Very controlled Progression for Even Chances

[GLC]

I was reading about a bet method on a published system for a different game and it seems to be worth trying on roulette.  Especially for you lucky punters that have access to non-zero roulette.  Or even single zero with la partage.


The bet selection is your choice.


This bet method is based on Oscar's Grind.  That is, we increase our bet amount after a win and we keep it the same after a loss.


We have to keep track of 3 numbers.  Units Lost, current bet size and a running total to be able to know when we've reached our win target.  Losses starts out as 0, bet size starts out as 1 and of course running total starts out at zero.


Every time we lose we increase Losses by the amount lost and the bet amount remains unchanged.


Every time we win we increase the bet amount by 1 unit and we decrease Losses by the amount won.


Every time we lose 2 times in a row, we stop betting until we have a virtual win then we start betting for real at the unit amount of the last bet we made. 


This is a means of trying to prevent large streaks of losses from wiping us out.  It is off-set by the reality that we may skip wins and come back to play and catch 2 more losses.  If we do this once that's 4 losses in a row, and twice is 6 losses in a row.  But all in all I think stopping after 2 losses and waiting for the losing streak to end is a safer idea.


The only reason we keep track of losses is that we have a chart that comes into play after we've won 2 times in a row.  This tells us what to bet based on how many units we are down.  Using this chart is entirely optional.


Units down        Bet Amount
1-3                          1
4-6                          2
7-9                          3
10 or more              4


This chart accomplishes 2 things.  First, it causes us to increase our bet size more rapidly if we just had a long stretch of losses and it lets us reduce our bet size if we're betting larger units but have recovered most or all of our losses.


4 units is the largest bet we will be making and if we lose a 4 unit bet, we end that attack and re-set losses to 0 and bet size to 1.


I also suggest that you  re-set any time you reach a new high bank amount.


That's the basic skeleton of the bet method.  It can be adjusted to suit your personal preferences.


For example you can make a losing bet of 5 or 6 the stop-loss target.


The original version has us adding an extra unit to the losses number for every loss.  This gives us some guaranteed profit if we get back to zero.  I didn't include this factor because it's just as easy to keep track of our total and make decisions accordingly.




Some observations:


This is a very controlled bet method.  It keeps the bets from escalating too high by ending the game on a 4 unit lost bet.  This is a very important part of the method.  Every bet selection will have periodic losing streaks.  We either need to be prepared to bet a long progression, risking large numbers of units to try and stop a loss or we need to be willing to take small losses more often to keep from having to use a long expensive progression.


The above paragraph is in red because it's the reality of most gambling systems.  It has to be come to grips with if you intend to stay sane playing this game.  I'm not say that a long progression is dumb, I'm just saying that if you use it, you have to be aware of the pitfalls and be willing to take a really big hit every now and then.  Also, it takes a lot of guts to place the larger bet amounts so, "Know thyself" before you try to play using a steep progression.


That's the method in a nutshell.  Use it if you like it,


GLC

[GLC]

Regarding the above presentation, please note that if you reset at +1, you don't have to keep track of the running total because, since you will keep track of losses, you will either be down the amount of your losses or you will have hit +1 and reset.

[GLC]

I have been testing this with my find the dominant even chance method for a very effective method.


When you walk up to the table, either pick the color that hit 5 times in a row most recently if one is still showing on the marquee.  If not you may have to wait until one of the colors hits 5 times in a row.


If you are tracking for the color to hit 5 times in a row, wait until it switches colors before betting.  Let's say we get 5 blacks in a row.  We wait to see if more blacks are going to hit or not.  As soon as a Red appears, we start betting on Black.


We bet on Black until we have 2 Reds in a row.  We stop betting and play virtual until a Red hits.  Then we pick up where we left off betting on Black.  Every time we get 2 Reds in a row, we stop betting and wait for the Reds to stop hitting and then we resume betting for Black.


If we get 5 Reds in a row, we switch to playing Red instead of Black.  We wait until the streak of 5 or more Reds ends with a Black and then we start betting on Red.  Always bet on our color until we get 2 losses in a row then wait for a virtual win and resume betting on our color.




Simple to track and as effective as anything else.


GLC

[GLC]

I'm going to present a minor tweak to this progression.

Use any even chance bet selection method you like.  Or for simplicity, just pick one of the even chances, such as Red and play Red only.  Or if it makes you mad if you happen to pick the wrong color, play follow-the-last.  That way you'll catch all steaks of either color.  What you won't like is RBRBRBRBRBRBR.  But, there's no selection process that doesn't have a killer sequence.

