Standard Deviation math formula please!

[Ralph]

I use to sometimes test BV NoZero, put 10 Euro in the game account, set the automatic spin on 100, 200 or 1000 and let it run with 1 cent on an EC. The result + or - from 10 Euro tell the differense.
I think I did it more than 100 times. Its not a large  test yet. But I can see the waves.
In 100 it has been 28 more or less, and then it hover and goes opposite.

The gain of this knowledge is still minor, a few Euro running the whole day. Set 1000 spin before sleep, and check in the morning. (yes I am retired).

[monaco]

It's interesting that Ralph uses the word 'wave' to describe the observation of his results, but yet it can't be denied that spins are independent.

All spins are independent - but I think of them in the way I was taught about electrons back in school. Observing an electron, they can be viewed as having properties of an individual particle, but also possessing the properties of a wave, a duality - spins have this duality also, they are 2 things at the same time - an independent spin but also possessing the properties of a wave.
What's true for electrons in particle physics is true for a little ball in roulette.


{With regard to the STD, a deviation such as 3.00 means a more exaggerated wave of losses for one, and wins for the other. Exaggerated waves=easier to see=easier to act upon (or sit-out as the case may be).


It would be interesting to test if, once an STD of 3 had been reached, & once certain triggers had then been met pointing to a possible correction, a positive progression would then be profitable.}

[albertojonas]

It's interesting that Ralph uses the word 'wave' to describe the observation of his results, but yet it can't be denied that spins are independent.

All spins are independent - but I think of them in the way I was taught about electrons back in school. Observing an electron, they can be viewed as having properties of an individual particle, but also possessing the properties of a wave, a duality - spins have this duality also, they are 2 things at the same time - an independent spin but also possessing the properties of a wave.
What's true for electrons in particle physics is true for a little ball in roulette.


{With regard to the STD, a deviation such as 3.00 means a more exaggerated wave of losses for one, and wins for the other. Exaggerated waves=easier to see=easier to act upon (or sit-out as the case may be).


It would be interesting to test if, once an STD of 3 had been reached, & once certain triggers had then been met pointing to a possible correction, a positive progression would then be profitable.}

That is the core of Marigny theories. The point being made is that he applied it to the Law of series. (take a deeper look into Ego's posts).Then you have to develop a march to capture underrepresented events.


Example 1.
If you track Singles Vs Series:
you detect the 3.0 Ecart
then as you see a tendency for correction (2 series in a row) you bet series.




Example 2.
If you track Series of 2 Vs Larger Series
HOW TO TRACK
formation = value
singles = 0
series 2 = 1
series 3 = 0
series 4 = 1
series 5 = 2
series 6 = 3
series 7 = 4
...
then you may detect 3.0 STD in any window of spins

The MARCH
After a 3.0 STD you wait for a series of 4 or 5 to grow
if lost
wait for the next series of 2 and attack


This is one option among many.
Cheers.

[albertojonas]

here is a picture of Singles Vs Series


[attachimg=1]

[Ralph]

this statistic is well known, what we have to do is to make any usefully way of explore it.

[ego]

Singles contra series.
The Perfect March.

Attempts -attacks - 5.
X = End of day.

Travemunde Table 1

921101 Ecart 3.13 +1
921111 Ecart 3.00 +1
921112 Ecart 3.15 +1
921112 Ecart 3.64 +1
921114 Ecart 3.15 +1
921117 Ecart 3.00 +1
921120 Ecart 3.15 -5
921212 Ecart 3.00 +1
921215 Ecart 3.65 +1
921219 Ecart 3.29 +1
921221 Ecart 3.88 +1
921222 Ecart 3.00 +1
930113 Ecart 3.00 +1
930114 Ecart 3.15 +1
930117 Ecart 3.00 -5
930117 Ecart 3.90 +1
930204 Ecart 3.80 +1
930204 Ecart 3.00 +1
930221 Ecart 3.29 +1
930223 Ecart 3.29 +1
930301 Ecart 3.15 +1
930302 Ecart 3.05 +1
930304 Ecart 3.57 +1
930305 Ecart 3.00 -5
930307 Ecart 3.50 -5
930324 Ecart 3.00 +1
930326 Ecart 3.88 +1
930330 Ecart 4.01 +1
930331 Ecart 3.00 +1
930406 Ecart 3.54 -5
930406 Ecart 3.15 +1
930407 Ecart 3.27 +1
930425 Ecart 3.00 +1
930428 Ecart 3.15 +1
930507 Ecart 3.00 +1
930507 Ecart 3.00 +1
930510 Ecart 3.13 -5
930516 Ecart 3.65 +1
930517 Ecart 3.29 +1
930520 Ecart 3.27 +1
930529 Ecart 3.27 +1
930601 Ecart 3.00 +1
930622 Ecart 3.12 +1
930626 Ecart 3.00 +1
930628 Ecart 3.41 +1

Now for less experience players this is how you can chart different values to get an overview of what you are up against.

