Facts about Non-Random in 2019 and the cost of winning

[falkor2k15]

I've got an idea on how we might beat the break even game too... it's to do with those repeat lockouts I told you about and maybe having better control over the variance.

The other mechanism might be related to the defining element of a cycle and control over that variance.

RR
RBR
RBB

Only Red has 75% chance of being awarded the defining EC on this occasion. Black is locked out.

[Firefox]

Agreed the break even game and house edge game can be beaten without table limits. But, progressions don't change house edge (if there is one) and we do have table limits.

It goes back to the most simple cycles. Even chances and dozens. If one can show mathematically that these can be beaten on a non zero game then there is a solution.

[Firefox]

RR
RBR
RBB

Only Red has 75% chance of being awarded the defining EC on this occasion. Black is locked out.

Defining is just a word though. Yes the cycle is defined by red, but it doesn't have any relavence. The first red result is history.

Betting starts now.

We can bet R

R  NB win 1     50%
B   R   break even 25%
B   B   lose 2      25%

Overall, break even.

So cycles are a fact but they are irrelevant.

It's like saying out of a bag of balls of red and black you will only need to pick 3  to get a pair or even simpler the next ball you pick will be either red or black!

They are both undeniable facts, but from a practical betting viewpoint, useless.

[falkor2k15]

Agreed the break even game and house edge game can be beaten without table limits. But, progressions don't change house edge (if there is one) and we do have table limits.

It goes back to the most simple cycles. Even chances and dozens. If one can show mathematically that these can be beaten on a non zero game then there is a solution.

Right, so theoretically there should be two ways of beating the game if not utilizing both:
Negative progression staggered in such a way as to never reach the table limits despite not having any player edge. If not then why do we reach the table limits and would an extra 1,000 make any difference? Most likely related to variance. And it's interesting to try to ponder how a positive progression could beat the game even without any table limits or house edge.

Create player edge through better control over variance avoidance (locking out repeats or red/black during certain trials) or finding a cheap investment. The latter is an interesting one and might be possible through further work on Positions - see "Outside the Box a difference view of roulette" topic. If a dozen CL2 costs 1 unit less because 2 different position pigeons happen to be the same dozen then it should result in edge? Unless the CL2 stats are different for position pigeons that are represented by one dozen  vs. two dozens.

I agree that everything is a microcosm, which is why I mainly practice using Dozen cycles, and here Dozen Cycles + Line Cycles for testing parallel universes. And if a solution is found then it would be more practical and profitable to use numbers and other parallel streams.

[falkor2k15]

Defining is just a word though. Yes the cycle is defined by red, but it doesn't have any relavence. The first red result is history.

Betting starts now.

We can bet R

R  NB win 1     50%
B   R   break even 25%
B   B   lose 2      25%

Overall, break even.

So cycles are a fact but they are irrelevant.

It's like saying out of a bag of balls of red and black you will only need to pick 3  to get a pair or even simpler the next ball you pick will be either red or black!

They are both undeniable facts, but from a practical betting viewpoint, useless.

Yep overall it's break even, but we might be able to change that in the context of variance, and having better control over it.

Red and Black are independent outcomes.

Defined by Same vs. Defined by Different are also independent outcomes. 75% vs. 25% like 3 quads vs. 1 quad.

If Defined by Same is trailing behind Different then we would expect Different to catch up, but actually it's independent and catching up is never guaranteed because each outcome still has the same chance of being either Defined by Same or Different regardless of past history.

However, when it comes to Defined by Same it can only be red or black at a given time. Random likes to always create average stats with freedom on every outcome to surprise us with one or the other, but we can fight back by dictating when Random is allowed to give us certain outcomes.

It's the same with the repeat lockouts. If something cannot repeat then we are forcing random to increase the cycle length on that occasion when contributing to the average stats, so next time we have a choice of both CL1 or CLX we ought to go for CL1 because that was previously locked out on many occasions - as long as it's not ahead of maths expectation or the session hasn't encountered the law of large numbers - or so the theory goes.

[Firefox]

All true, but look at it like this:

The casino gives no special prize for completion of a pair (end of a cycle).

They only give rewards for betting and winning on red or black

So, when a cycle begins on red, if we play to the end of a cycle, red has an advantage that's true. But in all the ways of completing that cycle, black will win three times but red only twice.

This negates the apparent advantage  we have. Cycles are real but the apparent advantages are an illusion. And this applies to cycles with higher numbers of partitions too.

[falkor2k15]

Sure - the cycles are like a false construct - but they give us a nice stats framework that's consistent and allows us some control over it's variance (see topic "funny sequences" by Priyanka). Imagine if our Red/Black behaved like this:

RBRBRBRBRBRBRBRBRBRBRBRBRBRBRBRBR

At the end the averages are still 50/50 and the probability is still 50%, but we can take advantage of the variance. That's what happens with the defining element:

SSSSSSSSSSDDDSSSSSSSSSSSSSDDDDDD (independent)
=
RRRRRRRRRBRBBBBBBBBBBBBBRBRBRB (dependent)

[Firefox]

We can always control varience by betting on a large number of partitions though. An extreme example is red and black at the same time; we only lose to zero.

Similar 11/12 streets or 5/6 lines.  We win or lose very little, but in the end lose a little more than we win due to zero.

[falkor2k15]

Sure, but that's not the same concept as what I am trying to explain. This might make it simpler to understand:
Defined by same (red) = 50%
Defined by same (black) = 50%

Only 1 type of outcome can happen at a given time. In order to switch tides, the EC cycles have to go through a process of moving to "different" before returning to "same".

If you are currently at the start of a Red cycle:
R...

Defined by same (black) is now locked out!

Remember the other example?

LL LH H...

LL and LH CANNOT repeat on the next spin, so both are locked out. CL2 is also locked out.

This is not the same as betting 11 streets or 5 lines because the single street and the single line are never "locked out" so to speak.

[wiggy]

Why do you want to ruin things for everyone?

You have nothing better to do?

LoL…..Here's Money!

[Mako]

I see falkor has wandered out of his Doomsday Bunker again...

He left specific instructions that he wasn't to be let out until AFTER the apocalypse guys, come on.

[MoneyT101]

LoL…..Here's Money!

😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂

[falkor2k15]

I see falkor has wandered out of his Doomsday Bunker again...

He left specific instructions that he wasn't to be let out until AFTER the apocalypse guys, come on.

Doomsday is still scheduled for June 27th 2023; start learning to speak Japanese NOW for that will be your only means of escape! surviving2023.com

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[Steve]

is the population reduction because the Earth finally becomes round and people will fall off the bottom side? I'll be down under, so I'm screwed. I lived a good life though.

Falkor, anyone paying attention would know things are headed for shit. But exactly what will happen is largely speculative. Can we please not do this on a roulette forum in an unrelated thread.

[stringbeanpc]

is MLE an acronym ? maybe meaning Most Likely Event