Randomness in Bet Selection and/or Number Selection?

[hanshuckebein]

hi bayes,

thanks for your instant reply. :-)

the whole thing is explained in a scientific paper by dr. stephen hu. it's called "a solution to roulette".

I've been trying to get hold of this paper for a long time but never succeeded. it is even listed at amazon.uk, but unfortunately listed as " not available". 

so all I have at the moment is a very brief abstract in german.

it's right here: link:://:.wurfweiten.de/drhu.html

if you don't speak german maybe you could use a webtranslator to get a first impression. if this doesn't work just let me know and give me a little time to translate it. 

cheers

hans

[superman]

48 numbers would seem extreme, as Bayes says, it doesn't matter how much we have against us, heck even heads or tails can produce long bad runs against you and that's a true 50/50 scenario that is capable of killing any progression we choose, like we can get 26 reds/blacks etc we can get 26 heads or 26 tails, randoms a bugger, it's how we financially navigate the bad sectors and profit from the good sectors, that's the target.

[flukey luke]

This is the best I can do.  Now I have to read it and see if it makes any sense.


First a few specifying. Dr. Hu set up not () statements and/or hypotheses which can be proven, but proceeded first from the fact that the EC-combinations are not evenly distributed. Everyone can e.g. see that there are more odd red numbers (10) as odd black ( - and that this number it is still different from the number of most other combinations such as straight lines/Manque or red/passport (9).

From this Hu has then the correct conclusion derived that the disbursement distribution with these EC-combinations are not alike - particularly that with some the probability for an undecided is larger (he occupies also computationally with the 4 basic operations of arithmetic, for everyone comprehensibly - thus also for some members of this forum).


If however the disbursement distribution for different EC-combinations are different, although the probabilities are equal to the individual EC and although mathematical expectation for all EC-combinations have the same (negative) value, then one has play-theoretically another play to be present than a symmetrical, with which thus all EC-combinations are equivalent probable.


From this Hu (correct) closed that it is strategically more favorable in certain situations, these before those EC-combinations to prefer further (e.g. those with the largest probability for an undecided), because that affects the total fluctuation of the play capital - and thus " Ãœberlebenswahrscheinlichkeit". In a further step Hu concludes (likewise correct):

If there are due to EC-combination-unbalances differences regarding the strategic possibilities (and it gives), then must it also compellingly to strategies give, which are relatively favourable for the player (and accordingly unfavorably for the casino).



And it builds also a bridge from the EC-combination-unbalance to the unbalance of the distributions of the different EC-combinations in the boiler. (Caution here: It does not go out of the given distribution unbalance in the boiler, like we all this already once considered.) Incidental remark: Hu shows the also following:

[hanshuckebein]

thanks luke,

I guess, I'd better translate it manually for you guys. 

[flukey luke]

I am looking forward to your translation hans.

Here is something to throw into the pot if you believe you can get an advantage playing some kind of perceived inbalance.

I will refer to the following as 2B. (Second dozen, Column B.)

     2
     5
     8
    11
13 14 15
16 17 18
19 20 21
22 23 24
    26
    29
    32
    35

Out of the other 16 numbers, 10 are RED and only 6 are BLACK.
So if the next spin moves away from 2B to either 1A, 1C, 3A or 3C, you could argue that you will be more likely to see a RED number than a BLACK number.

Now let's look at 2C. (Second dozen, Column C.)

          3
          6
          9
         12
13 14 15
16 17 18
19 20 21
22 23 24
        27
        30
        33
        36

Out of the other 16 numbers, 10 are BLACK and only 6 are RED.
So if the next spin moves away from 2C to either 1A, 1B, 3A or 3B, you could argue that you will be more likely to see a BLACK number.

Can this be of any of help to anybody?

[hanshuckebein]

there you go.

in case my translation contains any grammar or writing mistakes, please be kind and just ignore them. 

cheers

hans

[flukey luke]

thank you very much Hans.

[hanshuckebein]

@luke

I guess the examples you gave show the direction the whole search could go.

there a qiuete a few ways to use the imbalances. wether a steady winner could be created this way has still to be discussed. 

cheers

hans

[flukey luke]

  Hello Hans,


Here are 250 numbers I downloaded.

