THE TRUTH REALLY IS HERE

[iceman1313]

The truth is

Wrong
if you keep playing, the HOUSE EDGE WILL BEAT YOU IN THE END.  You can't argue with probability; YOU CAN'T BEAT PROBABILITY.

It's simply Common Sense, isn't it?

Right
Yes you can beat Probability its simple really.  All you have to do is find enough of Probability to find the Absolute Probability.  Which I might add can pin point any event.  Albert Einstein was wrong that things canââ,¬â,,¢t predict an event to a pin point.  Todayââ,¬â,,¢s computers can do just that.  I have found this is true that all events can be predict

Regards
The Iceman1313

[chrisbis]

For me..............

Can Be Beaten. Not so much....what is the Truth....more a reality !! 

U just have to vary Ur play.

Use many many different strategies.

Play SMART.

Then u give Urself a Player-Edge!!

[iceman1313]

That has nothing to do with what I posted.  Read my post again.

Vary Means nothing
Using different strategies means nothing
Play smart sounds good.
There is no players edge,unless you use Absolute Probability. 

Regards
The Iceman1313

[iceman1313]

Wrong

I said one day that I would drop the bomb.  I know that I have given the mathboyz a lot of disagreement over the past four years.  It's because I was not willing to share something profound with them.  They love real advantage.  They completely understand that in the game of 21 there is a mathematical and finite value for advantage as the deck goes from 52 cards down to the end of its functional utility.

Now consider this: If a characteristic is true and pure to a discernible degree.  If that characteristic has a duration to it that tends to continue for a time, then during that duration of continuation a mathematical advantage exists as long as that characteristic continues.  There is no other reason for a characteristic like that continuing other than a normal distribution of randomness.  There is no force that can cause it to discontinue other than a normal distribution of randomness.  In other words, there is no force that can cause or prevent an advantage from starting to occur in the game of Roulette.  One of the very best examples of this is in the form of the "global effect. " That is a term I made up to describe the phenomenon.

Now go forth and win your Fields Medal and your Nobel Prize. 

  Right is

  Absolute Probability will tell you when a change will occur.



wrong

exists as long as that characteristic continues

RIGHT
is to use the characteristic in the  Absolute Probability

Iceman1313

[Colbster]

Sorry bud - you sound absolutely, probability nuts! 

[chrisbis]

I DID refer to Ur post.

What I forgot to say is.

Right.

I am getting probability just about right.

Hows that?

(Probably still not correct for U)

[Big EZ]

Iceman....

Could you please enlighten us on how you apply Absolute Probability?

[F_LAT_INO]

Iceman....

Could you please enlighten us on how you apply Absolute Probability?

Probably absolutely big words without much real effect.
Only science.

[mr.ore]

If that characteristic has a duration to it that tends to continue for a time, then during that duration of continuation a mathematical advantage exists as long as that characteristic continues.  There is no other reason for a characteristic like that continuing other than a normal distribution of randomness.

That is true - probability can create a certain advantage, and that advantage can be present for thousands of spins. I have tested this, computer program found rules which were used for a system and it survived many past spins (so take spins, find some rules, then play on them, system knew them in a hindsight). The problem is, that it was fitted to last spins, and it always failed on new spins. So the advatage is there, you can find it for known last spins, but you can't know how long will it last. BTW it was a simple system where first bet was x% of drawdown, second bet y% of drawdown, third bet z% of drawdown and so on maybe to 4th or 5th level. The sum of percentages was always 1. Virtual loss was added to drawdown every spin (like 0.05 per spin), so I could control how many units/spin it won on average. All what program did was to found those percentages, and they could have been always found for last spins. It was based on ideas of "very near infallible method". If there were a dominance of series, y and z were higher while x was lower, so more recover have been done on series than singles. Or if there was more singles, then x value was higher and rest lover. I thought of dynamicaly change these, but did not find a rule.

The problem there - how to found a bet selection that will be a winner in future? There is no way I know of, all you can do is betting that you have right one. So advantage is hidden from us, and we can't found it. If you found it, it is like if you have won a jackpot, the chance is very small (and the profit from it is like winning jackpot of course). So yes - there can be people, who created their system, and no matter how weird it is, even if it is based on astrology or magic or anything similar, it might work for them. They might be lucky and their personal lucky bet selection can be based on something like that, and actually work. But any method will fail in the end. Look, when I was testing some system, it happend it have been working for tens of thousands of spins, it must happen for someone. But sometimes it failed so often that it never recovered before another failure.

