new ways of thinking

[birdhands]

@Mr. Ore, I just spent an hour reading through that PDF and my head is really spinning.  If there's any way you could translate that for non-mathematicians I would be interested.  For instance, what are the basic assertions?  What is their working hypothesis?

[XXVV]

@Mr Ore


Developing a methodology that followed a trend in roulette and with results which had better than a 47% error rate would be easier than working within the complex random financial markets where random is usually not beaten or even understood.


In fact the whole notion of 'beating' random is spurious.


Random variation within casino games is capped for practical purposes and in roulette, in which we specialise,  the random variations are observed on specific bets quite happily by means of heuristic observation.


Given that we understand our bet and the characteristics of the bet we can work with relatively simple and calm precision to quite reasonably achieve 'consistent enough' success.


By 'consistent enough' I mean small gains in short cycles.


Such results can have their success amplified by astute money management.


I dont think roulette has to be over complicated by import of models that are transferred from very complex and very random markets which are often poorly understood ( please refer Nassim Taleb's works). I dont find a 47% or at best 40% error rate particularly inspiring and it certainly would not do for my own work.


As noted succinctly by Bayes recently, we can be grateful for the fixed parameters around casino games, and where the social  misunderstanding of 'gambling' in such places camouflages to our advantage, the opportunities therein.

[birdhands]

As noted succinctly by Bayes recently, we can be grateful for the fixed parameters around casino games, and where the social  misunderstanding of 'gambling' in such places camouflages to our advantage, the opportunities therein.

Well said.

[GARNabby]

Developing a methodology that followed a trend in roulette and with results which had better than a 47% error rate would be easier than working within the complex random financial markets where random is usually not beaten or even understood.

Overcoming randomness still won't help you with the stock-markets, which aren't random.  As with roulette, it's the big players who consistently come out ahead.  And aren't the banks a lot like the casinos, on many levels?

And yes, they do a rather good job of "camouflaging" themselves under their veils of "good-intentioned" authority.  To the point that the "little guys" want to ever such perpetuate their stereotypically pecuniary life-styles.  I wonder if those "executives" stop to think either, what difference is it really going to make, that additional million, or two, a year of which they've become too-greedy to ever spend; as the poor guy who "gets hot" one night ends up even further in debt than before. 

[XXVV]

Thanks Garnabby.  It is fascinating however ' the tilt ' you have put upon this context.


#1.  Its pretty fundamental but wherever did you think that market behaviour was not random? Unexpected events can bring about the most extraordinary outcomes to perplex us all. Are you prepared to comment upon the likely state of the Footsie. and your super-fund status given the most probable defaults ahead within Europe, notably Greece. Portugal, Spain and Italy. Who would have thought this year Iceland's economy would be the most booming in Europe after what happened in 2008? Yet can you make sense of what the Finance Minister of that troublesome volcanic island has to say? There is little rational control over these vagaries.


#2. Flawed also is your comment regarding the 'big players consistently coming out ahead'. By what standard or research do you make such an assertion. Small wins add and can be compounded without attention. Why do you disregard such strategies. Big winners can be big losers tomorrow. Small losses are much easier to manage.


The camouflage that is referred to is of course that of the smart 'small win' player, but of course that is all relative and depends on context. Casinos Austria based in Vienna have a remarkably enlightened attitude to 'big' winners and on some tables in private rooms have no table limits. A win of 100,000 EUR would not be a problem but can you imagine the local small private provincial casino handling that? You would be crazy to expose yourself to such attention.


Casinos Austria prosper because they understand the risk: reward ratios. More often than not they will recover the big payouts, with interest.


What I refer to is modest, 'small' but frequent wins, that can be privately compounded through astute management. It is not complex and need not draw attention.


The 'new ways of thinking' are intended to demonstrate that the casinos are actually better controlled, policed, and handled than the financial markets which periodically go into unpredictable behaviour because of the wider range of random extremes from the 'real world' to which they are exposed. Casinos are protected from such. Thus we are welcomed as long as we act appropriately.


The professional behaviour, knowledge and skill to which I constantly refer is the antithesis of the wretched 'gambler' 'poor guy' to which you refer. That is so what not to do.


This will be my last post for a while as I am about to embark on a several month international campaign of professional casino play.


Hopefully will add to the New Ideas in several weeks.


Good Hunting XXVV

[Bayes]

Overcoming randomness still won't help you with the stock-markets, which aren't random.

I disagree. There have been quite a few studies on this, and although there are disagreements among "experts", the evidence seems to point to markets largely following a random walk. This is only anecdotal evidence, but interesting nonetheless, especially if you're considering paying for the services of a financial expert.

