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The question is: how much does a player hope to want to win?

Started by Asterix, Jan 25, 07:45 PM 2024

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Asterix

Hello, yes like my topic, so this will speak on the subject, how much does a player hope to want to win? before realizing, that he is on the losing side.
Such if for example during a game on 10 tries an equal bet, therefore without progression, and now if he only has 2x winnings, and 8x losses. That such a game, will be announced, that the player if he uses a progression, in loss he will quickly feel it, in gains here as he has to face a small series of losses on the opposite side, he will just have lost a few basic pieces. And while the player who plays with the losing progression, yes he will already have to climb the rounds, having to bet more and more, to win these small coins, and thus regain the lost coins. because the player, with the progression of losses, also has a small vision of the winnings he hopes to win at the end of the evening. By winning only small winnings, as long as he is in luck, here he will always win the minimum of 1 coin, and now if during the evening, he will have lost -100 coins, this also means that he would have to win back a hundred times, before being left with just his starting capital again.
And so also, can a player, who plays a system, be happy to have a good system, if out of 10 games, he has just lost 8 times out of 10?

Asterix

So the Gamer, here i have found, a old text:
QuoteIstanbul newspaper of 12/17/1926
A man who regularly wins at gambling!

This is Mr. Marignyde Grilleau, author of a work: The Scientific Gain of a single unit in roulette.
He has firm only by practicing several months per year its method at the Casino Monte-Carlo, since a certain number of years with general bets average, he won some hundreds of thousand francs (in this year), "of which did – he said – the job that fooled me came ".
Mârigny says that it is not necessary to use a martingale.
"On average, out of 100 bets,lose from 42 to 44 and I win from 58 to 56. This profit of 12 to 100 (or
rather from 120 to 160 to 1,000, because there are fluctuations between the celiac (hundred) fully satisfies all those who put my method into practice after having studied it well. »
"Roulette – said Mr. Marigny – is like as the recording barometer,a physics instrument. She has
takes to know the order of production and distribution of phenomena natural, as well as the importance of deviations that may occur in their periodicity. »

Asterix

Sorry, so i use translator, all text are translate. Error:
Istanboul newspapper, in French Language.

And i follow with this:

Well now why did I send you a Marigny de Grilleau epitaph? Because here if the player wants to win in the long run, such over 100 spins. Here the player does not have much choice, he must reduce his goal of big daily winnings, in smaller quantities depending on the stake. and I find "lose from 42 to 44 and I win from 58 to 56". that this yes, for a classic player, would like to be satisfactory, but not for me.
How then can we reduce a loss from 42 to 44, let's say 50% less so as 21 to 22 lose?
Which would give me +50% more earnings in money.

How? yes how of course, quite simply since I didn't study the system, since a system is based on what we are going to play, and not the principle of the rise or progression.

We agree, Marigny de Grillau played on simple odds, such that he selected a chance that he was going to bet all evening, and with this, I would call it mini-progression, because from the moment we climb with his bets, from that moment on, it is no longer an even bet game, but beautiful is indeed a rising one.
And of course, Marigny de Grillau actually does not have a martingale, since the term martingale is rather used when a player plays a losing progression, to make up for his old winnings.
So him well before the American inverted or playing as a progression of Gain, well before already "Wentgern" and his "Unverlierbare" of 1930, therefore from his time when he was going to play roulette with his mini progression. Thus Marigny de Grilleau, had played winning progression.

But he also admits in his book that he only transformed the basic game or progression of Sextius, who had already published his book in 1875. So let's study and even do a test on a game that didn't take place in 1960 or with numbers still coming from the beginning or the 2010s, no here it's too old, I could even send you 1000 spins from Bad Homburg which was spinned in 1870. But it's all too old, no I'm only content with 2019, I can't do better for the moment, all the trends are still blocked either by players, or in the archives of some casinos.

Asterix

so:

Marigny have explain:
QuoteCombination of equal masses with 10 capitals

of 20 bets each.


Reserve and Capitalization

This combination, based on calculation and experience, is divided into two operations. Its principle is to only increase stakes as the gain obtained has produced an increase in the capital exposed; it is the only logical and rational method.

So today, i will use € Unit, and 1000€ as Bankroll.
So my 1000€ i divide it into 10x = 100€ mini-capital
And this 100€ i divide it into 20x = 5€ as starting bet.

QuoteWe then play the first session at the bet of 5 € of equal value (Flat), without paroli or progression, always 5€, loss or gain, until we have four time winning 5€, or twenty € win, and we remove them as soon as you have them. The first session is over.

so it say after:
QuoteIf we win

We then resume at the same stake of 5€ and we withdraw in the same way when we have won four coins, in the second, third, fourth and fifth sessions.

So goal is to win 100€ mini-capital in 5 session.