Attempts 5, 5, 3, with different march.
X = End of day "depending on march this can give different results".
(Even the window of appearance can effect if it qualify or not.)


Singles contra series.

920108 Ecart 3.44 +1 +1 +1
920124 Ecart 3.27 +1 +1 +1
920127 Ecart 3.00 +1 +1 +1
920131 Ecart 3.00 +1 -5 +1
920205 Ecart 3.40 +1 -5 +1
920211 Ecart 3.12 +1 +1 +1
920213 Ecart 3.41 +1 .X .X
920214 Ecart 3.12 +1 +1 +1
920218 Ecart 3.12 .X +1 .X
920219 Ecart 3.27 .X .X +1
920302 Ecart 3.64 +1 +1 +1
920325 Ecart 3.40 -5 +1 +1
920406 Ecart 3.00 +1 +1 +1
920428 Ecart 3.00 +1 +1 +1
920519 Ecart 3.54 -5 +1 -3
920520 Ecart 3.00 +1 +1 +1
920527 Ecart 3.15 +1 +1 +1
920609 Ecart 3.00 +1 +1 -3
920612 Ecart 3.15 +1 +1 .X
920613 Ecart 3.00 +1 +1 +1
920617 Ecart 3.00 +1 +1 +1
920622 Ecart 3.00 +1 +1 +1
920716 Ecart 3.00 +1 +1 +1
920720 Ecart 3.00 +1 +1 +1
920723 Ecart 3.00 +1 +1 +1
920810 Ecart 3.02 -5 .X .X
920818 Ecart 3.15 +1 +1 +1
920824 Ecart 3.00 +1 +1 +1
920826 Ecart 3.15 +1 +1 -3
920827 Ecart 3.15 +1 -5 +1
920903 Ecart 3.15 +1 +1 +1
920904 Ecart 3.00 +1 +1 +1
920909 Ecart 3.00 .X .X +1
920915 Ecart 3.18 +1 +1 +1
920923 Ecart 3.02 +1 +1 +1
920924 Ecart 3.00 +1 .X +1
920930 Ecart 3.29 +1 +1 +1
921002 Ecart 3.12 +1 +1 +1
921005 Ecart 3.88 +1 +1 +1
921005 Ecart 3.15 +1 +1 +1
921014 Ecart 3.70 +1 +1 -3
921022 Ecart 3.50 +1 .X .X
921024 Ecart 3.65 +1 +1 +1
921027 Ecart 3.00 +1 .X +1
921030 Ecart 3.00 +1 +1 .X

1th march) 39/15
2th march) 39/15
3th march) 35/12

- - -

Attack mode 7.
The Perfect March.

X = End of day.

87/35

920108 +1
920108 +1
920115 +1
920124 +1
920127 +1
920131 +1
920205 +1
920207 +1
920211 +1
920213 +1
920214 +1
920218 .X
920219 .X
920302 +1
920325 -7
920406 +1
920428 +1
920519 -7
920520 +1
920527 +1
920609 +1
920612 +1
920613 +1
920617 +1
920622 +1
920716 +1
920720 +1
920723 +1
920729 +1
920810 .X
920818 +1
920820 +1
920824 +1
920826 +1
920827 +1
920903 +1
920904 +1
920909 .X
920915 +1
920923 +1
920924 +1
920930 +1
921002 +1
921005 +1
921005 +1
921014 +1
921022 +1
921024 +1
921027 +1
921030 +1
921101 +1
921111 +1
921112 +1
921112 +1
921114 +1
921116 +1
921117 +1
921120 -7
921209 +1
921212 +1
921215 +1
921219 +1
921221 +1
921222 +1
930113 +1
930114 +1
930117 -7
930117 +1
930204 +1
930204 +1
930221 +1
930223 +1
930301 +1
930302 +1
930304 +1
930304 .X
930305 +-0
930307 +1
930324 +1
930326 +1
930330 +1
930331 +1
930406 -7
930406 +1
930407 +1
930425 +1
930428 +1
930507 +1
930507 +1
930510 +1
930516 +1
930517 +1
930520 +1
930529 +1
930601 +1
930622 +1
930626 +1
930628 +1
   
All flat betting ...

