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ego

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I find the link to the last one https://game-gurus.com/

This is the three is my favorites.
You need to make your own conclusions.

Cheers
Denial of gamblers fallacy is usually seen in people who has Roulette as last option for a way to wealth, debt covering and a independent lifestyle.  Next step is pretty ugly-
AP - It's not that it can't be done, but rather people don't really have a clue as to the level of fanaticism and outright obsession that it takes to be successful, let alone get to the level where you can take money out of the casinos on a regular basis. Out of 1,000 people that earnestly try, maybe only one will make it.

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ego

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Hello, i have been using Marketbeaters - https://www.marketbeaters.se/ - and when you download the app to your mobile phone you can see the true price list and each tipsters ROI (same as an edge).
Yes, I made money using them, been testing package solution and one single tipster.

You need to be aware that you are on stand by from morning to late night each and every day.
When your mobile phone sound you need to check the tips and sometimes you need to place a bet within a minute.
Some games are live.
You need to download the game company's apps to your mobile phone and be ready to place bets on your way to work, during lunch time, on the subway or bus, in the food store, before you go to sleep when you are on the toilet.

First, I feel it was very stressful using the ultimate package all inclusive, but you get used to it.
When I been using one tipster only I put my money on BB and Daniel who has great ROI (edge)

They have around 6000 placed bets with 107 ROI altogether.
Add them to Twitter or email and ask about details, how much you need as bankroll and what gaming companies you can expect to use.
I have been playing with 2000 Euro and 1000 Euro bankrolls at different times where you flat betting 20 or 10 Euro for each bet.

This is for the ones who want to make money without learning how to play and place bets.

Now if you want to learn how to play and learn a method to tackle sports I would recommend John Patrick.
Buy the sports betting book and sports betting service.
He sometimes offering you one-half year for free to get a feel for the whole concept.

You get two phone numbers to call to check general information and picks with explanations.
For me is a time gap so I need to make my phone calls during a specific time as he is based in another part of the world.

You can also follow free daily picks on the forum board and grasp the general mentality around he's betting principals.
At the moment the John Patricks site is down and having issues will soon be fixed.

You can pm me and I will give you his email if you are interested to use the sports betting service.
Both these options make you money and will keep you occupated each and every day.

One more thing I install a mobile phone recorder, so I call the sports betting service once and record the phone call.
Then if something is not clear or I need to listen several times to understand I can do so without paying extra money for phone calls abroad.

The last one is gaming-guru or something similar, lost the link and have to go to Twitter to find it again.
I follow their action for a period of time and the results are very good.
And the bankroll requirement is pretty low 500 Euro and they have a nice betting chart similar to Kelly staking plan where you place different values on different games depending on the likelihood of winning. This concept offering a higher return on investment then flat betting or at least a quicker way to see profits and growth into your bankroll, but swings can be more present, that is how I reflect and understand the concept.
They have a monthly fee.
The issues I had in the past and don't know if they fix it yet, I could not get the auto sms and email function to work.
But one solution is to check there site morning, lunch, dinner, evening times for new picks.
A lot of attention and daily routine and the reason why I did not use their service.

Cheers

This is a question for Firefox or anyone else who feel to comment.
I took a calculated statistical risk with a small bankroll.

Allow me to explain:

I use a Tipster with 112% ROI and his name is Daniel from Market beaters.
Now the recommendation is to bet 1% of your bankroll.
That is 10 Euro flat betting with 1000 Euro bankroll.

Now one gambler has simulated what is the worst that can happen flat betting with 100 placed bets samples 600 times.
That is 60.000 placed bets.

Theoretical the worst that can happen is to lose 100 placed bets during one session with 100 placed bets flat betting.
The actual results after 60.000 placed bets or 600 x 100 placed bets sessions was minus 34 units.

I risk 500 Euro with a base bet with 10 Euro flat betting to build a sports betting bankroll.
That is 2% of the bankroll.
I reckon that the likelihood that I will get a drawdown with minus 34 units is very small as it happens once during 60.000 placed bets.
And the average drawdown is minus eight units during 100 placed bets sessions flat betting.

I do this to quicker reach 2000 Euro that is my goal to have as conservative sports betting bankroll.
When I reach that goal I will not take the same risk.

This means I am from 500 Euro to 1000 Euro betting 10 Euro flat betting stakes.
Risk 50 units with 2% of the bankroll.

When I reach 1000 Euro I will flat betting 20 Euro to reach 1500 Euro and then maybe continue flat betting with 30 Euro until i reach 2000 Euro.
Then I will bet 1% of bankroll and increase the number of Tipsters - thinking about BB at Market beaters with 106% ROI.
I reckon one Tipster give smaller swings with a variance that also is included in this calculation.

This is what I call risk management.

