The truth is
Wrong
if you keep playing, the HOUSE EDGE WILL BEAT YOU IN THE END. You can't argue with probability; YOU CAN'T BEAT PROBABILITY.
It's simply Common Sense, isn't it?
Right
Yes you can beat Probability its simple really. All you have to do is find enough of Probability to find the Absolute Probability. Which I might add can pin point any event. Albert Einstein was wrong that things canââ,¬â,,¢t predict an event to a pin point. Todayââ,¬â,,¢s computers can do just that. I have found this is true that all events can be predict
Regards
The Iceman1313
For me..............
Can Be Beaten. Not so much....what is the Truth....more a reality !! ;)
U just have to vary Ur play.
Use many many different strategies.
Play SMART.
Then u give Urself a Player-Edge!!
That has nothing to do with what I posted. Read my post again.
Vary Means nothing
Using different strategies means nothing
Play smart sounds good.
There is no players edge,unless you use Absolute Probability.
Regards
The Iceman1313
Wrong
I said one day that I would drop the bomb. I know that I have given the mathboyz a lot of disagreement over the past four years. It's because I was not willing to share something profound with them. They love real advantage. They completely understand that in the game of 21 there is a mathematical and finite value for advantage as the deck goes from 52 cards down to the end of its functional utility.
Now consider this: If a characteristic is true and pure to a discernible degree. If that characteristic has a duration to it that tends to continue for a time, then during that duration of continuation a mathematical advantage exists as long as that characteristic continues. There is no other reason for a characteristic like that continuing other than a normal distribution of randomness. There is no force that can cause it to discontinue other than a normal distribution of randomness. In other words, there is no force that can cause or prevent an advantage from starting to occur in the game of Roulette. One of the very best examples of this is in the form of the "global effect. " That is a term I made up to describe the phenomenon.
Now go forth and win your Fields Medal and your Nobel Prize.
Right is
Absolute Probability will tell you when a change will occur.
wrong
exists as long as that characteristic continues
RIGHT
is to use the characteristic in the Absolute Probability
Iceman1313
Sorry bud - you sound absolutely, probability nuts! :wink:
I DID refer to Ur post.
What I forgot to say is.
Right.
I am getting probability just about right.
Hows that?
(Probably still not correct for U)
Iceman....
Could you please enlighten us on how you apply Absolute Probability?
Quote from: Big EZ on Feb 27, 03:02 PM 2011
Iceman....
Could you please enlighten us on how you apply Absolute Probability?
Probably absolutely big words without much real effect.
Only science.
QuoteIf that characteristic has a duration to it that tends to continue for a time, then during that duration of continuation a mathematical advantage exists as long as that characteristic continues. There is no other reason for a characteristic like that continuing other than a normal distribution of randomness.
That is true - probability can create a certain advantage, and that advantage can be present for thousands of spins. I have tested this, computer program found rules which were used for a system and it survived many past spins (so take spins, find some rules, then play on them, system knew them in a hindsight). The problem is, that it was fitted to last spins, and it always failed on new spins. So the advatage is there, you can find it for known last spins, but you can't know how long will it last. BTW it was a simple system where first bet was x% of drawdown, second bet y% of drawdown, third bet z% of drawdown and so on maybe to 4th or 5th level. The sum of percentages was always 1. Virtual loss was added to drawdown every spin (like 0.05 per spin), so I could control how many units/spin it won on average. All what program did was to found those percentages, and they could have been always found for last spins. It was based on ideas of "very near infallible method". If there were a dominance of series, y and z were higher while x was lower, so more recover have been done on series than singles. Or if there was more singles, then x value was higher and rest lover. I thought of dynamicaly change these, but did not find a rule.
