Progression Tool 2: Need some advice

[FreeRoulette]

Hi all,

I made a progression tool

hxxp: :. loothog. com/Systems/prog. html

However it is limited by allowing you to only select one payout ratio at a time.  I am working on one where you can select multiple payout ratios so I need some advice on what method to use to switch ratios.

Suppose you want to progress in the following order
1.  3 spots on 6:1
2.  1 spot on a 2:1
3.  10 spots on a 35:1

When would you want to switch from a 6:1 to a 2:1 bet?

- set a certain amount per ratio
- set a certain number of spins per ratio
- something other?

Thanks for your input,

FreeRoulette

[MrJ]

This is all personal preference. Meaning....what NET do you want hourly? What is the LOWEST net acceptable before switching to a different payout?

I get emails all the time asking me to help with a progression but thats tough to do cause I dont know what is acceptable to that person. A guy who lives 10 minutes from the casino compared to a guy who has a 3 hours drive, they will both have different ideas as to what is good or not good.

Ken

[FreeRoulette]

Hey Ken,

The exact amount will up to the user to pull their hair out about.  So you said one criteria is net win on a ratio before changing?

Can you define what the net win means in terms of the time you mentioned?

Does this look right?

Net = profit on this progression - (time per spin * spins * value per minute);

[chrisbis]

I would want to move, when U, or the results show that SOMETHING has fell
ASLEEP!

[mr.ore]

You should move to higher payout as soon as you can in order to win at least "minimum profit" in one hit. It is always better to do so, because you expose less of your bankroll to house edge. The calculator is good, math tells us that it is very near optimal method.

You should also add "maximum profit", in order to limit target profit in certain range, thus maximizing short term probability. Also remember, that with enough units you can create "artificial" payouts. With 9 singles, you have (35-8)/9 = 3:1 payout, and you can find similar ones. You can also combine other chances like a dozen and a line inside that dozen to win 7 units while risking 2, It can lose 2, or win 7, or win 1 units - remember, as long as it either wins some or lose some, it should be ok to use. Do not combine chances in such a way that you can break even, it erodes bankroll due to HE.

Another tip - minimum and maximum bets for all options, and for each of them increment. For example 1:1 min. 40 max 2000 increment 10, so you can bet 40, 50, 60, ..., 1980,1990,2000 on even chances.

[FreeRoulette]

Hello,

Thank you for your input. 

The progression tool gives you a win if you hit once during the progression.  So you can keep playing the same progression over and over with a minimum profit target. 

I tried to make a progresssion where you can progess on more than one ratio at once, but it kept failing.  The tool would spin it's wheels looking for a bet that would profit. 

I posted another topic on the tool that includes the link to it

hxxp: :. loothog. com/Systems/prog2. html

Thanks,
FreeRoulette

[mr.ore]

You might have to repeat a bet several times for it to be profitable:
example:

min profit: 1
max profit: 5
   bet            profit  loss
1 unit on  1:1   +1    -1
1 unit on  2:1   +1    -2
1 unit on  5:1   +3    -3
1 unit on  5:1   +2    -4
1 unit on  5:1   +1    -5
1 unit on  8:1   +3    -6
1 unit on  8:1   +2    -7
1 unit on  8:1   +1    -8
1 unit on 11:1   +3    -9
1 unit on 11:1   +2   -10
1 unit on 11:1   +1   -11
2 units on 8:1    +5  -13
1 unit on 17:1   +4   -14
1 unit on 17:1   +3   -15
1 unit on 17:1   +2   -16
1 unit on 17:1   +1   -17
2 units on 11:1  +5  -19
2 units on 11:1  +3  -21
2 units on 11:1  +1  -23
3 units on 8:1    +1  -26
6 units on 5:1    +4  -32
1 unit on 35:1    +3  -33
1 unit on 35:1    +2  -34
1 unit on 35:1    +1  -35
5 units on 8:1     +5  -40
4 units on 11:1    +4  -44

and so on...

There was a need to use different bets in order to stay in 1-5 profit, but it prevented a big change in probability if you start parachuting from split to a single.

[FreeRoulette]

Oh I see what you are doing now. I 'll see what I can do to make that system. Thanks!

