Most appropriate money management for my system?

[BellagioOwner]

I've been missing a long time from the forum. So, first of all, HI to all the old members that I knew and WELCOME to any new members here 

I've had small success in the past with some systems but I made a pause from roulette since it was taking much of my time and I was focused more on e-commerce stuff, marketing, trying to dip a bit into investing, trading etc.

Recently I've found a way that gives me a positive return on sports betting. It's not a huge sample but I trust it more than the 10,000 test spins on roulette because I don't test against randomness that will eventually eat up my bankroll combined with the house edge. It is based on past games and statistics providing you with value bets when odds of winning are higher than the odds the bookie offers (roulette ball has no memory but football teams, stats and humans DO have!)

So anyway, with this "system" after 453 games I'm +11 units. Small sample but yet again, it's doesn't test random events so it's safe enough I believe. I had the same positive outcome throughout the 400+ games, not ups and lows.

My questions is, what appropriate money management could I use to increase my winnings? Flat betting is a success but I guess since it's a positive return I could bump it up with some progression or some other way...

The system has odds averaging around 1.40 (you bet 1 unit , if you win you get 1,40 back aka +0.40 units profit)
MOST of the odds are lower than 1.40 (1.15, 1.20, 1.25 etc) and FEWER odds are higher at around 2.20, 2.50, 3.50 etc and that's why averaging 1.40

I've tried a positive progression since I get streaks of many wins in a row, to cover any losses I had. It works well since I increased from $400 starting bankroll to $2000+ (Excel calculations) but I had some spikes in the graphs and deep betting like in most progressions. Deep like having to bet $500 on a $2000 bankroll, or sometimes even leaving me with $0 on bankroll and lots of money in stake.  Ngeative progression like martingale I believe is pointless since I get fewer losses and many wins with low odds won't make it work.

Anything you believe would work better and smoothier? Any thoughts are welcomed!

Hava a nice day everyone! 

[sugtips]

Hi BellagioOwner, how are you sir?

Combine 2-3 games of low odds, odds will become 2+, then use any even money negative progression

Just an idea

[BellagioOwner]

Hi Sugtips! Nice to meet you! I may give it a try. Looks like this way I could open up many betting strategies and MM that are based on EC bets, so could be worth the try. I was also thinking maybe trying some Fibonacci sequence but I'll start with combining them in 2-3 together

[Firefox]

Neither positive  progressions where you bet with the money you have won, nor negative where you bet with your own capital, work to give you a long term profit at Roulette. There is no method of money management which will be successful, including flat bets or raised bets of any size.

The only way to win at Roulette is by increasing prediction accuracy.

Similar to sports betting, if you can increase prediction accuracy by inside information or knowledge that other punters and the bookmaker do not have, then you will win.

Otherwise,  if you just make random bets on the same information as other punters you will lose as the casino/bookie offer unfair odds.

[Roulettebeater]

Firefox
I agree with you!
But what are the methods that can increase accuracy in the game of roulette? For now let’s ignore computer or visual ballistics !

Suppose you have to place bet before ball launch, what systems are you going to use to increase ur accuracy ?

[Firefox]

If you ignore computers or VB you are left with biased wheels which are rare nowadays or dealers signature type methods which have very short optimal periods of play.

[Firefox]

I see now original question was more about sports betting with an edge.

If you are sure you have an edge then it depends what you want your win/loss cycles to be. Negative progression gives you a steady income with the occasional big loss. Positive progression requires a smaller bankroll gives you a steady loss with the occasional spectacular win which outweighs your losses.

I think you are better off flat betting but increasing the size as your bank roll increases. Check out Kelly betting or if you don't want to bother with that, just bet 1/100 or 1/50 of your stack.

But progressions do not alter the amount  of your long term win or loss, they just alter the win/loss patterns.

[BellagioOwner]

Hi Firefox! Nice to mee you and the other people commenting here that I may not know. Yes, I agree with you about Advantage Play on Roulette and having a positive edge against the house edge as pretty much no system can beat the mathematical disadvantage you always have on every spin. You can see on many of my older posts I say that a lot too, and I criticize most systems, gambler's fallacy etc. Same goes for sports betting since there is again a house edge built in it. If they believe that a team has 50% chance to win they'll give you 1.87 1.90 odd etc.

I was indeed referring as you saw on my original post about value bets where the expected win ratio is higher than the odd the bookie offers. there are situations that such a thing exists but it's somewhat rare. Anyway, not the issue for now

I'll try the stitching games together to build odds around 2 to try various systems and MM I have on my mind. I DO too like flat betting but it will be a slow process on this one, so since I know flatbet is slow but positive, I was thinking to experiment with other better MM, more lucrative at the price of bit riskier (taking into consideration that it's a positive edge in the long run)

What is the Kelly betting? Having to do with Kelly criterion I see on google?  I've tried approaching D'Alembert but I'll give it a try with Labouchere combining the bets together for odds around 2

[sugtips]

I see now original question was more about sports betting with an edge

Negative progression gives you a steady income with the occasional big loss

Who are you to decide this my friend.

Millions of people around the world making money in sports betting and in stock/forex market. That's a fact.

What is the Kelly betting?

I am surprised, you don't know basics. I suggest first learn each and every word/term related to sports betting. Check glossary of sports betting. Google.

Regards
Sugtips

[BellagioOwner]

Sugtips, not sure what was your point to make on Firefox but that's between the 2 of you I guess

As far for the Kelly criterion, yeah I have no problem saying I didn't know it I googled it and read it before your answer because I do found it interesting. We all learn new stuff. As I understand it though it mainly will work on deciding the amount for flat bets, no that much on any system or progression. But nonetheless interesting and I'll take it into account

[Firefox]

Who are you to decide this my friend.

Millions of people around the world making money in sports betting and in stock/forex market. That's a fact.

I didn't decide negative progression gives steady gains and then a big loss. It's a mathematical fact.

And I'm talking about a negative expectation game.

Of course it's possible to win overall on Forex or sports. Those are positive expectation games in the right circumstances.

[Firefox]

Sugtips, not sure what was your point to make on Firefox but that's between the 2 of you I guess

As far for the Kelly criterion, yeah I have no problem saying I didn't know it I googled it and read it before your answer because I do found it interesting. We all learn new stuff. As I understand it though it mainly will work on deciding the amount for flat bets, no that much on any system or progression. But nonetheless interesting and I'll take it into account

Kelly betting combines flat betting with a mild positive progression. It is the best way forward in a positive expectation game. But if you don't like it try Contra D'alambert. It is a similar idea ... increase bets when you win, decrease when you lose. Positive progressions are good if you have an advantage, and Kelly is the optimum strategy.

[The General]

Who are you to decide this my friend.

Millions of people around the world making money in sports betting and in stock/forex market. That's a fact.



Regards
Sugtips

Nobody is winning in the long run by running up as you lose progressions without first having an edge over the casino.

Up as you lose progressions aka chasing your losses is a fools folly.

[Madi]

General,

Are you and firefox is the same person? His appreance and your disappearance raise that question. Or were u busy with junk wheel?

[Madi]

If you ignore computers or VB you are left with biased wheels which are rare nowadays or dealers signature type methods which have very short optimal periods of play.

General , learn something and accept his writing. Your junk wheel got its place, in “Museum”