Attempts three.

X = End of day.

1th) March two 81/51
2th) March one 70/60

920108 +1 +1
920108 +1 -3
920115 +1 +1
920124 +1 +1
920127 +1 +1
920131 -3 -3
920205 +1 -3
920207 +1 +1
920211 +1 +1
920213 +1 -3
920214 +1 +1
920218 -3 +1
920219 -3 .X
920302 +1 +1
920325 -3 +1
920406 +1 +1
920428 +1 +1
920519 -3 -3
920520 +1 +1
920527 +1 +1
920609 +1 +1
920612 +1 +1
920613 +1 +1
920617 +1 +1
920622 +1 +1
920716 +1 +1
920720 +1 +1
920723 -3 +1
920729 +1 -3
920810 -3 .X
920818 +1 +1
920820 +1 -3
920824 +1 +1
920826 +1 +1
920827 +1 -3
920903 +1 +1
920904 +1 +1
920909 -3 .X
920915 +1 +1
920923 +1 +1
920924 -3 -3
920930 +1 +1
921002 +1 +1
921005 +1 +1
921005 +1 +1
921014 +1 +1
921022 +1 .X
921024 +1 +1
921027 +1 .X
921030 +1 +1
921101 +1 +1
921111 +1 -3
921112 +1 +1
921112 +1 +1
921114 +1 +1
921116 -3 +1
921117 +1 +1
921120 -3 +1
921209 +1 +1
921212 +1 +1
921215 +1 +1
921219 +1 -3
921221 +1 +1
921222 +1 .X
930113 +1 +1
930114 +1 -3
930117 -3 -3
930117 +1 .X
930204 +1 -3
930204 +1 +1
930221 +1 +1
930223 +1 -3
930301 +1 +1
930302 +1 +1
930304 +1 -3
930304 -3 -3
930305 -3 +1
930307 -3 +1
930324 +1 +1
930326 +1 -3
930330 +1 +1
930331 +1 +1
930406 -3 +1
930406 +1 +1
930407 +1 +1
930425 +1 +1
930428 +1 +1
930507 +1 +1
930507 +1 +1
930510 -3 +1
930516 +1 +1
930517 +1 +1
930520 +1 +1
930529 +1 .X
930601 +1 -3
930622 +1 +1
930626 +1 -3
930628 +1 +1

[ego]

I add one software below.

Click on it and load numbers, sampels 10.000 or above.
Click on next to get the sequense with 3.0 or above.
Click on spin to see how the flow after 3.0 or above unfold it self with draw-downs.

This is what you will find out.

1) Correction exist and it is not an fallacy.
2) When two series or more chop you have draw-downs.
3) The idea is to gain +1 and that it overcome the amount of attempts you do to gain +1 - flat betting.
4) You can apply risk or ruin and with an slow prog that accept loses you higher you get into the prog scale and try to gain from shops of wins and accept loss strings.
5) I would say if you find an way you should use 100 chips and have an La partage rule and put an small amount on zero so the net % will break even or make an slight gain.
6) You can get significant statistical results first with your method before you play for real so you know what you are up against.
7) I dont take any responsibilty for any ones action using this information.

- - -

Singels contra series.

This post is for does who not can understand or make there own observation and develop a march - so her it is on a silver plate - but you have to verify it with your own statistics.

Note.
This is flat betting with a total of four attempts.
The march can develop to using attmepts around 4 6 8 10 steps to find different variance - but my short test show the cut goes around four and six.

1) Rule number one is to wait for two series to chop, the formation of two seris look like this RRRBBB and after that formation appers you attack twice and gain +1 unit.

If you don´t get a straight hit with three series in a row like this RRRBBRR you will have the following formation RRRBBRRB and aim for it to hovering with your secound bet RRRBBRRBRRRR if at zero you just follow the betting behavior, the march, until +1 or -2 being your first attack.

2) If you dont get two series to chop as I mention above you make your first attack when a state of hovering appers and it looks like this RRRBRRR and play that next formation will be followed with a serie like this RRRBRRRBB if not you will have the following formation RRRBRRRBR and would play it will continue to hovering and ride it out until +1 or -2 being your first attack.

3) If first attack fail you would repeat the betting singals above for one more attack with the difference that you dont aim to win +1 and now aim to break even because that would give you one less formation of correction wish appers more regulary then an longer correction to end up with +1 and this is a way to make the play more stabel with good results.

