2,565,726,409 to 1 ODDS - Number 8 hit 6x in-a-row!!!

[Joe]

But this task is one of the best math tasks that are related to gambling.  Simply say which player will win in the long run...

I don't think you've been very clear in describing the problem, because your english isn't great. If one player bets for the sequence 4-5-6 and the other player bets for 6-6-6 it doesn't mean that the first player will win in the long run, assuming there was such a game. In fact it applies equally to roulette, and betting for #4 followed by #5 followed by #6 won't give you an advantage over betting for 3 consecutive #6's.

[Steve]

Are you serious?

Do the testing.

Who's in the stone age?

[gorki]

Incorrect. All those sequences happen the same amount of times. Don't believe me? Do lots of testing.

show me a string of 32 black (or any EC) on live roulette and even rng
i will show you that the last 16 ec is repeated 13,14,15,16 times (32 spins in total) even on live roulette and "relatively" often

I have never seen 32 ec repetitions, not even on 145 000 live spins

[Steve]

Gorki, choose any sequence of 32 spins. Then see how long it takes to repeat. Its exactly the same as any other sequence.

Learn. It is so old. Its classic fallacy. Understand what im saying. It's not opinion. Its fact.

[huskerdu]

the odds of coming six same numbers in a row is : 1 / (37*37*37*37*37) = 1 / 69,343,957
So it is a mistake saying the generic theory that roylette don't see thew previous numbers so in every spin we have 1/37 chances to come up a number.
Yes it is 1/37 for every spin, but to come up specific numbers in six spins the statistics are : 1 / 69,343,957

[Steve]

Husker exactly what are you saying?

Are you saying some sequences are more likely?

[huskerdu]

Husker exactly what are you saying?

Are you saying some sequences are more likely?

The propability for specific numbers to come in a row is different from the propability for  any other random numbers from the rest of roulette numbers to come.
Lets say number 8 comes. The propability to come another nr. 8 is 1/37. But the propability to come any other number except 8 is 36/37. So we have 2,7% chances to come another 8 after the first 8 and  97,3% chances to come any other number except 8.
Lets say that two numbers 8 have come in a row. The propability for a third nr.8 in a row to come is 1/ (37*37) = 1/1.369  (0,073%). The propability for any other nr to come except 8 is 99,927.
And so on.....
So we may say that theoritically in every roulette has no memory, we may say that in every spin any number has a 1/37 propability to come, but there ara also statistics which give us different propabilities based on previeus spins.

[Steve]

Lets say number 8 comes. The propability to come another nr. 8 is 1/37. But the propability to come any other number except 8 is 36/37

If the probability of the next number is still 1 in 37, then WHY do you exclude previous numbers from spinning next?

The wheel doesnt give a crap what numbers you want to exclude and why. It doesn't care about your reasoning or expectations.

[Joe]

If the probability of the next number is still 1 in 37, then WHY do you exclude previous numbers from spinning next?

He's not excluding any numbers, but IF a number is going to hit multiple times in a row, then it must mean that other numbers can't hit. That's just the logic needed to get the calculations correct.

[maestro]

It doesn't care about your reasoning or expectations.

it does...else would keep banging number 8 all day long...
told you  to come out of the cave

[huskerdu]

Let's do some.maths.
The propability to come Black or Red in the first spin is 1/2  (50%.)
Let's say RED comes.
In the next spin, the propability to  come Black or Red is again 1/2 (50%).
But the propability to come e.g.  RED after RED is 1/4 because of this reason:
For two spins all the combinations are RB, RR, BR, BB. So we have 1/4 of chances to come a RR.
So maybe for the second spin by itself the chances of the RED to come is 1/2 but the chances to come RED after RED are 1/4 (25%).
For 3 spins we have the combinations:
RRR, RRB, RBB, RBR, BRR, BBR, BBB, BRB,.
So for 3 spins we have 1/8 (12,5%) chances for the RRR to come.
So maybe for the third spin by itself the chances of the RED to come is 1/2 but the chances to come RED after two REDs are 1/8 (12,5%).
And so on..... for the next spins dor the RED to continue coming the propabilities are 1/16, 1/32, 1/64, 1/128, 1/256, 1/512 .....
So think of,  instead of Black and Red to have one number against the rest of the numbers...

[Richard Meisel]

Oh, just checking my post

[Richard Meisel]

Mixing 2 probabilities. After 2 consecutive REDS, if you take 3 as the unit, the chances are 1/8. But the real Odds of RED hitting on the 3rd Spins is 18/38 on the American wheel and 18/37 on the European. Just to add: on the American 38 number wheel the number of possibilities after 38 Spins is 2 to the power of 38 which is 274,877,906,944 and on the European 37 number wheel the number of possibilities is 2 to the power of 37 is 137,438,953,472. These are very big numbers, in the trillions. So mathematically the real Odds of getting, for instance, 37 or 38 consecutive REDS is the same as any other 37 or 38 number. This is why I don't trust in counting Hits and Rehits and 12-14 Doubles in 42 Spins and the like. I prefer running a progression on the so called Even bets, winning about 80 per cent, losing 1 and Winning 4.

[Steve]

If your theories were correct and had value, you'd be winning fortunes. But you're not. "The proof is in the pudding".

Enough said.

[Richard Meisel]

Don't know you, Steve. I'm new to the forum. Be nice. Is Martin Silverthorne a part of this forum? I took his Super Neural Strategy and tweaked his Betting Progression and changed his Targets and his Betting scheme, and am Winning around 80 per cent. I'm using a random generator which I don't really trust and can't wait to get to Vegas as you can't play craps and roulette in Arizona. If you reply to this, please be nicer with your comments and please don't take this as personal.