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## Differential Betting with positive progression 2-1-2-4

Started by huskerdu, May 12, 02:51 PM 2020

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#### huskerdu

I'm working on some ideas of differential betting with various positive progressions.
The reason is:
With differenaial betting you feel more safe because you don't have to worry on which side of EC to bet,  and also, the positive progressions never cause big loses.
So:
Differential betting on any E/C
Positive progression 2-1-2-1
Which means we start with 2, if win bet 1, if win bet 2, if win bet 4. Stop and start again progression.
If at any step we lose we start the progression from the start (bet 2 units).
For those 4 steps, there are 16 different outcomes, but because half of them are the same I write down only the 8
What i mean is that when i have  on the left side WWWW and on the right side LLLL i don;t write down the oposite (LLLL and WWWW) as it is the same.

W +2      L -2
W +1      L -2
W  +2     L -2
W +4      L -4
TOTAL: +1

W +2      L -2
W +1      L -2
W  +2     L -2
L  -4       W +4
TOTAL: -1

W +2      L -2
W +1      L -2
L  -2        W +2
W +2      L -1
TOTAL: 0

W +2      L -2
L   -1       W +2
W  +2     L -1
W +1      L -2
TOTAL: +1

W +2      L -2
W +1      L -2
L  -2       W -2
L -2         W =1
TOTAL: -2

W +2      L -2
L -1      W +2
W +2     L -1
L -1      W +2
TOTAL: +3

W +2      L -2
L -1        W +2
L  -2        W +1
W +2      L -2
TOTAL: 0

W +2      L -2
L -1       W +2
L  -2      W +1
L -2       W +2
TOTAL: 0

So, we have:

37,5% : 0
25% : +1
12,5% : +3
12,5% : -2
12,5% : -1

Totally:

37,5% : +5
37,5% : 0
25% : -3

It's favorite outcome is streaks of same color (BBBB or RRRR) and choppy (BRBR or RBRB but also BRBB or RBRR)

#### huskerdu

Quote from: huskerdu on May 12, 02:51 PM 2020So:
Differential betting on any E/C
Positive progression 2-1-2-1
Sorry for the mistake by accident:
The progression is 2-1-2-4 as it is written on the title

#### daveylibra

Quote from: huskerdu on May 12, 02:51 PM 2020

W +2      L -2
W +1      L -2
W  +2     L -2
W +4      L -4
TOTAL: +1

I think this should be -1.

#### huskerdu

Quote from: daveylibra on May 12, 04:58 PM 2020W +2      L -2
W +1      L -2
W  +2     L -2
W +4      L -4
TOTAL: +1

I think this should be -1.

W +2      L -2
W +1      L -2
W  +2     L -2
W +4      L -2
TOTAL: +1

The last L was written by mistake -4 but it is -2. So TOTAL is +1 as I wrote
Thanks

#### daveylibra

Quote from: huskerdu on May 12, 02:51 PM 202037,5% : 0
25% : +1
12,5% : +3
12,5% : -2
12,5% : -1

Totally:

37,5% : +5
37,5% : 0
25% : -3

OK, now if this is correct you are on to a winner!
But if you don't mind me saying I think the +5 above should be  +4.
But still a winner!

so for Black / Red
BBBB  betting B would give +2, +1, +2, +4 = +9
betting R would give -2, -2, -2, -2 = -8

Differentialy, we bet 0, 1R, 0, 2B.
Initially we have "no bet" until we see the first result.
(am I correct so far?)
Could you, if you don't mind, show how you get the results in your W / L table?

#### huskerdu

Quote from: daveylibra on May 12, 06:59 PM 2020OK, now if this is correct you are on to a winner!
But if you don't mind me saying I think the +5 above should be  +4.
But still a winner!

so for Black / Red
BBBB  betting B would give +2, +1, +2, +4 = +9
betting R would give -2, -2, -2, -2 = -8

Differentialy, we bet 0, 1R, 0, 2B.
Initially we have "no bet" until we see the first result.
(am I correct so far?)
Could you, if you don't mind, show how you get the results in your W / L table?

Yes you hve right on both of it!!
Totally:

37,5% : +4
37,5% : 0
25% : -3

And, yes, differentialy, we bet 0, 1R, 0, 2B.

Example
Outcome        Bet on R                Bet on B          Differential
B                             2  (L)                   2  (W)                0
R                             2   (W)                1 (L)               Bet 1 to R
B                             1  (L)                   2 (W)             Bet 1 to B
R                             2 (W)                 1 (L)               Bet 1 to R

#### Kav

Hi,

I have not checked all your numbers. But I can tell you how to correctly calculate your totals, based your previous calculations are correct.

37,5% : 0
25% : +1
12,5% : +3
12,5% : -2
12,5% : -1
translates to

0,25 + 0,375 - 0,25 - 0,125 = 0,25
Which means that on average you will win 0,25 units on each attack. Which is pretty amazing.

Your totals are totally incorrect. As even with 37,5%: +4 they produce a +0,75 unit profit average. You can not just add percentages and win units. If you for example had 1% to win 50 units, you can not add that 50 units profit to the total win percentage if you also have 30% chance to win 1 unit., and say you have 31% to win 51 units.
Quote37,5% : +4
37,5% : 0
25% : -3

I'm afraid though that you have also made some mistake, or missed something, in you previous calculations too, because if you didn't, you have found a sure winner...

#### Kav

Here is you mistake

W +2      L -2
W +1      L -2
W  +2     L -2
L  -4       W +4
TOTAL: -1

It should be
W +2      L -2
W +1      L -2
W  +2     L -2
L  -4       W +2
TOTAL: -3

#### huskerdu

Quote from: Kav on May 13, 07:23 AM 2020Here is you mistake

W +2      L -2
W +1      L -2
W  +2     L -2
L  -4       W +4
TOTAL: -1

It should be
W +2      L -2
W +1      L -2
W  +2     L -2
L  -4       W +2
TOTAL: -3

You have ro6ght Kav, Thanks!!
Sorry for the mistake
I'll keep testing more positive progressions

#### Kav

You are welcome.
Interesting idea though!

#### Richard Meisel

Hi Husk, I've been looking at other progressions for your idea, both positive and negative progressions. Have you another one beside your 2-1-2-4?

W 2 L2
W1 L2
W2 L2
L4 W2

Minus -3
Correction

-