Bet selection for static number labby

[GLC]

Here's a bet selection method that works well with my Static Number Labby bet method posted under Money Management section.


Actually, this selection method will work as well as any and better than most even chance bet selection methods.  You don't believe it.  Prove me wrong!



This is based on the fact that in 1000 spins there should be 500 singles and 500 multiples (ignoring zero of course).  In other words there should be 500 chops and 500 streaks.


Example: RBRBRBRBRB is an example of singles.  There should be 500 of these singles on average in 1000 spins.


Example: RRBBBRRRBBRRRRRBBBBBBB is an example of multiples or streaks.  There should be 500 of these in our 1000 spins.  These are made up of 2 or more in a row of an even chance.


The reason is that if we have B, the next spin will be either another B for a streak or a Red for a chop or single.  The odds of either of these is 50/50.  Therefore, half will be singles and half will be multiples.


We are going to track for 20 spins and then we can start betting.  We will  keep track of 2 numbers.  The number of singles and the number of multiples.  Any time one side or the other gets behind statistically, we will bet that it will start to catch up. 


We will determine this using a very simple equation.  We will divide the number of spins by 2 and then add the first number to the result.  If either side has this many wins or more, we will bet on the other side because it is getting behind.


Example:  We start with 20.  20 divided by 2 = 10.  10 + 2 (2 is the first number in 20) = 12.  If either singles or streaks have 12 or more occurrences, we will bet on the other one.


Example:  We have had 60 decisions.  60 divided by 2 = 30 + 6 = 36.  If we have 36 or more singles, we will start betting on streaks because the streaks are getting to far behind and should start to catch up.


Example:  We have had 90 decisions.  90 divided by 2 = 45 + 9 = 54.  If we have 54 or more streaks or multiples, we will start betting on singles or chops to catch up.


Using the last example of 90 decisions, if neither side has 54 or more occurrences, then we don't have a bet.  In other words, if there isn't enough deviation for the norm, then we don't bet. 


There is no limit to the number of decisions you use to determine which side to bet on.  If you have 200 decisions, your number is 200 divided by 2 = 100 + 20 = 120.  If there have been 120 or more singles or streaks, bet on the other to catch up.


This formula represents a 60/40 win/loss ratio which is pretty big.  If you want, you can get more bets by taking the number of decisions divided by 2 plus half the first number.


Example:  80 decisions divided by 2 = 40 + (8/2=4) = 44.  In this case we have gone from 60/40 to 55/45 to get more bets.  60/40 is safer and the one I prefer.


Like I said, this works well with almost any bet progression, but for sure it works with the static number labby.


It should also work well with Fripper's labby method presented in "Beating roulette with math" topic.


You can track for more than 20 spins before starting to bet if you feel that 20 isn't a large enough sample to determine a reasonable deviation.


Try this method and see how you like it.


GLC

[Optimist]

Very interesting. I think it is for RNG more suitable.

This formula represents a 60/40 win/loss ratio which is pretty big.  If you want, you can get more bets by taking the number of decisions divided by 2 plus half the first number.

GLC

Have you achieved 60/40 in tests?

Thx.

DL

[Optimist]

Hmm...

How you calculate chops? Because I am getting streaks/chops ratio 2/1.

I increase chops count when there is isolated R or B  (I mean BRB or RBR).

The streaks count increase with each RR or BB.

Do you track the differently? Do you increase chop count with every color change?

Thanks

DL

[Nathanael]

Hmm...

How you calculate chops? Because I am getting streaks/chops ratio 2/1.

I increase chops count when there is isolated R or B  (I mean BRB or RBR).

The streaks count increase with each RR or BB.

Do you track the differently? Do you increase chop count with every color change?

Thanks

DL

I think I help.
RRR   2 streak
RBR   2 chop
RRBRR   1 streak/ 2 chop/ 1 streak
RBBBR   1 chop/ 2 streak/ 1 chop

Forgive me if wrong

Nate

[GLC]

Very interesting. I think it is for RNG more suitable.

Have you achieved 60/40 in tests?

thanks.

DL

Optimist brings us a good point.  Betting opportunities are not too common if you use larger numbers.  I would keep the pool of numbers used to decide how to bet at 40.  The larger the number, the less likely there is to be an imbalance larger enough to trigger a betting opportunity.

40 divided by 2 = 20 + 2 = 22 vs 18.  If you use a larger number of spins for you decision, you should for sure use the 45/55 formula.  100 divided by 2 = 50 plus half of 10 = 55 vs 45.

[Nathanael]

Optimist brings us a good point.  Betting opportunities are not too common if you use larger numbers.  I would keep the pool of numbers used to decide how to bet at 40.  The larger the number, the less likely there is to be an imbalance larger enough to trigger a betting opportunity.

40 divided by 2 = 20 + 2 = 22 vs 18.  If you use a larger number of spins for you decision, you should for sure use the 45/55 formula.  100 divided by 2 = 50 plus half of 10 = 55 vs 45.

Since GLC is not posting, I think this formula is more reasonable.

Number of decisions divided by 2 plus 10% of the result = minimum deviation for betting.

40 divided by 2 = 20 + 10% = 20 + 2 = 22 vs 18.
50 divided by 2 = 25 + 10% = 25 + 2.5 = 27.5 rounded up = 28 vs 22
70 divided by 2 = 35 + 10% = 35 + 3.5 = 38.5 rounded up = 39 vs 31
30/2=15+1.5=16.5=17 vs 13 

30 should be the smallest number of decisions tracked before start betting.
Below 30, formula doesn't work well.

Nate