Theoretical Stat Advantage

[amk]

I have a question about a theoretical stat. This stat is not correct but want to see if anyone has any ideas of how it could win longterm, would it give us an advantage? Perhaps this can help us to develop a winning method.

Theoretical Stat: dozen 3 always has one repeating number during 37 spins. The max amount of numbers to land in 37 spins will never be more then 10.

Given these parameters would it not mean that the first number to land in dozen 3 will have at most a 1 in 10 chance of hitting again during any 37 spin cycle?

Does this mean in any way that the absolute truth in roulette that any number has a 1 in 37 chance of landing during a 37 spin cycle is challenged? By this I mean if on spin one we select a random number to bet on before any number has landed, we continue to bet on this number continually. After ?100K spins this number will have shown up on average once every 37 spins.

NOW, with these theoretical parameters in place does it in any way change this 1 in 37 stat for a single number being hit? By this I mean if from spin 1 we wait for the first number to land in dozen 3 and bet on it until the end of the 37 spin cycle. Then remove the bet, start a new 37 spin cycle, once the first number lands in dozen 3 start to bet on it again etc etc. Will it not mean that this number will hit above expectation some how?

The first number to land in dozen 3 during any 37 spin cycle will have at most a 1 in 10 chance of landing again since dozen 3 will always have one repeating number and no more then 10 numbers landing (during 37 spins)

What does this theoretical situation mean? Would there be a way given these parameters to create a longterm winning method?

Thanks for your time and really interested to see what the ideas/insights are out there.

[amk]

Made one typing error: dozen 3 will only have a max of 10 numbers landing during any 37 spin cycle (not just 10 numbers landing on the table during 37 spins)

Theoretical Stat: dozen 3 always has one repeating number during 37 spins. The max amount of numbers to land in dozen 3 duirng 37 spins will never be more then 10.

[Joe]

Even if the 'theoretical stat' is true, why should it only apply to dozen 3?

[Joe]

The max amount of numbers to land in dozen 3 duirng 37 spins will never be more then 10.

This is false, anyway. From the fact that you can see 30+ spins without a dozen hitting, it follows that there must be more than 10 hits in one of the other dozens. Of course that doesn't necessarily mean that 10 unique numbers in one of those dozens will be hit, but it's more likely than not. So I don't know where your 'theoretical stat' comes from; it's not from probability theory.

[Elite]

probability 24 numbers in 36 spins... so each dozen can have 8 numbers. It cannot be 10 in 3rd Dozen. and 7 ,7 in other two dozen..

[amk]

Thanks for the replies so far!

Keep in mind this is all just theoretical, the parameters are just in place to see if the first number to appear in dozen 3 will have some sort of different hit rate then expected. Again the scenario is, there will always be one repeating number in dozen 3, there will also never be more then 10 numbers hit out of dozen 3 during a 37 spin cycle. This implies that there could just be 1 or 2 numbers landed in 37 spins but one of those numbers always will repeat.

I will also explain one parameter better. I mentioned that we wait until the first number lands in dozen 3. This "wait" will  always be at least 4 spins. SO if 4 spins have gone by and no number has landed yet in dozen 3 we will start betting on the first number to land in dozen 3 after this point.

NOW, the theoretical situation is as follows:

4 or more spins in the 37 spin cycle have gone by, our first number on dozen 3 is landed on spin 5. We start betting on this number for the rest of the 37 spin cycle. Since one of the numbers in dozen 3 will always repeat and no more than 10 numbers will land in dozen 3 it means that our number (the first number to always land in dozen 3) has at most a 1 in 10 chance of landing again during the next 33 spins. Once the 37 spin cycle is over we remove our bet and we start this process over again etc etc

Since this number has at most a 1 in 10 chance of landing again in the next 33 spins longterm have we deviated from the universal stat of 1 number having a 1 in 37 chance of landing during a 37 spin cycle

More importantly how would you capitalize on this fact? What betting method would you use if you saw an advantage?

[Person S]

Not always...

[Joe]

probability 24 numbers in 36 spins... so each dozen can have 8 numbers. It cannot be 10 in 3rd Dozen. and 7 ,7 in other two dozen..

Well sure, but this is averages. If averages played out in roulette at all times the game would be very easy to beat! 

[Joe]

have we deviated from the universal stat of 1 number having a 1 in 37 chance of landing during a 37 spin cycle

No.

[Winner]

There’s no reason to stop once you get your first repeat.within the 3 dozen you just start tracking over again because it will always be 1 in 37.

[amk]

Let me put it another way.

Dozen 3 will always have one repeating number during 37 spins. The max amount of numbers to land in dozen 3 during a 37 spin cycle will be 10 numbers. Given these theoretical stats what method would you apply?

[Joe]

IF it's true that there are no more than 10 numbers in doz 3, you could just wait until 10 numbers arrived in it and then bet the other two dozens for the remainder of the cycle. You would never lose.

You could easily come up with any number of 'what-if' scenarios, but they don't address the central reality of roulette which is that future spins don't care about what's already happened and so are never constrained by the past.