Does Positive Progression produce an edge?

[ozon]

I wanted to know what your opinion is?

I have not tested it myself because I have trouble contacting my friend who is programming rx.


The question to you whether such a thing can work.
  We play with the trend, bet is double dozen, we always play the last two dozen, if the third turn we change for the second, we always play with the trend of hot dozen.

But it's about positive progression.
10-10
15-15
22-22
33-33
Stop and reset
This is a progression from the bookmaker, it is a 4 step parlay for the 1.50 odds.
Next comes the question whether this type of wagering can generate an edge on the nozero roulette?

[cht]

Progression cannot generate an edge, it's just the varying of the betsize.

Edge comes from accuracy of the prediction of future event.

[falkor2k15]

Progression cannot generate an edge, it's just the varying of the betsize.

Edge comes from accuracy of the prediction of future event.

But something else is required: break the unfair payout odds problem of Roulette. Predicting alone is not enough.

[Bayes]

If your prediction is good enough, you've solved the unfair payout problem.

[falkor2k15]

If your prediction is good enough, you've solved the unfair payout problem.

I still don't think it's as simple as that. We can predict many things about future events in Roulette - but we lack the tools or means to express those predictions with suitable bets that will break through the profit barrier. Therefore, the only way to tap into those predictions is to make multiple predictions at the same time that are covered by a single bet thereby giving a cheap investment, or we can "make space" by stitching multiple spins as though they were single spins giving several betting slots for each self-defined spin/trial.

This is called "capture more wins or spins".

[Thanatos]

Been playing a bit of 2 dozen paroli style and its not something id really recommend to anyone as paroli really requires the patience of a machine as its so slow that makes it "not fun" to play. Must admit when ive played this id either watched a movie at the same time on my other screen or played some other roulette strategy at the same time.

So if not impossible it no doubt hard and as always with paroli its all about finding the right time to stop.

Now aiming for 4 wins in a row is probably a bit too dangerous even its still a common thing to happen and it has a fairly alluring 5x payback. A solution that could be used is to part the bet into 2 step ladder instead .. aka win 2 bets 2x10, 2x 15 then wait for a virtual loss then bet the next 2 bets 2x22, 2x33 (or 2x23, 2x34). Definately also a way to recover on a real loss as well (or dig yourself even deeper lol).

Aiming for 3 wins in a row is probably the best (2x10, 2x15, 2x23) for a roughly 3,5x return. The 2 wins on its own is probably too grindy for any human being with the 2,25x return.

Of cause the real (and eternal) question is probably what strategy to play. Playing the "two hottest dozen" or "two other than the last" or one of the grassroots "against dozen 123" or "against dozen 312" should technically all work as the painfully slow paroli should win ahead eventually.

[ozon]

I have patience and time.
I was curious whether such a short positive progression could generate a minimal advantage on the wheel without zero.
Deviations can be really big, but is there any advantage?

[Bayes]

Does a positive progression produce an edge? Not by itself no, but it can often seem that way because a progression  (positive or negative) increases the variance, meaning that the "swings" both up and down will be greater than if you weren't using one. Variance is a two-edged sword; if you happen to be on the right side of it your profits can be greatly magnified, but if you're on the wrong side, the losses will be similarly much greater. Obviously a progression doesn't affect the number of wins, which is why it can't create an edge. In order to produce an edge you need to focus on bet selection.

A progression can lead you to believe that your system is better than it actually is, because often it extends its "lifespan" before tanking. If you don't have terrible luck, and have the required balls and bankroll, its lifespan might even be longer than yours. 

[ozon]

Thanks Bayes
I understand .
My reasoning was wrong, I thought that if we use nozero roulette and betselection 2 hottest dozens playing flat bet, at some point we will be  on zero, maybe from the beginning maybe after several thousand spins,
My reasoning was that if we put a 5 step positive progresion, we can generate a delicate advantage in thousands of spins.