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luckyfella

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Who on earth are you to demand I conduct a million trails?
Just so that you can accept the reality that precognition is real?

Again let me get this right....
You want me to spend my time and energy doing a million trails so that you can benefit of the knowledge that precognition works and it is a viable way to win?

That is pure arrogance.

I have a method and I know precognition is real. All I can do is point the way. Either you accept the reality precognition is true or live in denial.

It is your choice.
How I(one insignificant person) view precognition is definitely irrelevant

The readers properly understand how you conduct your test is important

The readers properly understand your claims is important

That bolded part is good

Just a word of advice

Don't get upset when faceless strangers on the net don't believe you
Don't go on threads try defend your claims
Don't try change the world
You can't, especially in the manner that you have done
Wall of text will never do it

Who knows, someday you may be officially accredited for your work as pioneer in the application of precognition in gambling games
The very best success to you
IGNORE LIST - STEVE, CALEB

Left the forum - 2 Dec 2018

luckyfella

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Joe

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I found this software : http://www.magicintuition.com/magic-roulette-intuition.html

Highly overpriced though. I'm tempted to write something similar for myself and practice for a while, just to see if there's anything to this precog malarkey.

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Joe

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If a win follows a win more than 33% of the time, you can parlay.  1 unit will win 9.  But, if it's true that you never have more than 4 losses in a row, a simple negative progression will work

This got me intrigued; how many consecutive losses do you need to eliminate in order to make a profit flat betting, assuming everything else stays the same? So I wrote a simulation to find out. This is betting on a dozens (the particular bet selection is irrelevant). It only counts losses if the number in a row is 4 or less, otherwise it's a straightforward simulation of betting on a dozen.

Code: [Select]
const N = 10000000;
var
  i,tstaked,bank : longint;
  spin,conloss   : byte;
begin
  randomize;
  tstaked := 0;  // running total of stakes
  bank := 0;
  conloss := 0;  // track consecutive losses
  for i := 1 to N do begin
    spin := random(37);
    if spin in [13..24] then begin  // win
      conloss := 0;
      inc(bank, 2);    // add 2 units to bank
      inc(tstaked);
    end else begin  // loss
      inc(conloss);
      if conloss <= 4 then begin  // no more than 4 consecutive losses
        dec(bank);    // remove 1 unit from bank
        inc(tstaked);
      end;
    end;
  end;
  // calculate yield
  writeln('Yield = ', 100 * bank/tstaked:4:2, '%');
end.

The output was Yield = 13.20%

I ran it several times (10m spins per run) and the edge is always a little over 13%.
So if you really don't ever see more than 4 losses in a row, no need for a negative progression, just flat bet or use a positive progression based on a percentage of your bank.
All this is purely hypothetical of course. ;-)

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Joe

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A few more results...

Suppose your precog skills aren't so good that you will lose at most 4 in a row? I increased the LIAR (losses in a row) parameter in the program to find out when your edge evaporates. So what's the edge if you lose at  most 5, 6,.. etc in a row?

5 LIAR => edge ~ 7.5%
6 LIAR => edge ~ 4.0%
7 LIAR => edge ~ 1.7%

Any more than 7 losses in a row isn't worth it; you need to get better at guessing.  ;D

Kairomancer

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Even money bets with a 80% hit rate are even better to reduce the variance, so you can increase the amount of your bets.
Also most casinos have la partage rules, which further increase your edge by 1.35%.


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Joe

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Even money bets with a 80% hit rate are even better to reduce the variance, so you can increase the amount of your bets.
Also most casinos have la partage rules, which further increase your edge by 1.35%.

I modified the program to find the results when betting the even chances. This is assuming la partage so a HE of 1.35% :

No more than 4 LIAR => edge ~ 2.1%
No more than 3 LIAR => edge ~ 5.8%

Kairomancer

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At 80% hit rate he claimed, he should rarely be concerned about a miss.

The problem is rather being in a proper state for wagering long enough.

That is why I almost exclusively play single numbers with a total 27 step stop loss negative progression. I only play max 3 spins at a time.
 Even when I occasionally fail to get the correct number, I still only lose 12 units more compared to playing flat bet.



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plolp

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It's simple, if he never has more than 4 losses ..
From 2 losses he plays the maximum.

Kairomancer

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At 80% hit rate he claimed, he should rarely be concerned about a miss.

The problem is rather being in a proper state for wagering long enough.

That is why I almost exclusively play single numbers with a total 27 step stop loss negative progression. I only play max 3 spins at a time.
 Even when I occasionally fail to get the correct number, I still only lose 12 units more compared to playing flat bet.

I also found 11 step progressions work remarkably well for playing single numbers.
It only cost me around 12.6 units instead of 11 units playing flat.

As you can imagine I play online with 5000 local currency as a base bet unit. The smallest stake is 5. I correct the bet amount for each losing bet to win 35 units.

precogmiles

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This got me intrigued; how many consecutive losses do you need to eliminate in order to make a profit flat betting, assuming everything else stays the same? So I wrote a simulation to find out. This is betting on a dozens (the particular bet selection is irrelevant). It only counts losses if the number in a row is 4 or less, otherwise it's a straightforward simulation of betting on a dozen.

Code: [Select]
const N = 10000000;
var
  i,tstaked,bank : longint;
  spin,conloss   : byte;
begin
  randomize;
  tstaked := 0;  // running total of stakes
  bank := 0;
  conloss := 0;  // track consecutive losses
  for i := 1 to N do begin
    spin := random(37);
    if spin in [13..24] then begin  // win
      conloss := 0;
      inc(bank, 2);    // add 2 units to bank
      inc(tstaked);
    end else begin  // loss
      inc(conloss);
      if conloss <= 4 then begin  // no more than 4 consecutive losses
        dec(bank);    // remove 1 unit from bank
        inc(tstaked);
      end;
    end;
  end;
  // calculate yield
  writeln('Yield = ', 100 * bank/tstaked:4:2, '%');
end.

The output was Yield = 13.20%

I ran it several times (10m spins per run) and the edge is always a little over 13%.
So if you really don't ever see more than 4 losses in a row, no need for a negative progression, just flat bet or use a positive progression based on a percentage of your bank.
All this is purely hypothetical of course. ;-)

Fascinating. So I have at least a 13% edge. Thanks for the calculations.
For proof of precognition - Check out the MPR leaderboard (http://www.rouletteplayers.org/leaderboard) - names:  pmiles, pwithp, intuition, precogmiles - all with positive winrates.

precogmiles

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It's simple, if he never has more than 4 losses ..
From 2 losses he plays the maximum.

What do you mean by From 2 losses he plays the maximum. ?
For proof of precognition - Check out the MPR leaderboard (http://www.rouletteplayers.org/leaderboard) - names:  pmiles, pwithp, intuition, precogmiles - all with positive winrates.

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plolp

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if you never have more than 4 losses in 5 turns,
After 2 losses what risk you play the maximum?

precogmiles

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I have started to test this on MPR and have had very good results so far.
pwithp is my username on MPR. as in (precognition with progression)



25000 bankroll in 500 spins and a amazing winrate of 1.314 . I've realised I need to refocus on every attempt and combine my precog with a progression to get the best results.

Currently betting 25 units per spin as my base.
Then I am using a Fibonacci sequence negative progression.

I'll be trying other methods and will keep you guys updated.
For proof of precognition - Check out the MPR leaderboard (http://www.rouletteplayers.org/leaderboard) - names:  pmiles, pwithp, intuition, precogmiles - all with positive winrates.

 

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