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Does it count as edge or is it normal result?

Started by BellagioOwner, Jun 06, 06:54 PM 2021

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BellagioOwner

Hi everyone. Haven't been active around for a long time. Been trying some other projects as well outside of roulette.

I would like to as though, is after 257 spins of flat betting (EC Bet Red/Black but on No-Zero Roullete) a +19 units considered as having an edge, or is it just normal distribution and could still be negative in the long(er) run?

Thanks for any replies in advance and have a nice day everyone :)
You can edit a bad page but you can't edit a blank page. Try things out! Don't procrastinate or wait perfect timing! Just start what you wish to do finally!

ati

Hi,
Good question. I'd say it's random variance. The fact is that the odds cannot be changed.
All 257 bet results are independent and each has exactly 50% chance of winning.

Blueprint

Quote from: ati on Jun 07, 05:10 PM 2021All ... bet results are independent

I’ve yet to see proof of this


ati

Yeah, it's a fact, not a proof. If I remember correctly, even Bayes said that you cannot prove independence.
Maybe one possible way to prove it, would be to collect every single number from a different source. It must have the same characteristics as a random sequence from the same source.

Priyanka said once that random has rules, and I agree with that. In a large enough sequence, a repeat on the 7th spin will always happen more often than a repeat on the 4th or on the 10th spin. Otherwise we could say that the sequence is not random. Does that mean that past results affect future outcomes? I say no, but I can't prove it.
Without dependence we cannot beat random. And we know that it's possible to create dependencies, but that's a whole different topic.


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