QuoteAfter the fifth session, the capital being doubled, we then play at the stake of 10€, the sixth, seventh and eighth sessions. These three sessions having produced a gain of 120€, we put 20€ in the reserve and we add the 100€ to the capital, which brings it to 300€, or 20 bets of 15€.

And here enter my modification for have more gain and reduce the lost.

Asterix

1st. 1000 is too much!
but it's just for training, only in blanks therefore only in numbers, we will use it to know its faults and then of course, try to rectify them.

Among other things, we know that out of 100 spins, there will be some things like 50% series of 1, and the other 50 percent = series 2 and more. series of 1 spin is nothing other than intermittence. so as a quick example, just R-B-R-B.
And so, if now I play Even and odd, having to counter, 50 series of 1 spin, opposite = 50% loss, because he can only do an Even spin and then he has to come back on Odd, which I now play Even, all evening, I would lose only 25 x5€ on 100 spins.
Whereas for me, by playing series 2+, here of course if the opposing side gives me a series of 8, it will hurt me a little, but it's bearable with 1000€ in total as playing capital. way, we will see what this will give with its numbers for the year 2019.

Asterix

humhum!
marigny1.png

Well, well, well, then already, by being in negative with -10 and then by winning with the 4 spins I arrive at +10. But as in the 3rd session, I had -22.5, so lost 1 session of 20, which therefore, despite the other gains, worked well. Well no, I don't just get to the +100 goal like that. For me, the problem here which is justified is that here in the short term, gained +20 is too much.
So you must if you in the United States, you have already seen football matches, uh sorry, you call it soccer match.
So here there is the match, the revenge and the last one.
Which means, if we manage to win the match, =1x the stake the players' side owes revenge to the opposing side. and if during this revenge, the identical side wins again, it is over. the winner is fixed.
but when during the revenge it is the opposing side which wins, there is therefore a tie. And there is the last one which will disparage the winner.

So here, instead of wanting to win 5x €20, I'm going to transform it into 10x €10.

Asterix

Aha! already better, here I have reached my 10 winnings, but not won the expected amount. This comes from the fact that I had gains at +5, and also others which only made me lose 5€. But having reached 30 spins and having won +30 = 1 spin = 1€ so it is already improved.
trans_basis_gain.png

Asterix

On 10th nex spin as 54th spin, here i won only +12.5, because 1x 0 we was arrived, and other we i lost. So +42.5, to now so i have won a bit, and nothing lost 10 or 20€, all is ok.
oh my lord, here so as Odds was wining side, and i have follower more as Even side, so as Ecart, I hope comming down, so i have change side, to Even side, and to now on 79 spin after 10 more try, nothing appear.But i won only 5€ more, this is wery bit as won from 54th to 79th spin. But, is gain side, nothing to now as Lost. But if Odds, continue with his ecart, so i think i coming in negatif value. But the question is When?

here coming my first negative value of 10th on 106th spin, with -7.5 lost. so i rest on +40 gain. So rest 60 to wining. and here we see it, as Wining last one piece, is wery difficult, if we are on false side. But I don't lose hope, it's my strategy that dictates it. 

Asterix

And yes number 0, coming on 106 spin 3-4 times. But many people have scary from 0, but don't forget, it have only 1/37 to coming, so as we play with 18 number, so this have more chance to coming as 0.
And in any Casino if 0 Coming, Value come into jail, after the player have good choice with gamed good chance,the value come back to player. This is not case on other game so not on Dozen, not on 1-6 etc...

Asterix

Ok here i now was on spin 200, miserable, on the 131st spin I regained +20 so I had increased to +62.5, or I said to myself, luck is coming back! at the 155th or the 10th I found myself again with -20, so at the same result before +42.5 the next 10 were reached at the 182nd spin. or I lost 10€ or +32.5 and here at spin 200 or the 7th attempt, I find myself at +10 for the moment. here I understand well Bonaparte, the nephew of Emperor Napoleon III, whose uncle had banned the game of roulette between 1850 and who went to Bad Homburg to play it, and he therefore only played the maximum bet, therefore without any amount. , it is also a way of playing flat, and which for 3 days had lost an amount, and that after 4-5 days, it came back in force, putting leblancs the director in an unfortunate loss situation.

Asterix

day_end_result.png

Oh my lord! But in positive as End of day, so as in one day, was spin 266.
So here i give you now, so as you can self use this 1st day from January 2019 from German casino Duisburg. Full list from all 266 spin Number. I self, will try it with Labouchère inverted, so wining side only.

