I hope you guys don't mind, but I think the JL Challenge thread is a great opportunity to test out some Money Management (MM) strategies, so I will be using the results posted on the JL Challenge to test out an Even Chance MM strategy that I call 'EC Money'.
I will use the results from JL's selections with my own MM.
Good luck JL, if you win, I win, we all win!
If it shows enough promise as the test matures then I will explain the process. If not, then I will shove it where the sun don't shine! :D
Attached is a comparison of the test results thus far.
I skipped the 1st result from the JL challenge link.
From there if you look at my .txt you'll see that the Lw registry overall shows -2 flat betting, but the EC Money plan's profit is +66.
The same -2 registry shows +6 for JL.
Early days... 8)
Quote from: Skakus on Jul 03, 07:48 AM 2012
I hope you guys don't mind, but I think the JL Challenge thread is a great opportunity to test out some Money Management (MM) strategies, so I will be using the results posted on the JL Challenge to test out an Even Chance MM strategy that I call 'EC Money'.
I will use the results from JL's selections with my own MM.
Good luck JL, if you win, I win, we all win!
If it shows enough promise as the test matures then I will explain the process. If not, then I will shove it where the sun don't shine! :D.
Hi skakus, its not going to. Be easy the hard part is doubling the.BR. If get there, I'm really on my way.
Attached is a comparison of the test results thus far.
Hi JL.
God luck with your challenge.
If you can pick these ECs at anything close to 50% correct then my EC Money strategy should slay this game!
Using your results I'm already at +141 as opposed to your +12, with +144 being the next safe zone with bet reductions to follow. :thumbsup:
***If you can pick these ECs at anything close to 50% correct then my EC Money strategy should slay this game!***
I say let's slay it.
And cut off its ying-yang!
>:(
LOL.
We'll save its ying-yang for you, TwoCatSam. ^-^
Quote from: Skakus on Jul 03, 05:53 PM 2012
Hi JL.
God luck with your challenge.
If you can pick these ECs at anything close to 50% correct then my EC Money strategy should slay this game!
Using your results I'm already at +141 as opposed to your +12, with +144 being the next safe zone with bet reductions to follow. :thumbsup:
Well done Skakus. I'm taking it slow to start with. The idea is to build the powerbase slowly but surely. I've been telling everyone this forever. And its how I work. If I reach 400 units. Then I can take a few more risks. Remember its easy to work a money management system against events that have come and gone. When you are in the thick of it waiting for the result of each spin its something else.
The idea is to get in and out as quickly as possible. Today I got what I came for in only 10 spins. Yesterday was another story I lost count. Tomorrow could be either kind of session. Or somewhere in the middle. The age old mistake made by too many is trying to win too much too soon. And ending up losing too much too soon. Then joining the negative camp telling everyone you ain't going nowhere with this game ever.
I am trying to show to convey my philosophy and application of play with this game. Its not about winning huge amounts in a hurry. I never attempt to win more than 10 units in any one session. What I try to do is over the course of time raise the unit value. Always in relation to BR growth. Whether you play a live wheel or RNG. They are not going to hand you your winnings. You will have days where it seems easy like today was for me. Then the next day you will swear that random is out to get you. In either case you keep your focus on your objective. And remember its better to bail with a small loss or small profit. Than to leave a session with half your bankroll gone. And that gutted feeling that you have been ripped apart.
I am taking it one step at a time. I realize for many my pace will be too slow. But I am here to win over the long haul. And if I am able to achieve my objectives over the coming months. I think I will achieve something a lot more important. The openning of more than a few minds. To what is really possible with this game. And that's all I can ask for.
I do appreciate the get in and get out way of betting is very safe & sensible. Also that it is easier to play against past results.
The EC Money strategy is all about taking money from the casino or die trying, guns a blazing!
It is a balls out method to be sure, and a large lifetime bank is needed (432 units x 3 = 1296 units) but it is also peppered along the way with sensible win goals, stop losses, and safety brakes.