Result:

+1 +1 +0 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +0 +1 +1 +0 +1 -4 +1 +1 +1 +0 +1 +1 +1 +1 +0 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1

31 won
4 loss
27 total gain

[ego]

I am up for discussion about how to develop the perfect march and different playing models.
I am a Guru when it comes to even money bets ... don't want to brag but that is the truth.

Lets have some fun with this topic - you claim all bet selections are the same and it is the same thing playing with or against - then show us the same results that i show above flat betting !!!
If you can't then ask you self if it is better to use a tendency towards what is present then chasing for events.

Cheers

[Master_of_pockets]

""So where is the indication that the imbalance stop growing ""

There can t be any indication for this....If the imbalance will start correcting it s self , it can be done with a lot of ways and there are no indications for us to know when and how it will do it....

[ego]

""So where is the indication that the imbalance stop growing ""

There can t be any indication for this....If the imbalance will start correcting it s self , it can be done with a lot of ways and there are no indications for us to know when and how it will do it....

You are wrong and you missunderstand the basic principal how to read the random distribution following one specific playing model.

If you have 14 singles and two isolated present series you will have 3.00 STD.
Now if the distribution start hovering you have a STD that does not grow and getting stronger or getting weaker at that present moment - it just is a indincation or tendency of existing correction or if you get two series to chop it stop growing and after that is the future and also existing correction as there is a present change.

That is indications and tendency.
Different present state from previos wish indicate correction start to developing.
But as i told you before it can go back to back - but again it does not matter as you would only lose two singles bets.

[ego]

-

Illustration with real indications and tendency's and correction.

Singles contra larger series of singles.
Here can you see after 3.15 how larger series chop 3,4,5,6, and so on

Math value:

Singles has the value of 1
Series of two has the value of 0
Series of three has the value of 1
Series of four has the value of 2
Series of five has the value of 3
Series of six has the value of 4
And so on ...

1
1
2
2
2
1
1
2 2
1
1
1
2 2
1 1
2
2
1 1
2
2
2
2
2
1 1
2 2
1
1
2 2
1 1
2 2
1
1
2 2
1 1
2 2
1
1
1
2 2
1
1
2
2
1 1
2
2
2
1 1
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
2 2
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
1 1
2
2
1 1
2 2
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
1 1
2
2
2
1
1
1
2 2
1 1
2
2
1 1
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
2 2
1
1
2
2
1 1
2 2
1
1
1
1
2
2
1 1
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
2
2
1 1
2
2
2
1
1
2
2
1 1
2
2
2
1 1
2
2
1 1 Ecart/STD 3.15
2
2
1 1
2 2
1
1
1
1
1
2 2
1 1
2 2 Indication
1 1 Tendency
2 2
1 1
1
2 2
1 1
2 2
1 1
1
1
1
2 2
1 1
2 2
2
2
1
1
2
2
1 1
2 2
1 1
2 2
2
1 1
2 2
2
2
2
1
1
1
2 2
1 1
2 2
1 1
2 2
2
1
1
2 2
1 1
2 2
2
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
1 1
2 2
1 1
2 2
2
1
1
2
2
1
1
1
2 2
1 1
1
1
1
1
2 2
1 1
1
2 2
1 1
2 2
2
1 1
2 2
1 1
2 2
2
2
1 1
2 2
1 1
2 2
1 1
2 2
1 1
1
2 2
1 1
2 2
2
2
2
1 1
2 2
1 1
1
1
1
2 2
1 1
1
2 2
1 1
2 2
1 1
2 2
1 1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
1
2
1

[Master_of_pockets]

oK. I HOPE U ARE RIGHT.
But i don t think this has a mathematical logic.

[ego]

oK. I HOPE You are RIGHT.
But i don't think this has a mathematical logic.

Well MOP you are free to dislike what i write - but i can insure you it is.
The math and probability is correct.

It becomes a big world when you list all options how to measuring the distribution as Bayes mention.

[speed]

hello guys, interesting topic,

I personally do not believe in triggers, I think that the deviation we can only turn to our advantage with a some positive progression. With a flat bet it was practically impossible because each spin is independent of previous 9 or 999 999 999 (my option).

ego, did u try to code that playing model and indication of existing correction ?

[Ralph]

Our problem is how to explore it.  EC, DOZ, singles and  series, has the same pattern. You will for example find  about 50% series which is lower than higher no matter the length.
Otherwise we could just bet black after three reds thinking a four serie is 50% less, its true, but we must count all series longer than three, wich is 50% of all thinkable series.

A more holistic view of the movement may be working, but still we know a lot of this, but we do not know a lot of how to use it to our favour.
We normally do not bet a sere, it is in a strategy, but which?