23
32
10
36
16
5
25
35
1
16
7
22
1
31
23
33
7
31
24
19
18
9
34
1
8
30
28
15
0
35
20
32
5
32
13
31
18
6
24
13
33
19
28
1
20
31
2
31
21
19
28
16
5
27
9
25
35
5
20
18
16
31
21
7
5
0
34
23
1
34
20
4
8
5
26
0
19
8
25
9
27
34
29
1
20
25
20
19
8
13
12
5
25
19
20
34
0
28
7
25
13
14
26
17
34
35
20
9
34
24
21
0
5
24
4
0
4
12
10
5
20
9
26
28
1
15
16
8
15
14
10
20
14
12
35
34
25
12
28
23
33
25
23
15
13
17
34
1
35
5
12
1
28
16
8
10
21
12
5
15
35
15
9
15
14
34
31
4
30
31
17
25
4
23
12
2
27
14
28
29
10
11
26
33
16
33
14
22
5
31
14
12
3
24
15
2
4
22
33
23
15
4
34
16
20
24
11
16
28
12
28
30
23
27
1
29
32
36
15
23
32
30
36
28
7
15
1
21
8
16
7
33
14
16
22
28
6
10
11
32
2
33
29
30
27
12
27
33
36
5
20
23
5
28
15
1
7
18
6
33
33
8
20
32
33
36

Asterix

holy shit, because yes, I played too quickly, without reading the rest of the book.
And Marigny talks too much in his work about the gaps.
And all the other authors talk about it

QuoteHenri Chateau, Bille d'Ivoire (pseudonym of a man of whom regrets not knowing the name), Théo d'Alost, Maurice Ghehrardt. It is advisable to contact them M. J. de Surcques, director editor of the Revue de Monte-Carlo, who provides his readers,every week, the best, most practical advice. All
cleared the bushes. big road where we can now move forward. All suggest ingenious ways to narrow the Gap,of overcome it.
Almost everyone agrees on this great principle: we must not not play all spins. This alone is already crucial.
To make this clear to the reader, two examples here will suffice.
Let's take the outgoing game (one red after one red, one Black after another Black) ruinous if we follow the drawn meanders
Was publish on 1932, in French journal "le crie du jour"

So, than yes, here i schould read in deepness this book, because so we here all write, it only to play after a better ecart or Great ecart from one side or Red have +20 or more, or Odds or 19-36 have so Ecarts, so yes is too play it, so i come back, when i have more knowledge from this book

Asterix

For players who have good progressions on simple Chances games. And who would like to try them on other chances.
So follow me:
With simple Chances, here you have to win each spin. Otherwise on the second spin = refund of the stake.

Column and Dozens.
here the 1st winning spin = +2 coins
2nd Winning Spin = +1 coin
and on the 3rd = refund.
So if the player wins each 1st spin, of course over a limited period of time, he will win a lot of money, while with simple Chances, he will have to be patient to win at least series of 2 spins in a row.
Of course also, in the 3 spins for the attempts to refund. So here you will never be able to have such a series of 18 or 20 spins. Why not series of 6-8 spins, beyond that it will really become a case of being amazed.

For the sixain: The sixain is half the number of dozens, or 6 numbers in full. Or 6/37.(To play on Column,here you need 3 coins to bet on six number from top or bottom from Column so as 3-6 9-12 15-18)
So here with the 1st spin Winner = +5 coins (to 1 coin bet with 3 coins = 15 win with half column Bet.)
With the second winning spin = +4 coins
With the 3 winning spins = +3 coins
With the 4th spin Winning = +2 coins
With the 5th spin Winner = +1 coin
and with the 6th = refund of the stake of the 5 previous attempts.
So here you will see even fewer big series, yes it happens up to a 3, even 4, but after that, it would only be spins which we do not see happen for dozens or even 25 years. So doubles of sixains yes it's common during an evening, triplet, a few evenings only, the quartet, this one already belongs to the strokes of luck that we all dream of which happens once a fortnight or even a month.

Afterwards comes the square, i.e. 4/37 numbers. Here whether it is 0-1-2-3 or 1-2-4-7, it is counted as a square. Or +8 coins paid for each 1st spin won.
Or +7 coins for each 2nd spin won.
Or +6 coins for each 3rd spin won
Or +5 coins for each 4th spin won
Or +4 coins for each 5th spin won
Or +3 coins for each 6th spin won
Or +2 coins for each 7th spin Won
Or +1 coin for each 8th spin won
and the refund of the last 8 lost spins is won at the end of the 9th spin.

So I take the example of the Wells progression, which was nothing other than a progression Against d'Alembert.
The d'Alembert in simple chance = 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10
And the Wells = 10-9-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-1

Which therefore also means that here by playing its progressions on one of the other chances and games.
Dozens = 3 times more capital for the game
and for the sixain = 6x more than for the game on simple luck.

So yes, like beginners who start their games, with the d'Alembert, yes here I can only advise you, but only in Gain, the loss version, here it will quickly take you to hell.

