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Roulettebeater

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Ask for a Valentine's day special.
You never know..

In order to get a 5% Valentine’s Day discount, you need To provide a proof that U have a girlfriend or wife
A dollar won is twice as sweet as as a dollar earned

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Joe

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and steve is right...or do you disagree

For the most part, I agree with him. But I personally know players who use systems based largely on money management techniques who make consistent profits (ie, a living) from playing roulette and baccarat. Their results don't show any true mathematical edge and yet they are successful, so I have an open mind on the subject. I suspect Taotie is one of them but of course I've no way of verifying it.
The key to successful speculation is paying less for something than its value. Roulette systems are poor value because all bets are worth less than what you pay for them.

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Steve

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Joe, how many players? How many spins have they played in their lifetime? What is their lifetime profit?

If you knew 10 players who used a reasonable progression, how many would be in profit after about 10,000 spins? Some winners, some losers. Would the winners be earning a living?

In my page i call it the illusion of a winning system: www.roulettephysics.com/roulette-strategy/

stringbeanpc

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Maybe I'll start a thread on how to beat roulette without any prediction. It will have to be in the 'Outside The Box' section though.

That would be an interesting read. Looking forward to such a thread.

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Joe

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Steve, well I only know two people who I can definitely say are winning way beyond what can be expected due to chance. They've both been playing for years and have clocked up 100s of thousands of bets, so there's no question about it being an illusion or just a winning streak.

One of them plays roulette online. He's an ex programmer who lost his job about 10 years ago and couldn't get another because of his age and his skills were out of date (he used to program in a business environment using Cobol). He only plays online and worked on a tracker program for over a year (I've seen it and it has over 20,000 lines of code). Basically it has a lot of systems built in (about 50) which are played continually against the input spins until there are a certain number of virtual losses which triggers a bet with that system. It's a bit more complex than that but that's the basic logic. He plays daily and has a target of about 20 units which takes him between 2-4 hours.

The other guy plays Bacc at B & M casinos only. He's been playing professionally for about 7 years, 3 or 4 shoes every day. His systems aren't anything special but he mixes things up a lot and doesn't use aggressive progressions.

Neither of these guys are rich but they both earn decent incomes using systems that we would both dismiss as worthless because they don't increase the accuracy of predictions.

I've asked the roulette guy for his program but he won't give it to me, don't blame him I suppose because it was a huge amount of work. He says he'll give me the details but I have to code it myself. So far I've been too lazy to do that because I don't really need the income, but I might get around to it one day.
The key to successful speculation is paying less for something than its value. Roulette systems are poor value because all bets are worth less than what you pay for them.

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Steve

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I can believe someone winning for some time, even against rng. I've seen random bets survive even 50,000+ spins.

But no system can work forever against random results. It's just not possible.

The possibilities I see with people you mentioned are:

1. They've just been lucky (assuming they're playing rng),

2. They're exploiting poor quality rng (in which case it just wouldn't last, because the casino would eventually catch on),

3. They're playing against real wheels.

4. They're using something along the lines of precognition or casino collusion.

But to sustain winnings against random spins is just not possible. The payouts will always be below the odds.

Hundreds of thousands of bets is still within the realms of luck, especially with progression (for example, 15 bets per 10,000 spins). The most likely cause is plain luck. For example see on http://www.rouletteplayers.org/leaderboard there are quite a few big winners there. If it were real money, they'd think they were masters who conquered rng. But really it's just basic statistics, and it's a convincing illusion of a winning system. It happens in real casinos the same way.

Believe me I'd love to be shown otherwise. I just can't ignore basic statistics.

You cannot sustain winnings with money management alone. That's impossible too.

If I was wrong about this, I would literally put my balls on the chopping block and smile while having them cut off. Yeah, I mean that.

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Steve

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In order to get a 5% Valentine’s Day discount, you need To provide a proof that U have a girlfriend or wife

Look it's the best I can do at short notice



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Roulettebeater

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Look it's the best I can do at short notice



Hahah, good one, Steve  :thumbsup:
This nasty girl works for the casino 🎰
A dollar won is twice as sweet as as a dollar earned

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Joe

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Hundreds of thousands of bets is still within the realms of luck, especially with progression (for example, 15 bets per 10,000 spins)

I myself have coded systems which have survived and shown a profit after 500,000 bets, but never without huge drawdowns which nobody could tolerate in real life. This guy (the roulette player) doesn't get them and always makes his 20 units with only modest drawdowns of a couple of hundred units at most. I know because he's a meticulous record keeper and I've seen the results.

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The possibilities I see with people you mentioned are:

1. They've just been lucky (assuming they're playing rng),

I concede that this is possible, but highly unlikely given that he's been playing for years. I'll get in touch and ask him how many bets he's made since playing online with his software.

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2. They're exploiting poor quality rng (in which case it just wouldn't last, because the casino would eventually catch on),

I agree, highly unlikely.

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3. They're playing against real wheels.

Sorry, don't understand this one. Why should he be able to win against real wheels playing systems? He's not using any AP techniques.

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4. They're using something along the lines of precognition or casino collusion.

No, he just bets what the software tells him to and it's completely mechanical. And I'm sure he would scoff at the idea of precognition.
The key to successful speculation is paying less for something than its value. Roulette systems are poor value because all bets are worth less than what you pay for them.

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ati

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If he created a program that is capable of tracking and keeping a record of everything, then it should certainly be able to simulate the system and see how it behaves over a very long period.
I believe that it's quite possible to win for years with a system, even if it would bust after a million spins. Even Bayes said that although he doesn't think it's possible mathematically, he was still doing very well with his systems.
But having a win target sounds like hit and run to me. A real winning system that can produce a steady profit should have no limits. In theory a person could easily make $50K or more every day with an actual HG, but of course he would be banned from all casinos within a few weeks.

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Taotie

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Most people use progression of some sort and win targets are a sensible way to reset progressions before they get too risky. You can hit a low win target 20 times a day if you like so it's not really the same as hit and run.

Ricky

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Here is a great artical that gives more detail on the Russian hackers approach to cracking the PRNG
https://www.wired.com/2017/02/russians-engineer-brilliant-slot-machine-cheat-casinos-no-fix/

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Herby

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If he created a program that is capable of tracking and keeping a record of everything, then it should certainly be able to simulate the system
From my experience I would say the other way: If you know programming its easier to track numbers (you maybe have to learn a new programming language) than to build a complex strategy (easier to programm in the better known programming language);  for example rrbb and VdW combined.

 

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