[XXVV]

Recent business amongst the EQ activity in Christchurch, New Zealand has introduced me to some remarkable people who are looking at making this city a very special place. It has the opportunity to re-build in new ways on all levels.
Over the next few months while working here I will illustrate some of these ideas but first, after listening to the famous Australian Entrepreneur Dick Smith, and now reading Richard Branson's thoughts after he visited here recently, the warning bells are ringing for a fresh look at business and a fresh look at money.
Consider the work of Nobel Peace Prize winner Muhammad Yunus and the famous Grameen Bank, the fore runner of the wave of micro banking now heading our way.
Grameen means village, and on a market level we can choose to be faceless and abstract like Wall Street, or instead like the traditional markets meet face to face to conduct business, social business, and buy/ sell food and trade with one another to assist one another on all levels.

There are other options than the supermarket and it seems the pendulum is now swinging to enable more of our true and finer human qualities to come to the fore in social business, as a parallel to just money making business. See the rise of the farmers markets. They work on many levels.
We can choose to invest in the social stock market where values and causes rate higher than just profit alone.
There is a period of change coming where many old ways will be added to, to enrich life for all. Sometimes it takes a disaster to provide the opportunity for change. Also we may need to 'head north' in order to travel south. Refer to :.slowmoney.org and :.worldofpossibilities.org
Just so we can look at our areas of interest with fresh eyes and see new ways of thinking.
It may also be necessary to slow down in order to improve our quality of life. Choices in extreme can be white noise.
More soon. Best XXVV

[XXVV]

Several posts have been removed because they zoned into an area well covered in other sections of this forum. The intention of this thread is to explore in a very broad sense new ways of thinking which may or may not impact upon professional roulette play. Hence references to Economics and new Banking models as well as Business that goes beyond simple making money for its own sake.
In a constantly expanding market it is easy to make money. Not so in a changing world scene where a wider range of human values and skills can and need to be applied. Questions are arising as to the validity of current economic and business models, as growth as previously known may stall.
Such refreshing thinking and changing vistas on the global scale can be applied to the micro study of business and perhaps even to the way we approach the casinos as places of money exchange. Instead of motivation by greed, other values may offer a wiser clarity of thinking to enable new ways of re-distribution of wealth in society. As we have earlier stated, casinos actually provide a haven of relatively fixed range of variables, easier to deal with than the open ended financial and derivative markets which can host catastrophic loss.
It is not easy to relatively consistently win at the casino but with a fresh approach that throws out previous misapprehensions, then anything is possible given the right knowledge, attitude and application.
That is the challenge I set myself.
Please do not take offence to removal of some posts but it is the editor who is looking to thread a pathway through the woods.
Best
XXVV

[trebor]

Gizmotron: I think is was Victor who gave thread originators the option of deleting posts, I'm sure just to keep threads on track.
I get no feeling that your posts have been deleted for any other reason.
I suppose the answer is if you want to share your knowledge start a thread. I'm sure it will be appreciated by many of us.

Robert

[MrJ]

For the record, I deleted nothing.

Ken

[superman]

Enough said in this thread. Perhaps I'll find another thread where it applies

I hope so, maybe you could start your own thread and post it there, you will then have the power to remove what you want as thread starter, if Trebor and Bayes didn't understand it I probably wont either, depends how criptic you make it I guess, still, I look fowrad to it Gizmotron.

[XXVV]

My apologies in deleting any material, and there is nothing personal in this, and in fact I may have been in error in taking that action. As my own Editor I took the view that the subject of short term trends is fundamental in dealing with randomness but that the offering added nothing new to what had earlier been stated by others and probably more clearly.
There is no big secret to this subject. It is a phenomenon of natural randomness that short sequences can be detected where a pattern can be perceived, and we grasp at this like straws, sometimes successfully. John Patrick writes on the subject of short trends quite well.
With recent EQ events where I am currently located geo-physicists also grasping at straws and holding a torch in the darkness suggest a pattern in recent random events, despite the fact that earlier range predictions have been shown incorrect. It is made wise by being after the event.
So apologies to those writers who feel cheated or betrayed or persecuted. Feel free to make new offerings to New Ways of Thinking. perhaps the editor might be a little wiser now.

Best XXVV

[amk]

Hello again XXVV,

A profound thread. Lots to think about.

I just came across a very interesting thread, at least in my eyes, which I feel could contribute.........

link:://rouletteforum.cc/index.php?topic=7969.0

You are probably already aware of this approach but felt it might be useful to help demonstrate how to recognize advantages moments for entering a betting cycle based on the cyclical nature of "randomness". Feel free to delete this post if it doesn't flow well

Thanks again for sharing your insights.

[woods101]

Hi Amk,

I don't think this idea works personally. See my response to the above mentioned topic. Having said that - in response to the short trends thing - I agree it can be profitable, but the runs/changes thing to me is the same as R/B or H/L etc.

Woods

[XXVV]

Please refer to Advanced Roulette writing by John Patrick and others.
Essence of successful play in roulette is hopping on and then off short trends.
....same as 'hot or very warm numbers - same principle. Timing of entry and exit is essential.

In my thread on Experimental Ideas I also refer to a reverse bet which has a postive edge because it reverses a losing bet. Timing there is also essentail because even with a + edge you can still lose from time to time but by applying moving averages to help timing you improve efficiency by 30% !!
XXVV