The problem there - how to found a bet selection that will be a winner in future? There is no way I know of, all you can do is betting that you have right one. So advantage is hidden from us, and we can't found it. If you found it, it is like if you have won a jackpot, the chance is very small (and the profit from it is like winning jackpot of course). So yes - there can be people, who created their system, and no matter how weird it is, even if it is based on astrology or magic or anything similar, it might work for them. They might be lucky and their personal lucky bet selection can be based on something like that, and actually work. But any method will fail in the end. Look, when I was testing some system, it happend it have been working for tens of thousands of spins, it must happen for someone. But sometimes it failed so often that it never recovered before another failure.
You might be right in this - there MIGHT exist a system, that if played, then all who play it in the upcoming ten years, will always win. No matter who, no matter where. Some event, that no ones sees, which NEVER happens MIGHT be hidden there. If you find all events that does not happen or happen much less than expected, then for sure you have that "almost" holy grail among them. But even so, there would be TOO MANY of these systems. Which one to select - nobody knows. So in the end, we can do nothing. After ten years pass, we can get all our spins together, and we can found it was actually there, just before our eyes, but we were just blind :xd:
"absolute probability
Conventionally, it is known as discrete probability, as an example, the binomial probability distribution. For absolute probability (quantized probability), the random variable only takes on positive integer values, e.g. 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, ââ,¬Â¦ The lowest bound of zero is sometime ignored but the largest upper bound approaching infinity is never used for all practical purposes. In practice, by the central limit theorem, most absolute probability functions are often approximated by the continuous probability of a normally distributed Gaussian error function whose area integral is set exactly unity.
Unfortunately, the domain of continuous functions includes irrational numbers. These numbers possess built-in intrinsic probabilities of absolute unpredictability. As an example, the decimal expansion of p(see link:://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pi (link:://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pi))would indicate. The probability of predicting which decimal digit among 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 will appear next changes according to its previous appearance in the decimal sequence if not then their probabilities are all equal to zero." ( Antonio Lao)....
In other words. Tomorrow never comes.
Well it seems we are getting some nice information you might say a different look at things. But in fact a little off I might say in what I am trying to explain here. Absolute Probability means, to put Probability in such a situation that itââ,¬â,,¢s not possible to escape . Once this is done you take the highest Probability that is left to play your event. It takes many, many, many Probability to ensure you have the right answer to any event to a pin point.
Iceman1313
The only other person that knows this is a person that beat Keno. He now isnââ,¬â,,¢t allowed to play the game anymore which I think is unfair.
The reason why this man has beaten the game is the same reason what I have discovered for many years now. Random Numbers arenââ,¬â,,¢t Random.
Also the wheel has a memory; WOW did I blow your mind on that one. Any person with even with a little thought would know this by now. Maybe Iââ,¬â,,¢ll give you a sample
Why donââ,¬â,,¢t you see the number 25 come out ten times in a row, then 10 more then 10 more. The answer is the wheel already knows and remembers what has happened the spins before. And you people canââ,¬â,,¢t see that after all these years. Itââ,¬â,,¢s a shame really. When oh when will people open their eyes and see the old story about the wheel is just old.
The Iceman1313
@iceman1313
"I know that I have given the mathboyz a lot of disagreement over the past four years. "
Have you, now?
And "...over the past four years..." you write. Very odd...
Can't have been here -- you joined here October 26, 2010, 07:18:45 pm
Perhaps you're a former (troublesome??) member now back here under a different name with some sort of agenda. Were you previously banned from here, I wonder?
And please be aware all the Moderators are currently keeping an eye on your posts, as, indeed, we do with all new posters in particular.
Oh my goodness me -- what a surprise.
GIZMOTRON HAS ALSO POSTED THESE EXACT WORDS:
"I know that I have given the mathboyz a lot of disagreement over the past four years. "
here: link:://rouletteforum.cc/general-discussion/logic-is-the-bomb (link:://rouletteforum.cc/general-discussion/logic-is-the-bomb)!/
What a coincidence.
Now tell me you're not the same individual and I'll gladly change my tablets...
