About gaps and numbers

[Bigbroben]

Unsurprisingly enough, after a few 5000 spins analysis, the average of all gaps between reappearance of numbers is 37 spins.  This comes as expected.

The surprise came from another statistic, which is also very relevant.  The median of all those gaps is 27( Somewhere between 26 and 27)!  That is: 50% of all gaps are below 27 and the other half above 27.
Most gaps are after 1 spin: 2,70% (1/37).
Then:  spins2.  2.63 (1/37*36/37).
And so on.

How can we use this knowledge?  And comes also the question: when does a nr goes ''hot'' or ''cold''?  Is it when It repeats before 27 spins, or 37?

Matter to think over when insomniac...

[The General]

In the random game... you can't because the winning payout will always be short of what the odds dicatate as fair.

However, the live wheel is something entirely different!  Focus on exploiting inefficiencies in the wheel, rather than the random game.

[Steve]

In the random game... you can't because the winning payout will always be short of what the odds dicatate as fair.

However, the live wheel is something entirely different!  Focus on exploiting inefficiencies in the wheel, rather than the random game.

This is the starting point for approaches that work.

As unpopular as the advice General and myself give, everyone would be better off if it was followed. You arent being asked to follow blindly. Start by doing suggested testing so you understand reasons for things being said.

[maestro]

i like your tests...i done one ...stupid for sure

[Steve]

Yes Maestro, just 500 or so spins is a stupid test. It's your test, not mine.

[maestro]

Yes Maestro, just 500 or so spins is a stupid test. It's your test, not mine.

unfortunately i am not intellectually gifted as some members but doing my best so you know

[Bigbroben]

Let's pretend one would play betting on numbers.
Numbers with hits above normal are good running little horses on which it is wise to bet on, if looking at previous results.
Let's say a leading number eventually stalls.  When would the player stop betting on it?  When is it recognized as not-so-hot-anymore?  Is it when it is caught back by the others?  Is there a ''time window'' that's relevant to declare a number cold?

And now! the horse race metaphore, with a tweak!: there is no physical end to the race, there only is a chrono.  They run for 5 minutes.
Let's say 2 gamblers (some say investors!) were allowed to decide every second on which horse(s) to bet.  The ''winner'' would be the one whose bets covered the most distance.

The first player bets all these 300 seconds on one single horse, the nr.1, which happens to be the one that was the furthest down the road after 5 minutes.  This player always bets on this horse and this horse is always the one that runs the most distance in these 5 minutes, by, let's say, oh..., 2.7%.

The second bets alternatively on horses nr.2, 3, 4, or 5, based on achieved speed in the last x seconds.  Actual decisions are based on past performance, sure, but player 2 manages to beat player , for the sum of the distance covered by his bets is higher than the distance covered by the best horse.
Same questions can be asked here: how does player 2 decide on which horse to bet on?  How far behind does he look?  How quick does he change horse when the last seconds are ''deceiving''?

Back to numbers.  When must a number be dropped?  What's the safest span, or the equilibrium between not too early (''what if it's not dead yet?'') or too late (''...arrrgh I just lost back what I had won with it'')?

The median value of gaps ( did I say 27?  It is 26) might be a starting point for further investigations.  i dunno yet.  Nevertheless, I am very interested in checking how this value can be used.

The following graph is a little thought for Lucky7red: I know he loves them.

[cht]

In the random game... you can't because the winning payout will always be short of what the odds dicatate as fair.

I will respond this once.

Lets examine specfically streak that we observe say in baccarat, my game.

People tend to believe about the rareness of patterns when they occur as a non-random event. Fact is they are rare events just the same as any other pattern. This perception and judgement is based on their short sample experience.

PPP is as random as PPB or PBB or PBP.

When we examine further time as a factor on the streak series there are 2 aspects to look at, namely

1. how often this pattern occur,

2. how long the waiting time before this pattern occur.

Say a pattern of fixed length, PPP of 3 length -

1. How often do they occur within a shoe of say 70 hands, and

2. How long is the waiting time for the first occurrence of this fixed length PPP pattern.

There are research papers that show the waiting time for 1st occurrence is the longest for series streak as compared to other jumbled patterns - our understanding of random tend to guide our believe that they are the same for random distribution.

So if you conduct proper test to show that your particular pattern appear consistently more often than mean, and the waiting time for 1st occurrence is shorter than mean then this pattern can be exploited over the fixed payout.

This is just a simple example to look deeper into series patterns in random distribution. That is to determine the alpha of your series pattern - the same with roulette game.

[cht]

Bigbroben, apologise that I respond to that oft-repeated statement here rather than on other more contentious threads.

[Bigbroben]

Thanks cht,

what are the research papers you refered to?  Can u share?

++++++++++++++++

I thought nr9 was becoming expensive, but it just keeps hitting within its 27spin window... steady, no rush, just more often than not.

+1u on hit nr.
Drop nr if no hit in 27 spins.

Not sure if this is a good way of playing...

[Bigbroben]

Bigbroben, apologise that I respond to that oft-repeated statement here rather than on other more contentious threads.

Sure!

[Bigbroben]

i like your tests...i done one ...stupid for sure

Maestro,  you did not drop nrs in your test?

I guess it's ok if you reset at new high, long run I think not.

After how many spins would you call a nr a sleeper?

[maestro]

reason i done it was not for using system or play i just wanted to see what are the skips between hits...say number with 2 chips hits and is now with 3 chips how long till next hit on numbers with 2 chips or would it be hit on 3 chips...thats all 

[Turner]

unfortunately i am not intellectually gifted as some members but doing my best so you know

Self deprication is a wonderful tool but you arnt fooling me

[nottophammer]