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a system with interesting performance

Started by Roulettebeater, Nov 14, 01:50 PM 2019

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Kav

Quote from: Roulettebeater on Nov 18, 05:46 AM 2019
Kav,
You mentioned that the probability of 13 random number that hit once within three trials is ~ 72.71 %

Now my system has a probability of 73.4%
Can we talk here about an advantage ?

I don't know.
I have heard stories of people winning for many thousand of spins and then the system stops to win. So it could just be a bit of luck (positive variance).
A lot depends on your bet selection. How did you came up with it. Does it have some solid logic reasoning? (most bet selection I read have no logic reasoning) Or it is just a "let's try this and see how it goes" type of bet selection in the first place?

Joe

Quote from: Roulettebeater on Nov 18, 05:46 AM 2019Kav,
You mentioned that the probability of 13 random number that hit once within three trials is ~ 72.71 %

Now my system has a probability of 73.4%
Can we talk here about an advantage ?

Running the same test of proportion as in my last analysis gives these results (sample size 20,000 bets):





The p-value is less than 5% (about 2.8%), so it's unlikely that the result is due to chance. But as before, I recommend that you get another sample and repeat the test.

And you should realize that just because the result is 'statistically' significant, it doesn't mean that it's 'practically' significant, because you may not have enough of an edge to make a profit.
Logic. It's always in the way.

Roulettebeater

Quote from: Joe on Dec 04, 05:50 AM 2019
Running the same test of proportion as in my last analysis gives these results (sample size 20,000 bets):





The p-value is less than 5% (about 2.8%), so it's unlikely that the result is due to chance. But as before, I recommend that you get another sample and repeat the test.

And you should realize that just because the result is 'statistically' significant, it doesn't mean that it's 'practically' significant, because you may not have enough of an edge to make a profit.

I also think so
I have added more data and the result is still the same !
regardless the statistical significance, I still can’t win flatbetting, so There is need for a progression   
A dollar won is twice as sweet as as a dollar earned

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