This is therefore for simple chances, to play d'Alembert as a gain, therefore having a capital or Bankroll of 25 coins. and starting with 1 coin, yes here you can test your luck during 25 spins at 1$ or 1€ at the table where the minimum bet is 1 coin for 1€ or 1$.

So to play on dozens or columns, here your 25 pieces will quickly transform into a minimum of 75 pieces as Bankroll.
And for the Sixains game = 150 coins minimum bankroll.

So for d'Alembert, here we have several possibilities to play it.
That is: 1-1-1 for the dozen or columns, therefore on 3 spins to try to win.
or in 1-2, where we increase by one coin from the moment we win in the next 2 spins, and on the 3rd attempt, we try a round of 3 again, if there, in the next 2 spins we win , we therefore increase to 3, but if during the next 3 spins we lose, we go down by 1 coin. This second way on the progression of d'Alembert, yields more in terms of winnings than the primary version, and here therefore, whether you win 3 spins in a row, or only 1x the first spin, and 2x the 2nd spins, you will have always won the minimum or the room for increased.
As I mentioned, luck is limited in his games, so no hope of long streaks forming. And here I always talk about playing only on 1 single dozen or column, to play 24 numbers or the 2 dozen, of course always following the favorites and the mediums, in terms of output, such on 12 spins, there are 8x 1st dozen and 4x the 3rd dozen, so here yes it is a case of the 2/3 law, or again on 20 spins with 13x 1st and 7x second dozen, once again it is according to the law of 2/3 , so yes here you could go up and win d'Alembert's 10 winnings.
Of course also a dozen that she is frozen, she will continue to do her sleep as the bear, all the long where her temperature is low, but after she wakes up, the do will change quickly, and here she can also quickly become during the next 10 spins as favorite, or for the next 20 spins only as a replacement for the old Medium release. and the old medium, she will take up the torch, to let this time, the old favorite, let herself freeze, so a bear's sleeping.

It must also be obvious that if we play on 2 dozen, if we increase by +1 with the gain, we must deduct -2 for each loss.
Example +1+2+3+4-5+3+4+5-6+4+5+6
whereas if there would be this kind of negative progression.
+1+2-3 =0 +1-2= -1 +1+2-3 =0
there you won't even have to try any further, with 2 dozen bet, it will quickly take you to hell, where you will only be able to climb back up with difficulty. Because this kind of sign, are warnings, which when we don't respect them, it's like with a car, when we burn a first orange light, then a second, and the third turns red, and it This is where the car and even worse can lead to deaths, just because we did not want to respect the traffic lights.
Here you will always have to win at least 3x before losing 1x. But from the moment it turns into 2 spins won 1 lost, it's better to pass your turn, and wait to see what happens.
The signs can be like that turned green = -20 in output difference.

So yes, here I will try my luck, and I will continue to play. But with only -5 or -10 here the gap is not yet well seasoned with the right vinegar, and the right aromatics to have good taste, to please the customer, such here me, yes I would not try my chance.

And for beginners, yes here I only advise them to play when a dozen has not come out with a gap of -20, even to wait for the dozen that was frozen to come back in force. Such after 23 spins, it was missing, wait until it came out 2x if the 2x were in 3 spins, ok, on 6 spins, nope not yet.

Asterix


Asterix

the james bond system:
Here the betting it give 3 differents value.
14 coins to 19-36
5 coins on 13-18
and 1 coin to 0 number.

if 19-36 win, = -6 coins because we bet 20 coins.
by wining with 13-18 = +10 coins
and by wining with 0 +16 coins

Possibility to variant.
is poor chance as 0 coming out in short times or spin amount.

But the best variant, is too bet nothing simply chance, only 6 numbers.
so 5 coins on 3x and 1x 4 coins + 1 coin 0
So as exemple: 13-18 5 coins
19-24 = 4 coins
25-30 = 5 coins
and 31-36 5 coins.
So this on only the best way to with win, to have gain, and nothing lose.
here the player should use the 6 number to bet 4 coins coins as minimal bet, only the 6 number we are frozen, or we coming out all 6 times.

and yes, in case of this 24 numbers or 25 numbers betting system, if the 12 number lose side coming out, here you lose each time 20 coins, so with maximal capability wining on 6 numbers bet. so +10 coins win, here you should win 2 times to refund you old lost.

i self, i don't like play system we player should bet 24 number or more as 18 numbers.
because, with 6 numbers to bet more, = 2 time win to refund lost money we you have lost in 1 spin.

with 50/50 chance betting, i like more win +1 coins on 3 spin so as +1-1 +1.
And betting 20 coins???? is too many money, if the player have hope or expectation to win only +10 each 5 spin.

-