"IS EVERY ROULETTE SPIN NEW?"

Marigny de Grilleau

Translated from

"The gain of one unit on the even money chances at Roulette and Trente et Quarante"

One can hear that question in every casino everyday.

The word "new" means according to the definition "which one yet did not see".

In this sense each day is a new day.

It is quite obvious that people asking this question do not realy mean "new" to express this natural truth.

Their questions is badly formulated and surely they mean "new" in the sense of independent.

Thus they wanted to ask whether each spin is independent of the others, the previous or following spins.

The above question should be asked as follows: " Are all appearances and are all spins independent?" In this formulation no wordplay and no wrong interpretations are possible.

Grilleau does not hesitate with a clear answer: "No, neither the appearances nor the spins can be independent, because everyone of them is a part of the whole. This whole is arranged and limited in all its movements and is subject to precise laws."

Each spin, while the ball turns in the wheel, carries in itself a certain quantity of independence and a certain quantity of dependence.

The independence results from the following:

every time the dealer rolls the ball, it is faced with 18 red and 18 black, 18 even and 18 odd as well as 18 high and 18 low pockets. Therefore the ball has the same chance to fall in one of the 36 pockets (we do not consider zero or doublezero this time) since each pocket indicates Red or Black, Even or Odd, High or Low at the same time.

The dependence results from

1. the Law of Deviation (Ecart),

2. the Law of Balance (Equilibrium)and

3. the law of the distribution of appearances into different accumulations or clusters and isolated units

Thus the mathematical truth of the independence of the spins is constantly in conflict with the statistic truth of the dependence of the spins.

If between two equivalent appearances none, or only a very small deviation exists, the independence of the two appearances remains retained in their fight against each other.

But if the statistic deviation reaches a certain size, the size of this deviation more or less limits the independece of these appearances and spins.

In this instant the dependence of the appearances on the laws of nature demands again its right, by limiting its freedom for deviation within the statistic average values, of which these never can free itself.

In our opinion neither a single spin nor an appearance can be independ in a roulette permanence of a certain length, for example within 1024 spins.

The dependence of the spins which are affected by chance due to exactly defined laws, is a fact, which the usual gambler does not understand without difficulty. And because of this difficulty the gamblers and also the mathematicians believe in the independence of roulette spins.

In reality each spin and each appearance has its necessary and mandatory function in the whole of a roulette permanence.

Chance does not exist there, because all effects have their visible or hidden causes.

The dependence of the spins on the laws of nature becomes obvious, if we analyze a roulette permanence and classify the developed appearances.

However we do not succeed in each case in determining this dependence, which must be present for all spins, if only small deviations occur, which do not exceed the average statistical Ecart of 1.

We only succeed then, if we determine the partial return to equilibrium after very strong deviations greater than a statistical Ecart of 3.

The roulette ball cannot extract itself from the laws of nature.

These laws force it into the pocket, into which it must fall, so that it can perform the necessary function, which it has to, in the statistic harmony of the whole permanence - like a note in a score.

Chance can let many obvious, strange features develop before our eyes. But nevertheless, statistically seen, chance can not repeat these individual strange things too frequently, like for example a series of 25, which needs approximately 34 million spins to develop once.