11 28 30 3 14 2B 7 1A (so it changed to a different DOZEN + COLUMN. And the dominant RED came)+1. 28 6 6 22 7 7 3 19 35 16 15 2C 22 2A (It stayed in the same DOZEN. We got lucky however and hit the BLACK)+2. 18 2C 34 3A (changed to different DOZEN + COLUMN. We lost on the RED)+1. 9 30 32 19 3 25 17 2B 14 2B (stayed in same DOZEN + COLUMN. We got lucky and hit the RED)+2. 15 2C (It stayed in the same DOZEN. We lost on the BLACK)+1. 22 2A (It stayed in the same DOZEN. We got lucky and hit the BLACK)+2. 21 2C 36 3C (It stayed in the same DOZEN. We lost on the RED)+1. 30 22 31 7 7 32 29 13 33 30 5 6 35 36 33 7 19 32 29 9 0 16 29 27 19 6 5 12 18 2C 2 1B (Changed to different COLUMN + DOZEN. The dominant BLACK came)+2. 12 31 11 9 3 19 18 2C 25 3A (Changed to different COLUMN + DOZEN. We lost on the RED)+1. 14 2B 1 1A (Changed to different COLUMN + DOZEN. The dominant RED came)+2. 8 26 22 5 29 31 25 23 2B 24 2C (It stayed in the same DOZEN. We lost on the BLACK)+1. 27 3C (It stayed in the same COLUMN. We lost on the RED) level. 4 17 2B 31 3A (Changed to different COLUMN + DOZEN. We lost on the BLACK)-1. 12 19 3 18 2C 33 3C (It stayed in the same COLUMN. We got lucky and hit the BLACK) level. 33 3 16 15 2C 15 2C (Stayed in same DOZEN + COLUMN. We got lucky and hit the BLACK)+1. 31 3A (Changed to different COLUMN + DOZEN. We hit the dominant BLACK)+2. 16 25 34 17 2B 18 2C (It stayed in the same DOZEN. We got lucky and hit the RED)+3. 12 1C (It stayed in the same COLUMN. We lost on the RED)+2. 13 9 4 24 2C 25 3A (Changed to different COLUMN + DOZEN. We lost on the RED)+1. 8 15 2C 34 3A (Changed to different COLUMN + DOZEN. We lost on the RED) level. 22 14 2B 29 3B (It stayed in the same COLUMN. We lost on the BLACK)-1. 4 17 2B 4 1A (changed to different COLUMN + DOZEN. We lost on the BLACK)-2. 5 20 2B 28 3A (Changed to different COLUMN + DOZEN. We lost on the BLACK)-3. 0 1 21 2C 21 2C (Stayed in same DOZEN + COLUMN. We lost on the RED)-4. 26 3B (Changed to different COLUMN + DOZEN. We won on the dominant BLACK)-3. 7 14 2B 9 1C (Changed to different COLUMN + DOZEN. We won on the dominant RED)-2. 35 25 4 0 24 2C 33 3C (Stayed in the same COLUMN. We got lucky and won on the BLACK)-1. 32 29 14 2B 17 2B (Stayed in same DOZEN + COLUMN. We lost on the BLACK)-2. 19 2A (Stayed in the same DOZEN. We got lucky and won on the RED)-1. 24 2C 16 2A (Stayed in the same DOZEN. We lost on the RED)-2. 10 6 28 24 2C 10 1A (Changed to different COLUMN + DOZEN. We won on the dominant BLACK)-1. 1 18 2C 30 3C (It stayed in the same COLUMN. We lost on the RED)-2. 5 6 31 8 13 29 33 11 28 33 26 13 19 31 18 2C 8 1B (Changed to different COLUMN + DOZEN. We won on the dominant BLACK)-1. 12 16 19 8 32 17 2B 28 3A (Changed to different COLUMN + DOZEN. We lost on the BLACK)-2. 1 34 3 9 26 19 32 24 2C 30 3C (It stayed in the same COLUMN. We lost on the RED)-3. 32 0 34 20 2B 27 3C (Changed to different COLUMN + DOZEN. We won on the dominant RED)-2. 22 35 0 4 22 9 4 34 35 34 14 2B 4 1A (Changed to different COLUMN + DOZEN. We lost on the BLACK)-3. 10 19 14 2B 27 3C (Changed to different COLUMN + DOZEN. We won on the RED)-2. 3 1 35 26 14 2B 32 3B (Stayed in the same COLUMN. We got lucky and hit the RED)-1. 23 2B 28 3A (Changed to different COLUMN + DOZEN. We lost on the BLACK)-2. 31 8 31 12 6 33 9 33 14 2B 7 1A (Changed to different COLUMN + DOZEN. We won on the dominant RED)-1. 27 32 12 2 16 23 2B 36 3C (Changed to different COLUMN + DOZEN. We won on the dominant RED) level. 9 9 33 10 5 36 4 22 34 23 2B 18 2C (Stayed in the same DOZEN. We got lucky and won on the RED)+1. 14 2B (Stayed in the same DOZEN. We lost on the RED)level. 9 1C (Changed to different COLUMN + DOZEN. We won on the dominant RED)+1. 5 0 10 3 26 30 19 22 3 27 31 So let's have a look at what happened. It changed to a different COLUMN + DOZEN 23 times. We won 13 out of those 23. Slightly below the average. I think there is nothing to be gained here to be honest. Maybe someone else has some ideas. cheers