You might be right in this - there MIGHT exist a system, that if played, then all who play it in the upcoming ten years, will always win. No matter who, no matter where. Some event, that no ones sees, which NEVER happens MIGHT be hidden there. If you find all events that does not happen or happen much less than expected, then for sure you have that "almost" holy grail among them. But even so, there would be TOO MANY of these systems. Which one to select - nobody knows. So in the end, we can do nothing. After ten years pass, we can get all our spins together, and we can found it was actually there, just before our eyes, but we were just blind 

[furple]

"absolute probability

    Conventionally, it is known as discrete probability, as an example, the binomial probability distribution. For absolute probability (quantized probability), the random variable only takes on positive integer values, e.g. 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, ââ,¬Â¦ The lowest bound of zero is sometime ignored but the largest upper bound approaching infinity is never used for all practical purposes. In practice, by the central limit theorem, most absolute probability functions are often approximated by the continuous probability of a normally distributed Gaussian error function whose area integral is set exactly unity.

    Unfortunately, the domain of continuous functions includes irrational numbers. These numbers possess built-in intrinsic probabilities of absolute unpredictability. As an example, the decimal expansion of p(see link:://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pi)would indicate. The probability of predicting which decimal digit among 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 will appear next changes according to its previous appearance in the decimal sequence if not then their probabilities are all equal to zero." ( Antonio Lao)....




In other words. Tomorrow never comes.

[iceman1313]

Well it seems we are getting some nice information you might say a different look at things.  But in fact a little off I might say in what I am trying to explain here.  Absolute Probability means, to put Probability in such a situation that itââ,¬â,,¢s not possible to escape . Once this is done you take the highest Probability that is left to play your event.  It takes many, many, many Probability to ensure you have the right answer to any event to a pin point.

Iceman1313

[iceman1313]

The only other person that knows this is a person that beat Keno.  He now isnââ,¬â,,¢t allowed to play the game anymore which I think is unfair.
The reason why this man has beaten the game is the same reason what I have discovered for many years now.  Random Numbers arenââ,¬â,,¢t Random. 
Also the wheel has a memory; WOW did I blow your mind on that one.  Any person with even with a little thought would know this by now.  Maybe Iââ,¬â,,¢ll give you a sample
Why donââ,¬â,,¢t you see the number 25 come out ten times in a row, then 10 more then 10 more.  The answer is the wheel already knows and remembers what has happened the spins before.  And you people canââ,¬â,,¢t see that after all these years.  Itââ,¬â,,¢s a shame really.  When oh when will people open their eyes and see the old story about the wheel is just old.

The Iceman1313

[esoito]

@iceman1313

"I know that I have given the mathboyz a lot of disagreement over the past four years.  "

Have you, now?

And "...over the past four years..." you write. Very odd...

Can't have been here --  you joined here October 26, 2010, 07:18:45 pm

Perhaps you're a former (troublesome??) member now back here under a different name with some sort of agenda. Were you previously banned from here, I wonder?

And please be aware all the Moderators are currently keeping an eye on your posts, as, indeed, we do with all new posters in particular.

Oh my goodness me -- what a surprise.

GIZMOTRON HAS ALSO POSTED THESE EXACT WORDS:

"I know that I have given the mathboyz a lot of disagreement over the past four years.  "

here:   link:://rouletteforum.cc/general-discussion/logic-is-the-bomb!/

What a coincidence.

Now tell me you're not the same individual and I'll gladly change my tablets...

[mr.ore]

Wheel has no memory, game is perfectly random. So why we don't see that? Because probability is so low, that it most most probably won't happen in our lifetime. But it can happen. Do you think we will ever see same numbers in keno or other lottery to be drawn twice in a row? I would bet we won't. It is possible, of course, but practically it does not happen that often. If it is 'almost' certainity it won't happen, we might simplify it to 'it will never happen' (this is false assumption). Because of that, ANY other combination of numbers have 'slightly' higher probability than math dictates (this is not true) and we MIGHT consider those events "dependent". They really are not dependent, but they seems so to us. It is a mirage, fata morgana.

What is a probability to see again same pattern of RB in 32 spins? 0.5^32, and that happens once in 4294967296 32 long spins sessions on average. While it can repeat twice in a row, do you think, you will ever see it? The probability is 0.5^64, so you almost absolutely probably won't see that. Can we base a system on that? I don't know, probably not. Since we are to face table limits, 64 spins long marty or any other EC progression is impossible.

What we really need to know is how to enusure, that we will regularly get a concentration of hits above average in order to play positive progression. Assuming there were limits for how long can pattern not show, we would have to measure all possible patterns and then bet on them appearing. It is not much similar from waiting for a number, and waiting does not work there. Or do you think that if you find a 700 spins sleeper, you will win for SURE in the next 300?

Similar situation can be created artificialy by finding a number that slept in first tracked 200 spins, then another number which slept in another 200 spins, then again, and then any that slept in 100 spins. Now if you bet that pattern, are you sure to hit? No. But had you chosen that pattern as a selection, you would have just cometh through a really bad standard deviation, and your gambling demon inside would be telling you to bet because it is due to hit.

[MrJ]

All you gotta do is ask Iceman to post how he BEATS roulette so we can start testing on it. That usually quiets them down for a while. The beauty of it......if he says NO method is 'decent' enough, thats even better. Then I ask in return......why are you here? Its a win win questioning the guy.

Ken