It seems to work well enough for the casinos, and it's a good job they don't agree with you, otherwise they wouldn't exist and you'd be screwed.
Why would I be screwed? Actually the house sets limits on games. That is there real advantage, otherwise a simple Marty could finish them. Even precog is useless against table limits.
But I guess it's easier to condemn something you don't understand, rather than actually learn it.
You are right that I don't have a PhD in probability. But I am referring to epistemology when i say probability is a pseudo reality. The classical view of probability has no basis in reality so all you are left with is statistics which again is just an attempt at understaning induction by way of math.
If you take the empiricism view of reality then statistics is your God. You base your reality on models. Good luck with that.
The reality is the materialist worldview is wrong. There is a part of our minds or consciousness that is non-local. Don't believe me? Do the research.