An interesting thread for AP/VDW followers.

[wiggy]

Thought I would share this interesting thread from Vic's Forum posted several years ago from 'Mike'.

link:://betselection.cc/even-chance-8/how-to-get-an-edge-flat-betting-(in-theory)/msg22774/#msg22774

It more or less shows that if you can keep your max losing run down to three, then you have a player advantage of 1.194%.

It's also interesting in a sense because as Mike says, you don't need to use a Martingale straight out of the gate. You can take your 3 losses and then start a progression. I am just sharing it because I think it's useful info and most VDW players seem to agree that the variance is reduced. So maybe something can be constructed around this info.

cheers

[ozon]

I do not know if I fully understand the concepts of Mike.
If he claims that eliminating all series longer than 3 gives you an edge.
Eliminating the series is waiting for a virtual win, after 3 losing bets.
In this way we will eliminate all series 4+.
According to his claims using and using nozero roulette, we should have an edge.
But whether it is in fact, I do not know

[wiggy]

Taking what was written at face value seems pretty straightforward. You need a bet selection that can have a max of three losses to show a long term profit flatbetting. Anymore regular losses than that and you are going to need a progression and a prayer book! 

AP seems to offer lower variance coming from the people who are actually playing it / researching it. I can't really say I am a big fan of virtual losses even in a random environment.The non random VDW can throw up some really long W sequences and it would be a shame to waste them.

[ozon]

To avoid a series longer than 3, must wait for virtual win after 2 losing bets.
Even if this would give you an advantage of no zero roulette about 1.5%, you can expect drawdowns over -200 untits from the top.
It is very hard to make any progression to this.
But sure enough in conjunction with Vdw this can reduce th e variance.

[ozon]

My friend made simulations of 10 k spins.
He played one color, after 2 loses wait for virtual win.
  Highest drawdown was -63 units, after 9k spins highest profit +31 units.
It's not bad, but it's a short test.
I played it in betvoyager for real money, I did not even 800 spin and already had two disconections.
This casino is totaly not playable if you want to play a lot of spins.

[ozon]

A few days ago I made simulations.
I only played red, after 2 loss wait for virtual win.
To my surprise after 500k spins and was about 500 units on plus.
Biggest high was after 150k spins 670 units
Max drawdawn from top was 350 units.
In the first 150k the trend was increasing, after that trend was neutral.

Observe, even if there is a slight edge, we can not use any real progression.
  I do not know what progression is able to withstand the drawdown of 350 units.