Cheers
Denial of gamblers fallacy is usually seen in people who has Roulette as last option for a way to wealth, debt covering and a independent lifestyle.  Next step is pretty ugly-
AP - It's not that it can't be done, but rather people don't really have a clue as to the level of fanaticism and outright obsession that it takes to be successful, let alone get to the level where you can take money out of the casinos on a regular basis. Out of 1,000 people that earnestly try, maybe only one will make it.

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Joe

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This is a question for Firefox or anyone else who feel to comment.

I read your post and couldn't find any question. What is the question?

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Firefox

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He's presumably asking if it's a reasonable strategy.

At a return of 12%, if they are roughly even chance bets, Half Kelly  betting suggest betting a little more, about 5% of bankroll per bet. (2p-1)

At a return of 6%, Half Kelly betting suggests betting 2.5% of bankroll  per bet.

I say half Kelly because as it is a new venture, one is not totally confident of the edge, but assume we have some edge, otherwise we wouldn't be betting.

But if the chance is not even, you could be betting less than that. Impossible to know without knowing the odds offered but sports betting is often around even chances if there are two teams compering.

I think 2% of bankroll is a good shot but very conservative on the 112% ROI if that figure is true. That seems a huge figure to me and very difficult to achieve. It may be best to start with 2% anyway until more confident of the figure.

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ego

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Thanks, Firefox you fully understand my thoughts.
The ROI is based upon over 7000 placed games.

And I tell you what I did, I buy one more Tipster with 109.8 ROI and play both on separate sport betting books/sites.

Cheers
Denial of gamblers fallacy is usually seen in people who has Roulette as last option for a way to wealth, debt covering and a independent lifestyle.  Next step is pretty ugly-
AP - It's not that it can't be done, but rather people don't really have a clue as to the level of fanaticism and outright obsession that it takes to be successful, let alone get to the level where you can take money out of the casinos on a regular basis. Out of 1,000 people that earnestly try, maybe only one will make it.

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Roulettebeater

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Do you think you can achieve a solid edge in sport betting in case you always bet on the team which has the lowest quote ?
A dollar won is twice as sweet as as a dollar earned

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ego

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No, you can not win in the long term or have an edge playing 2.0 and lower.
Yesterday I won 6.00 odds with 10 Euro stake, some days I win 1.80 or 2.20 or 4.00 - there are different odds.
Always place 10 Euro flat betting, no matter odds.

I get many live games where the current situation requires me to place bets within seconds.
Today I place a 34.00 odds and just seconds after I place this live game the odds drop to 17.00 and after that to 4.00.
This was because of the changing situation in the game.
Had I been just 15 seconds later placing the bet I would have been playing 17.00 odds.
Now that particular game did not win, but I have been placing odds that high in the past winning over 100 Euro playing one single live game.

This is not the first time I use this Service.
You have to understand that being alert from 9 a clock in the morning to 11 a clock before midnight is stressful.
Do that for six straight months takes discipline

And upon that, I call John Patrick's service one hour before midnight to get my daily American sports picks.
That process takes around one hour and after that, I can go to sleep at midnight.

Their requires work to make money and dedication and discipline.
That is how my daily routine looks like besides my ordinary work.

Cheers
Denial of gamblers fallacy is usually seen in people who has Roulette as last option for a way to wealth, debt covering and a independent lifestyle.  Next step is pretty ugly-
AP - It's not that it can't be done, but rather people don't really have a clue as to the level of fanaticism and outright obsession that it takes to be successful, let alone get to the level where you can take money out of the casinos on a regular basis. Out of 1,000 people that earnestly try, maybe only one will make it.

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Firefox

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You are right, advantage play takes a lot of study and discipline. There is no easy money out there. Even if you are subscribing to good tips they may be last minute to take advantage of momentary good odds. So it is a profession.

I'm still surprised at a 12% edge by Daniel. Is suspect he may be taking on a few unusual but more risky bets to achieve that. He could get the figure but with a higher SD, so plays well to be conservative on his tips.

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Steve

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Most players don't have the right mindset for AP - not even for roulette computers, and they are as easy as it gets. Most players don't understand the concept of edge. They want and expect a system that can be instantly applied, requires no work, never loses, and makes millions. Anything less than that is no good to them.

You can do well even with a 1% edge. But there are other factors like avoiding detection, frequency of spins etc that generally make 1% not worth the time. We'd only bother with such a small edge if it was stable, and on something like an auto wheel so we could sit there for hours without any problems.

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Joe

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No, you can not win in the long term or have an edge playing 2.0 and lower.

It's not the odds which matter, but the value in relation to the odds. Do you use the betting exchanges? You can do quite well laying in soccer matches with odds at 2.0 or below (obviously, this isn't a "blanket" bet - some research is required). And the big advantage of using the exchanges versus the bookies is that you won't get your account closed if you win too much.

I'm not a fan of tipsters myself, although I recognize that there are some genuine ones around. The vast majority are worthless.

