Counter Balance For Safety

[GLC]

 This bet progression method similar to other methods I have posted, but this one is more polished and I didn't want to be too confusing by adding it to another one.


It’s based on the fact that every now and then we encounter a “loss to win” ratio that is way out of balance.  So far, in fact, that if we’re using a progression, it can drive our bets through the roof.  For example, if we’re playing even chance bets, most progressions can handle 10 losses to 8 wins and deliver a profit.  Some can even handle 15 losses to 8 wins for a short time.  But we know there’s no boundaries for how long an unnatural balance can continue.  We need to have some way to control losses in these not so rare situations.  This method is only one way to do it.

I designed it based on a few other methods so I’m not going to give anyone else credit since the ideas are common knowledge and their copyright protection expired a century ago.

The method is based on the interplay of three sets of numbers.  The first number is the number of losses.  Both the bet size and the “control number” are determined by the number of losses.  The second number is the size of your bet and the last is the “control number”.  Whenever the size of your bet overtakes the control number which has a direct relationship with the number of losses you’ve had up to that point, it’s time to surrender.

Most of the time you will have achieved a minor victory and the word surrender will not be entirely accurate.  The word conquer could be used, but that’s a scary word to use in the context of roulette.  Let’s say we gained a slight edge momentarily.

We will be increasing the bet size after wins and changing the amount by which we increase each bet based on how many bets we have lost.

We will also be increasing the “control number” based on how many bets we have lost.

If we don’t eventually increase our bet size by a greater ratio after a win than we do our “control number” after a loss, the two numbers might never meet and our bet size will just keep rising and our drawdown will continue to grow larger until we either reach the table maximum or go broke.

That’s enough of the theory behind this bet method.  Let’s get on with the details.

First we will cover the even chance bets.  I should point out that this is a bet progression methodology and can be played on any even chance bet system.  It can even be adapted to other bets, like horse racing or blackjack with just a little imagination on the punter’s part.

First, I want to define the “control number”.  It is directly related to the number of losses but it’s not always equal to the number of losses.  The number of losses always increased by 1 number for each loss.  The control number will increase by more than 1 number for each loss if we are still playing after 5 losses. 

Our losses are divided into groups of 5 each. 1-5; 6-10; 11-15 etc…

For even chance bets we begin by increasing our bet size by 1 unit after each loss until we’ve had 5 losses.  We also increase our “control number” by 1 after each loss until we’ve had 5 losses.  Most of our attacks will be won before we have 5 losses and surely before we’ve had 10 losses.  If we’re still fighting after 5 losses, we want to begin moving at a quicker pace hoping for a few extra wins that can close the gap and give us victory.

Each attack is shooting for an immediate win which will give us 1 unit for our profits.  Or, if we lose our first bet of an attack, we play until we return to at least even or +1.

We begin by betting 1 unit.  Every time we win a bet we increase the bet amount by 1 additional unit.  If we start off losing and don’t return to even or plus before we reach 5 losses, we start increasing our bet amount by 2 units after every win.  We increase our bet amount by 3 units between losses 11-15, increase by 5 units between 16-20, by 8 units 21-25, by 13 units 26-30 and by 20 units for each loss once we have over 30 losses.

At the same time we will increase our control number by 1 number during the 1^st 5 losses.  Then we increase our control number by 2 for each loss from losses 6-10.  Then we increase our control number by 3 for each loss from losses 11-15, then 4 from losses 16-20, then 6 from losses 21-25, then 8 from 26-30, then 10 for all losses over 30.

Summary:
Losses 1-5   Increase bets by 1 after each win
                      Increase control number by 1 after each loss

Losses 6-10  Increase bets by 2 after each win
                       Increase control number by 2 after each loss

Losses 11-15  Increase bets by 3 after each win
                         Increase control number by 3 after each loss

Losses 16-20  Increase bets by 5 after each win
                         Increase control number by 4 after each loss

Losses 21-25  Increase bets by 8 after each win
                         Increase control number by 6 after each loss

Losses 26-30  Increase bets by 13 after each win
                         Increase control number by 8 after each loss

Losses 31-35  Increase bets by 20 after each win
                         Increase control number by 10 after each win

As you can see, we are hoping in the early going that if we have more losses than expected, we can recover with a counter balance of wins because we will increase our bet size somewhat.  If by the time we are increasing our bet size by 5 units after each win, we are betting fairly large bets and are looking to close the gap between bet size and control number more quickly, therefore, our bet size increases at a faster pace than our control number.  If we get to more than 30 losses without having closed the gap, we are in emergency mode and should be able to close the gap with only a couple of wins because we are increasing our bet sizes at twice the rate we’re increasing our control number.

That’s the basic bet method.  It’s fairly logical.  The numbers can be tweaked to suit your playing style and personality but be sure you understand the ramifications of any changes before you play for real money.

In my next post, I will give the numbers for adapting this to some of the other bets on the roulette table.

Once you understand this even chance method, the others will a piece of cake.

