36 - 10 = +26 units
L L L L  L    L   L    L    L           4th set of 9: 9 losses cost 1+2+3+4+5+6+7+8+9 = -45 units
W NB NB NB NB NB NB NB NB  5th set of 9: 1 win out of 9 results 9 - 1 = +8 units
L  L    L   L    L   L    L   L W      6th set of 9: 1 win out of 9 results 81 - 45 = +36 units
L  L    L   L    L   L    L   L  L      7th set of 9: 9 losses cost 1+2+3+4+5+6+7+8+9 = -45 units
L  W NB NB NB NB NB NB NB   8th set of 9: 1 win out of 9 results 18 - 3 = +15 units
L  L   L    L   L   L    L   W  NB   9th set of 9: 1 win out of 9 results 72 - 36 = +36 units
L  L   L    L   L   L    L   L   L      10th set of 9: 9 losses cost 1+2+3+4+5+6+7+8+9 = -45 units
L  L   W NB NB NB NB NB NB    11th set of 9: 1 win out of 9 results 27 - 6 = +21 units
L  L   L   L   L   W NB NB NB      12th set of 9: 1 win out of 9 results 54 - 21 = +33 units

Let's accumulate wins and losses: (30+26+8+36+15+36+21+33) - (4 x 45) = 205 - 180 = +25 net
That  happened with 8 wins out of 108 results, I could give you many more sets of 9 results with overall positive outcome.

When wins happen on first bet the net is 8, when happen on second bet the net is 15, when happen on third bet the net is 21, when happen on fourth bet the net is 26, when happen on fifth bet the net is 30, when happen on sixth bet the net is 33, when happen on seventh bet the net is 35, when happen on eight bet the net is 36, when happen on nineth bet the net is 36.

A lost mini cycle of 9 results always costs 45 units.
As long as there are  8 wins or more out of 108 results we would always have an overall profit.

You could figure out what happens with the average expectation of the streets and splits...!:-)

[Turner]

First example, let's pick a line, probability theory says that on average will show 6 times out of 36, "law of thirds" says that the same line will hit 4 times out of 36 on average.

How so? It says nothing.....just shows after the event
Law of the 3rd says in 6 spins....on average...4 lines will show and 2 won't.
But LOT dilutes with grouped bets like splits and lines etc
It works best with straight numbers and worsens as the no. Gets smaller. Lines are too small at 6
Lott isn't a roulette thing. It's normal distribution of numbers

It's a hindsight thing. Can't be used to predict future spins

Ok it seems that you have misunderstood and you are bit confused

Don't think so

[Blue_Angel]

Law of the 3rd says in 6 spins....on average...4 lines will show and 2 won't.

Whether you say 4 out of 6 lines within 6 spins or 1 line 4 times within 36 spins it's the same thing.

If you deny that's the same it's like you are claiming that if you bet 36 times  in 36 different days is different than betting 36 times continuously.

Simple as that and that's a fact.

[Turner]

You look at it how you like, and Im not here to stop you.

Just remember your audience arnt newbies.

[Blue_Angel]

You look at it how you like, and Im not here to stop you.

Just remember your audience arnt newbies.

I'm well aware of it, nor do I have any intention of deception.

Why would I wanted such a thing? To take your money? 

Any casino has more than all of your combined accounts, that's my target.

If even 1 person could be benefited in one way or the other from what I'm writing here, that person wouldn't degrade in the slightest my own well being but it could give me some sense of fulfilment by knowing that I've helped someone who I don't know but I could be in his/her shoes.

Just try look beyond the obvious and beyond yourselves because there are many more than what eyes can see...!

[Turner]

Just try look beyond the obvious and beyond yourselves because there are many more than what eyes can see...!

Thanks, but I dont need cognitive therapy lol

[RouletteGhost]

Thanks, but I dont need cognitive therapy lol

But turner, the thread title is in all caps.

[The General]

Re: POSITIVE EXPECTATION ON ROULETTE CAN BE PROVED MATHEMATICALLY!

Ok, soooooo where's the proof?  Show me the math.