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ego

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Yes, you are right - the handicappers find value with each and every lay - that is called value-betting.

Cheers
Denial of gamblers fallacy is usually seen in people who has Roulette as last option for a way to wealth, debt covering and a independent lifestyle.  Next step is pretty ugly-
AP - It's not that it can't be done, but rather people don't really have a clue as to the level of fanaticism and outright obsession that it takes to be successful, let alone get to the level where you can take money out of the casinos on a regular basis. Out of 1,000 people that earnestly try, maybe only one will make it.

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Joe

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Finding a good tipster is a bit like trying to find a black cat in a coal cellar. I'm a big fan of Joe Buchdahl, who has a great site full of free data for anyone who wants to develop soccer betting systems.

https://www.football-data.co.uk/data.php

He's also written some very good books on betting, including one titled How to Find a Black Cat in a Coal Cellar, which tells you how to evaluate a tipster's results using statistical techniques, and in fact is also very useful for checking your own systems. There's a good review of it here :

http://www.betfairprotrader.co.uk/2014/10/how-to-find-black-cat-in-coal-cellar.html

And no, I'm not Joe Buchdahl!  ;D

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ego

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Thanks, Joe - that is useful information - I will read that today.
I learn from John Patrick and use the Service and his book as a reference guide.
And Market-beaters.

Now, what is the true expectation - return on investment.
I comparing with the stock market and interest on the bank account.

A low-risk and long term investment portfolio give you around 10% in return on investment - but then is 30% taxes upon that.
Let's take 500 Euro investment - your return after one year is 50 Euro minus 30% tax 15 Euro - Total profit 35 Euro
A bank account gives 3% or lower interest for one-year savings, so I will skip that comparison as it would be worthless.

Now Market beaters take 15 Euro a mount if you buy a half year package with one Tipster.
That is 89 Euro in the fee.
They place around 30 to 40 placed bets a month and during the one-half year, you get around 200 or more placed bets.
The expectation is 268 Euro in return on an investment minus 89 Euro fee - give you a total tax-free 178 Euro.

Stock-market return on investment 35 Euro with 500 Euro investment.
Market beaters return on investment 178 Euro with 500 Euro investment.

Now I play a total of 20 Euro flat betting using two Tipsters and my return on investment is 537 Euro.
But I pay monthly and then the fee is cost a little more 19 Euro that is around 120 Euro for each tipster for one-half year.
Fee 240 Euro minus 537 Euro give me a total of 287 Euro as pure winnings.

This is not getting rich quick but for sure a better investment than the stock market.
And the amount of work to be involved make you think twice if it's worth it.

Comments on that?

Cheers
Denial of gamblers fallacy is usually seen in people who has Roulette as last option for a way to wealth, debt covering and a independent lifestyle.  Next step is pretty ugly-
AP - It's not that it can't be done, but rather people don't really have a clue as to the level of fanaticism and outright obsession that it takes to be successful, let alone get to the level where you can take money out of the casinos on a regular basis. Out of 1,000 people that earnestly try, maybe only one will make it.

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ego

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Just have to mention that the sport's return on investment is based upon half year and stock market one year.
So the sports give you a double return on investment than the numbers I mention.

Note - risk management.

Escalating staking plan - assume you always play 2% of bankroll - then the return on investment will become much higher.
For example 500 Euro with 10 Euro flat betting - 2%.
/50 Euro with 15 Euro flat betting - 2%
1000 Euro with 20 Euro flat betting - 2%

Cheers
Denial of gamblers fallacy is usually seen in people who has Roulette as last option for a way to wealth, debt covering and a independent lifestyle.  Next step is pretty ugly-
AP - It's not that it can't be done, but rather people don't really have a clue as to the level of fanaticism and outright obsession that it takes to be successful, let alone get to the level where you can take money out of the casinos on a regular basis. Out of 1,000 people that earnestly try, maybe only one will make it.

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ego

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 I don't understand the following - on Markeatbeaters home site they say you can expect 268 Euro after 200 placed bets.
 And I check tipster Inside (109% ROI) last month to see how many picks he made, around 35 placed bets.
 Then I check Daniels (112% ROI) over 60 placed bets last month - many live games ...

 Now i have been active for nine days and I am up 220 Euro playing 10 Euro flat betting and 2% of the bankroll.
 I assume there will be up and downs, but at the moment we are moving upwards.

 Today I won several bets and lost very little, two of them was winning at 4.75 and 5.00 odds.

 Cheers
Denial of gamblers fallacy is usually seen in people who has Roulette as last option for a way to wealth, debt covering and a independent lifestyle.  Next step is pretty ugly-
AP - It's not that it can't be done, but rather people don't really have a clue as to the level of fanaticism and outright obsession that it takes to be successful, let alone get to the level where you can take money out of the casinos on a regular basis. Out of 1,000 people that earnestly try, maybe only one will make it.

 

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