Wheel has no memory, game is perfectly random. So why we don't see that? Because probability is so low, that it most most probably won't happen in our lifetime. But it can happen. Do you think we will ever see same numbers in keno or other lottery to be drawn twice in a row? I would bet we won't. It is possible, of course, but practically it does not happen that often. If it is 'almost' certainity it won't happen, we might simplify it to 'it will never happen' (this is false assumption). Because of that, ANY other combination of numbers have 'slightly' higher probability than math dictates (this is not true) and we MIGHT consider those events "dependent". They really are not dependent, but they seems so to us. It is a mirage, fata morgana.
What is a probability to see again same pattern of RB in 32 spins? 0.5^32, and that happens once in 4294967296 32 long spins sessions on average. While it can repeat twice in a row, do you think, you will ever see it? The probability is 0.5^64, so you almost absolutely probably won't see that. Can we base a system on that? I don't know, probably not. Since we are to face table limits, 64 spins long marty or any other EC progression is impossible.
What we really need to know is how to enusure, that we will regularly get a concentration of hits above average in order to play positive progression. Assuming there were limits for how long can pattern not show, we would have to measure all possible patterns and then bet on them appearing. It is not much similar from waiting for a number, and waiting does not work there. Or do you think that if you find a 700 spins sleeper, you will win for SURE in the next 300?
Similar situation can be created artificialy by finding a number that slept in first tracked 200 spins, then another number which slept in another 200 spins, then again, and then any that slept in 100 spins. Now if you bet that pattern, are you sure to hit? No. But had you chosen that pattern as a selection, you would have just cometh through a really bad standard deviation, and your gambling demon inside would be telling you to bet because it is due to hit.
All you gotta do is ask Iceman to post how he BEATS roulette so we can start testing on it. That usually quiets them down for a while. The beauty of it......if he says NO method is 'decent' enough, thats even better. Then I ask in return......why are you here? Its a win win questioning the guy.
Ken
Yes, he should probably tell us more. He is telling us it can be done with a computer.
"Today’s computers can do just that."
Please iceman, could you give as at least a hint how do you do that what you claim to do? While not having to describe your method, at least descibe the principles properly.
Somethink like:
If z-score of bet-selection X < -2.0 and z-score of bet-selection Y < -2.0 and X and Y would bet same event Z this spin THEN bet event Z
because we assume it to start hitting soon...
example of this would be something like
if there were 12 series and no single and 13 series started and is already 5 spins long, start betting that coulor with progression and if hit, continue next bet to formation of another single (bet on formation of isolated single - ...RRRBBBRRRRR(B)R).
Not that it would work long term, just an examle of what I mean and how should your explanation look like.
Hi mr.0re
You said this mr.ore in your post
so you almost absolutely probably won't see that. Can we base a system on that?
Answer
I enjoy your read and thank you for your post. You seem very smart.
If only you read this statement above and think real hard on it. Because do you know why? Because itââ,¬â,,¢s the base of want I do in my method
Please read that statement I say maybe a 1000 times then think on it. Then if you donââ,¬â,,¢t see what I see. Please with all do respect read it into it hits you because one it does you will be better then Albert Einstein .I base all what I know on that statement (so you almost absolutely probably won't see that.} Look deep my friend and all answer will come to you. That statement was the beat I ever sure on any forum. The reason why there lies every answer needed to beat every event to a pin point. The key words are {Absolutely Probably WONââ,¬â,,¢T see it} Nice post mr.ore
The Iceman1313
Hi mr.ore
I will always try to answer you because of that statement you wrote which I made a reply on already.
I can tell you this.
I put so many Probabilities in the computer it takes 10 minutes with 4 processes going at the same time. I had someone that program it for me. I do believe he is the top programmer in the world. Heââ,¬â,,¢s over them all .I use enough probability to confirm what will happen next. Millions of them but that is only a few because there are infinity of them.
The Iceman1313
I remember a guy named Gamlet that once said the wheel has "one great memory" and that the wheel was alive. He was also heavy into numerology.
Hi Proofreaders2000
Most everybody knows that it does have memory meaning not only the wheel but all events also. Only those who keep the old thinking alive that never wanted to learn anything new.