The bet progression is what I'm presenting here.
We will increase our bet size after 2 wins and we'll stay the same after a loss.  The 2 wins don't have to be in a row and it doesn't matter how many losses are between them.

This is a possible sequence:
-1-1-1+1-1-1+1-2-2+2+2-3-3-3+3-3+3+4+4-4 = -5

Here's a winning sequence:
+1-1-1+1+2+2-3+3+3-4 = +3

4 units is the largest bet we make.
We play until we lose on a 4 unit bet. 
We can win many 4 bets but when we lose a 4 unit bet we end the attack plus or minus.

Cheers,

GLC

[GLC]

I am tightening up my rules for playing this system.  I have changed the "Chart". 

For all of you who have any respect for anything I write, I'm encouraging you to look at this more closely. 

I suggest this because it is a very solid bet method that gives enough wiggle room to win some units without ever risking too much at one time.

I suggest a  40 unit buy-in and a 10 unit win target.  As you play it you can adjust these to suit yourself.

I will suggest a bet selection method but you can use any even chance method you like.

1.  RBRBRBRB etc...  Just alternate continuously.  This will keep from having long losing stretches most of the time.  The rule in the system of ending real betting after 2 losses in a row and then only resuming real betting after a win works well in conjunction with this bet method.

We have to keep track of 3 numbers.
 
Units Lost
Current bet size
Running total. 

Losses start out as 0, bet size starts as 1.


Every time we lose we increase Losses by the amount lost and the bet amount remains unchanged.


Every time we win we increase the bet amount by 1 unit and we decrease Losses by the amount won.


Every time we lose 2 times in a row, we stop betting until we have a virtual win then we start betting again. 


The only reason we keep track of losses is that we have a chart that comes into play after we've won 2 times in a row.  This tells us what to bet based on how many units we are down.


Units down        Bet Amount
1-2                          1
3-4                          2
5-6                          3
7-8                          4
9 or more                5*

You continue to bet based on the chart as long as you are winning or until you reach 0, 1.

As soon as you lose a bet from the chart, you go back to the normal betting rules.

This chart accomplishes 2 things.  First, it causes us to increase our bet size more rapidly if we just had a long stretch of losses and it lets us reduce our bet size if we're betting larger units but have recovered most or all of our losses.

*Note:  This is the only time we will ever bet 5 units.  It's when we have won 2 times in a row and we go to the chart and we're down 9 units or more, then and only then can we bet 5 units.  Never more than 5 units.  Any time we lose a 5 unit bet we end the session and take our loss.

4 units is the largest bet we will make other then the 5 unit bet when using the chart.  If we lose a 4 unit bet, we also end that attack and re-set losses to 0 and bet size to 1.


Re-set everything any time you reach a new profit.  That will be when the running total = +1.


GLC

You can stop looking for a better even chance system.  There are none.  There may be others as good, but none better.

You can be fooled by long progressions, but they are just smoke and mirrors.

In the end, the closer you stay to a flat bet, the better off you're going to be.

That's my final word. 

For now anyway.

Good Luck to all,

GLC

[Tomla021]

pretty good stuff george, I tried it on paper today with the dominant of last 3----ended up 20 units in 100 spins

[GLC]

pretty good stuff george, I tried it on paper today with the dominant of last 3----ended up 20 units in 100 spins

Tom,

I'm thinking this is as good as it gets.  Especially for baccarat where you have to bet large units.
It can be dialed back to limit the size of our bets even more.  We can say that under normal betting when we lose a 3 unit bet we have to reset.  That would mean on the chart we'd have to drop the line for the 5 unit bet and say that any drawdown over 7 units results in a 4 unit bet.  Any loss on the 4 unit bet causes a termination and overall reset.

When we're betting from the chart, as long as we win we stay with the chart.  If we lose at either 3 or 4 unit bets, this ends the attack, reset.  If we win and the chart tell us to bet 2 units and we lose, then we go back to our progression line.

I have been having very good results using the alternating bet selection process.  The only thing that kills it is to be on the losing side of chops.  In this case the stop after 2 losses until a win to resume betting helps stabilize the system.

I'm always trying to tweak it to be better.  It actually does well if we go to the chart after every win instead of waiting for 2 wins in a row.  Also using the chart after 2 wins but not necessarily in a row works also.

When you test a session, check and see if alternating R/B or B/P does as well, worse or better than the bet selection you used.  Also, see if one of the options sending us to the chart more frequently helps any.

Or, don't mess with it at all.  It works fine as is!  I just need to leave well enough alone.