Cheers,

GLC

[GLC]

Double Dozens:

Losses 1-5 Increase bet by 1 unit on each dozen after 2 wins
                Increase control number by 1 number after 1 loss

Losses 6-10  Increase bet by 2 units after 2 wins
                   Increase control number by 2 numbers after 1 loss

Losses 11-15  Increase bet by 3 units after 2 wins
                     Increase control number by 3 numbers after 1 loss

Losses 16-20  Increase bet by 5 units after 2 wins
                     Increase control number by 4 numbers after 1 loss

Losses 21-25  Increase bet by 8 units after 2 wins
                     Increase control number by 6 numbers after 1 loss

Losses 26-30  Increase bet by 13 units after 2 wins
                     Increase control number by 8 numbers after 1 loss

Losses 31 +   Increase bet by 20 units after  2 wins
                    Increase control number by 10 numbers after 1 loss


Single Dozens:

L's 1-5   Increase bet by 1 unit after 1 win
             Increase control number by 1 number after 2 losses

L's 6-10   Increase by 2 units after 1 W
               Increase CN by 2 numbers after 2 losses

L's 11-15   Increase by 3 units after 1 W
                Increase CN by 3 numbers after 2 losses

L's 16-20   Increase by 5
                Increase by 4

L's 21-25   Increase by 8
                Increase by 6

L's 26-30  Increase by 13
               Increase by 8

L's 31+    Increase by 20
               Increase by 10

A "buyer beware" clause.  These numbers on bet locations other than the even chances are just extrapolations of the even chance numbers.  With testing we may decide that they need to be tweaked for improved effectiveness.

[Bayes]

Hi George,

Interesting MM. Have you done any testing yet or is it still in the theory stage? 

It reminds me somewhat of the "Turnaround" system for EC bets which was doing the rounds a few years ago. Similar to Trioplay but more complex. It might even be on the forum somewhere.

p.s. Just found it here.

[Tomla021]

thats pretty crazy,, love the idea just hate the idea of betting big numbers but this could clear out on any type of of small streak so it should stay in the 1st two slots,, pretty clevah

[amk]

Thanks GLC and Bayes, great info!

[GLC]

Bayes,  It is similar to turnaround and trioplay.  I left out the pump, jump, bump and thump as being too complicated.  They are all built on the same principle of less than full recovery when things get out of control.  I have been testing it on e.c.'s and dbl dozens.  It's like all progressions, sometime it works great and sometime other methods work better.  But overall it's been holding it's own against other progressions for those 2 bets.

Tom,  The bets can get pretty high if you're having a really bad run.  Don't seem to be able to counter that without having and Italian grinder.

[Tomla021]

I miss those Grinders George ---i will test 100 spins with this for fun and to learn some more

[Tomla021]

could you post a short egzample of something so that I can see how your placing the numbers?

[GLC]

Here's a short run on even chance bets.
Losses   Bet amt   W/L     Control #   Total        Profits
1                 1          L              1             -1
2                 1          L              2             -2
2                 1          W             2             -1
3                 2           L             3             -3
4                 2           L             4             -5
5                 2           L             5             -7  We have reached 5 losses so we raise our bet amount and out control number by 2 instead of 1.  Raise the bet after a Win. The control # after a loss.
6                 2           L             7             -9
6                 2           W            7             -7
6                 4           W            7             -3
7                 4            L             9            -7  Note that we didn't raise our bet to 6 which is where we were supposed to raise it to because we never bet more than needed to win +1 and we were at -3, so we stayed at 4 units.  We lost, so we keep going from 4 units.
7                 4           W             9            -3
8                 4            L             11          -7  Once again only needed to bet 4 to reach +1. 
9                 4            L             13          -11
9                 4            W            13          -7 
9                 6            W            13          -1
9                 2            W            13          +1
We reset at this point.
Notice that the control # started out staying even with the bet sizes but once we started increasing it by 2, it started getting larger than the number of losses.

9 Losses and 7 wins.  Almost any progression will win with this loss to win ratio.  This was just to show you how to keep track of the system.  It's not the only way to keep track.  Choose however you are comfortable with.

[Tomla021]

Thanks George that clarifies it.

[GLC]

I just played the above sequence of Losses and win using +1,-1 D'Alembert.  Won +2 units.  Highest bet was 5 and largest draw down we -10.

Am I trying to get too clever for my britches?

I was just re-reading a bet progression called "Half Peak".  You just bet +1, -1.  The way you prevent a major loss is to re-set any time you drop back half way from your largest draw down.

I've tested it with a little twist. (I like the word twist instead of tweak.  No druggy connotations).

When you recover half of your largest drawdown, instead of starting over from 1, just drop back to half way between your half peak point and 1 unit.

Example:  First, create a chart showing how far in the hole you would be if you lost every bet and increased each bet by 1 unit.  So

Bet        Amt down
1                -1
2                -3
3                -6
4                -10
5                -15
6                -21
7                -28
8                -36
9                -45
10              -55
11              -66
12              -78
13              -91
14              -105
etc...

Let's say we were in the hole -75 units and we're back to being down 37 units.  So, from the above chart we can see that we were betting 8 units when we reached -37,  so half way to 1 would be 4 units.

Instead of going all the way to 1 we just drop back to betting 4 and being -10 units.  Continue playing from that point.  If you get back to 1, you should be in decent shape.  At least your loss will be curtailed.

As with all progressions, you must always set a stop-loss beyond which you will not lose.

Simple.  Easy to play anywhere.

I like it.

GLC

[amk]

Didn't get the Clooney avatar, now I do.