The Iceman1313
Iceman, let's not quarrel, but get closer to the point. Can u please elaborate more on your statement and give some examples about seeing events and predicting them. Cause otherwise your hints are not even hints, but just pure philosophy, and that forum is about beating roulette, not about philosophy.
thanx.
Sorry Iggiv
I will answer mr.ore only because I answered one of his statement that I thought was really good.. Also he seems very smart and can understand more then other people here.With do respect I only say this to all other fine people that post here.
The Iceman1313
why PM?
if u PM him, PM me as well, i don't mind :))
? So if we was smart with computers made a program to sort a couple hundred numbers maybe you can do it on paper but it's not for the faint haerted! you would find a event? Or to put a little better you wouldn't find a event that happend the reason few have found it is becouse it can't be "seen" only crunching numbers and working threw lots of data can this event be found or lack of event to put better cover all but this event and you have a consistant winner!! If a,b never went to a,c which would be a loss of four but this event doesn't happen so now we have 16 losses of 1 and 16 winners of 2 and 1 zero take as a loss of four you walk away with 12+ simple
Quote from: iceman1313 on Feb 28, 12:21 AM 2011
Sorry Iggiv
I will answer mr.ore only because I answered one of his statement that I thought was really good.. Also he seems very smart and can understand more then other people here.With do respect I only say this to all other fine people that post here.
The Iceman1313
@Iceman1313
Warning
Please dont talk at our Members like that, even with your due respect. Thank you.
Chill mod .I was only saying he was posting good posts . Not like the other were doing
The Iceman1313
I still don't get that "absolute probability" ??? those words are contradiction. If you stored past events, then by the time you would have enough of them to make bets based on idea that events with very very low probability will not most most probably repeat anytime soon, enough time would have already passed for them to be actually quite probable to appear. I have not tested those ideas yet, too much hastle to program that.
BTW the thread have changed a "mood" :D If someone wanted to know why I am wasting my time there, it is because roulette is just my hobby. I am curious what have iceman to say, I can't know his real intentions, he might be honest in believing what he says, or if not, then we will have some fun there at least.
Hi mr.ore
There is no contradiction in words here. It means absolutely the probability of it not working. Meaning it just wonââ,¬â,,¢t work. You see my friend you use this new concept which no other people in the world has the brain to work with new Ideas. They are locked in finding a winner. Well that canââ,¬â,,¢t be done. BUT you can find out what canââ,¬â,,¢t win then what is left will be the winning event results. Remember there are events out there that pay better than the wheel pays. Look there for winning for real Some events pay over $250,000 for $1.00 and some only pay $500.00 the smallest one I look at is $ 5,000.00 and higher.
I gave up on Roulette because you are being watched all the time. Also you win only a few thousand a day what the heck you going to do with only a few thousand a day. I can tell you that answer you will waste your life away.
Think of this if you want to buy a real nice boat but cheap .The boat will cost about 5 million dollars. Some boats go for a few hundred million .Now see how many days it takes out of your life. Not only that, the time you win enough to buy that 5 million dollar boat another few years will past to win enough for the gas.
Another way I look at it Iââ,¬â,,¢m old over 60 been at this for over 40 years I was in the 20ââ,¬â,,¢s when I invented a method to beat Roulette. Then I got smart to get to the bigger payouts.
Also if I came home now with only 2,000 for the day I would Die a slow death. By My WIFE.
The Iceman1313
James Wendell how the hell are you?
Hi James Wendell!
A.
Hi big Guys
Wow Wendel I heard that somewhere I think at a Lotto store. He seems to win all the time
He must had found a great programmer because he was looking for one a long time. Even here
I think. Also has method of play is here or at the old vsl.
The Iceman 1313
I remember were the method is, it's in the old vls. under testing. In the test in Bac, it was ahead $300,000.00 flat betting about avg of 100.00 a shoe . 3,000 shoes were done all done by flat betting.
The Iceman1313