[FreeRoulette]

Hello Mr ore,

I started programming your progression method and I had a odd thing happen. I wondered how you would handle it.

Let's suppose your minimum profit is 5.

What happens is that the tool will get to a 35:1 bet and see that the profit is say 20, so it spreads 1 chip across x amount of spots until the profit becomes only 5.

Like in your example here:

1 unit on 11:1   +2   -10
1 unit on 11:1   +1   -11
2 units on 8:1    +5  -13
1 unit on 17:1   +4   -14


Why did you move the bet up to 2 on an 8:1 instead of betting 1 chip on a 17:1?   I'm just not getting the rule on when do you increase the bet on a ratio vs moving the same bet amount to the next  ratio.

Thanks,
FreeRoulette

[mr.ore]

Well, because there is min profit 1 unit and max profit 5 units. If you make a 11:1 bet, then -11+17=6, and that is more than max. profit 5, but it would be ok if max. profit were 6 or more. Always make a bet which will get you into that range with minimum units possible. Also the example might not be perfect, it's just an example, there are situations where it is not consistent, because there were more ways how to get to 1-5 and I not always chosen minimum profit in that range or maximum profit in that range. Choose minimum in your tool. If a bet get you to +2 and another to +3, choose that with +2.

[mr.ore]

Very simple example. It actually does what you want

Code Select Expand


<?php

$option = array(1=>"1:1",2=>"2:1",5=>"5:1",8=>"8:1",11=>"11:1",17=>"17:1",35=>"35:1");
$minBet = array(1=>1,2=>1,5=>1,8=>1,11=>1,17=>1,35=>1);
$maxBet = array(1=>100,2=>100,5=>100,8=>100,11=>100,17=>100,35=>100);


$minProfit = 1;
$maxProfit = 5;
$bankroll = 35;

$minTarget = $bankroll + $minProfit;
$maxTarget = $bankroll + $maxProfit;


while ($bankroll >= 1) {


  $betPayout = 0;
  $betUnits = 0;
  $betTarget = 0;
  $betDesc = "";

  foreach ($option as $payout => $desc) {
    
     for ($units=$minBet[$payout]; $units<=$maxBet[$payout]; $units++) {
$result = $bankroll + $payout*$units;
if ($result>=$minTarget && $result<=$maxTarget) {
  if ($betPayout == 0 || $units < $betUnits) {
            $betUnits = $units;
            $betPayout = $payout;
    $betTarget = $result;
    $betDesc = $desc;
          }
}
     }
    
  }

  if ($betPayout != 0) {
    echo $bankroll.'| bet '.$betUnits.' units on '.$betDesc.' | +'.($betTarget-$minTarget+1)."\n";
    $bankroll -= $betUnits;
  } else {
    break;
  }

}

?>


[mr.ore]

Well, do not choose minimum profit. Choose all bets that get you to range between minimum and maximum profit. Among those select a one which will win with minimum units. This way you minimize impact of house edge on your bet. It is what the example above does.

[FreeRoulette]

Thanks mr.ore,

I coded a routine today, but was having decisions about if to check the ratios first or bet amounts, max spots to min spot, or visa versa..etc

It looks like you go through the bets per ratio. I also tried going through the ratios before upping the bet too and results are different. I'm not sure which is better.

Thanks for the idea.
FreeRoulette

link:://:.loothog.com/Systems/prog3.html

[mr.ore]

You should alway bet as few units as possible to make desired profit, ratio does not matter, use any suitable. Progression would take longer to finish, but overall probability of winning will incerase, although the difference is actually negligible. Minimum and maximum profit are there because roulette have no all needed ratios for optimal bold play.

Optimal bold play in hypthetical negative expectation game - you want to win x units? Bet 1 unit on x:1. In this hypothetical game every ratio is present, and house edge is same for all those bets. So in order to win 1 unit, you bet 1 unit on 1:1, lose, 1 unit on 2:1, lose, 1 unit on 3:1, lose, and so on until win or ruined. In roulette there are not all ratios, so optimal bold play does not exist, only some similar ways of play. If you limit min an max profit, number of ratios you can use increases as long as you do only care for profit be in that range.

Your latest tool is good I think, even if you bet more units than necessary, it would make a difference one in thousand plays if compared to optimal bold play.