GLC

[Tomla021]

played some for fun blackjack with this tonight---very impressed if this holds out,, even lost a session but ended up on the whole

[GLC]

played some for fun blackjack with this tonight---very impressed if this holds out,, even lost a session but ended up on the whole

I didn't think about Blackjack, but hey, any even chance should work even pass/don't pass.

The best thing about Blackjack is that you don't have to pick between Red or Black or Bank or Player.  The worst thing about Blackjack is that you lose more hands per 100 than in roulette or baccarat.  That's helped somewhat by the double downs, splits and blackjacks that make up 1.5 - 2 wins each.

[Big EZ]

Just for clarification so I know if I am looking at this right.....


Are you still betting until losing 2 in a row and then waiting for a win to come back in


                or Is it

We will increase our bet size after 2 wins and we'll stay the same after a loss.  The 2 wins don't have to be in a row and it doesn't matter how many losses are between them.
4 units is the largest bet we make.
We play until we lose on a 4 unit bet. 
We can win many 4 bets but when we lose a 4 unit bet we end the attack plus or minus.

so the way I am understanding is you are not stopping any longer after 2 losses in a row and then waiting for a virtual win to get back in. Instead you are just playing it through even if there is 3 or more losses in a row.


Am I understanding this right or are you still implementing the after 2 losses wait for a virtual win part

[GLC]

I'm sorry BigEZ.  I should have made it clear that this new tweak takes precedence over any previous posts.

In this final version we do stop betting after 2 losses and resume betting after a virtual win.

GLC

[GLC]

That post from Jan 14 eliminated the use of the Chart.  I have re-read it and it is confusing.  If you want to play that way, you still stop betting for real money after 2 losses and resume betting after a win.

I prefer the most recent version of the system to the previous versions.

I'm not adament about the bet selection, althought I really like it a lot.  It's probably not any better than betting RRBBRRBBRRBBRRBB etc...  Or even the author's method of Same Opposite Same Opposite the last color to spin.  All 3 of these bet selection methods have 1 main killer sequence.

I am trying to trim down my maximum bet size drastically to make my even chance systems more playable for those of us who don't have access to games with small minimums or big minimum/maximum spreads.

[Big EZ]

Can you run through this shoe with whatever bet selection you choose and show me an example please, if you could just play until your win goal of +10 I would appreciate having a visual example. I am having a hard time understanding, always seems to happen with the "simple" things 




P-P-B-P-P-P-T-P-B-P-B-P-P-P-B-T-P-B-B-P-B-P-P-P-B-B-P-P-P-P-B-B-B-T-T-B-B-P-T-B-B-P-P-B-P-P-B-B-P-B-T-B-P-T-B-B-B-P-P-P-P-P-T-B-P-B-P-B-P




Thanks Buddy, look forward to seeing how its done so I can get a better understanding.

[GLC]

Hand     Bet       Loss to date     Bet Amt     W/L        Total
P            P               0                      1              W           +1   Reset
P            B              1                      1               L             -1
B           P               2                      1               L             -2  2 losses in a row, go virtual
P           B                                                      VL
P           P                                                      VW                    Next bet for real
P          B               3                       1               L             -3
P          P               2                       1               W            -2
B         B               0                       2               W              0   Not  + yet but 2 wins in a row
P         P                0                        2               W             +2  Used chart for bet size
B        B               0                        1                W             +1  Reset
P         P               0                        1                W             +1  Reset
P         B               1                       1                 L               -1
P         P               0                        1                W               0
B        B               0                        1                W               +1  Reset
B        P                1                       1                 L                -1
P        B                2                       1                 L               -2   Go virtual after 2 losses
B        P                                                          VL
P        B                                                          VL
P        P                                                          VW
P        B                3                        1                 L                 -3
B       P                 4                        1                 L                  -4
B       B                                                           VW
P       P                 3                        1                  W                -3
P       B                6                         2                  L                 -5
P       P                4                         2                  W                -3
P       B                7                         3                   L                 -6
B       P                9                         3                   L                 -9
B       B                                                             VW
B       P               12                        3                   L                  -12
B       B               9                         3                   W                 -9
B       P               13                       4                    L                  -13
At this point I end the game at -13 because I lost a 4 unit bet.

I would also take a short break or call it a day depending on how many attacks I have played.  You have to decide how many attacks you want to do in a day.

It's late so I may have made a mistake, I don't think so, but if you can find any it will be good because it will mean you understand the mechanics. 

[Big EZ]

Thanks for posting this up....I am going to look it over to make sure I understand it...Really appreciate it