There is a master progression and a slave progression, a master bank and a slave bank. The four together can be very effective over the long haul as long as you pick close to 50% winners.
Anyway we will see what we will, and if you succeed with accurate selections then when combined with the EC Money plan, the profits should flow through nicely.
I will be watching with interest.
JL's most recent session has all but destroyed my momentum.
Like I said, you need to be hitting close to 50% with your bets for this to work.
Anyway I'll persist for now, but if JL can't pick his fair share of winners then there's not much hope.
Also, this MM is for the ECs only so I'll have to ignore any other bets JL makes.
Attached is the updated .txt file with the current results.
Considering how JL smashed it apart with his last effort, I'm happy to be fighting on with 32 units in the bank.
I noticed a 4 unit mistake along the way so the balance should be 36 units but I'll let it slide and just continue. No biggie.
Come on JL, back on your horse, mate! :)
I’ve tried a handful of ‘practice sessions’ to get a feel for this challenge format and I’ll probably try some more before I rip in.
I’ll only ever really be able to roughly explain my bet selections because even though I’m using a systematic approach, I’m still deciding whether or not to bet etc on a spin by spin basis. Also the selection method could evolve somewhat as we go.
The main point of my attempt to beat Bayes RNG is,
A) To test out my EC Money Management strategy.
B) To win, and to show it can be done (same as JL is attempting).
Now I’m no Johnlegend, and this challenge is a long term deal, but at the end I’m hoping to start a new thread called, ‘RIP Bayes RNG’ or ‘Skakus Is A Douchbag’. (link:://rouletteforum.cc/Smileys/default/azn.gif)
So far I've placed 129 EC bets for 66w 63L.
Start Bankroll = 300
Current Bakroll = 351
I've made a few little mistakes along the way with the wrong amount bet, or the wrong field filled in, and I even had one little finger spasm that double clicked the program for a loss that should have been a win, but it all amounts to very little difference I would think.
This is tough, but its fun.
Cool!
EC Money has made it to the first end zone of +144 units.
That means I can back off the bet size back to stage 1.
The system increases the chip range as the bank fluctuates up and down, but when it reaches an end zone, either +144 or -432, it goes back to stage 1.
There are 5 stages.
1) 1.2.3.4.5.6.7.8.9.10
2) 2.4.6.8.10.12.14.16.18.20
3) 3.6.9.12.15.18.21.24.27.30
4) 4.8.12.16.20.24.28.32.36.40
5) 5.10.15.20.25.30.35.40.45.50
In the uploaded sessions I've made a few errors in the staking but it all evens out in the end.
In my last session I made a small error, so then tried to chase the few units and lost a string of small bets to lose all chips gained for the session.
I won't be doing that again, I hope.
link:://:.gigabean.co.uk/s_test.html (link:://:.gigabean.co.uk/s_test.html) :thumbsup:
Very interesting!
wow...good for u Skakus. good for u
I suppose I should keep a wL tally as that will show whether or not EC money is effective.
Current tally = 96w 86L +10w = 52.7% hit rate.
Like I said elsewhere if I can hit close to 50% then EC Money should profit well. It would depend somewhat on where the winners & losers come and I haven't tested extensively, but my guess is it could hit as low as 48% and still profit. If it goes much lower than that then it might struggle, we will see.
So accuracy is the key, and in that regard, early session accuracy is a big advantage.
This opens the possibility that my selection system combined with EC Money could benefit from a hit and run style approach, but that would rely on early session accuracy. If the early session selections are not accurate then the sessions could get lengthy and would rely on the EC Money plan to turn the tables to profit.
I will be experimenting with various session lengths to see if that could be true.
Current tally = 99w 86L +13w = 53.5% hit rate.
Skakus, this looks good!
[attachimg=1]
So you are applying money management to about 20% of JL's bets?
Which bets are those again...EC bets? How do you tell it's an EC bet?
Is there a thread that talks about what you are doing in a little more detail?
Hello Still.
No mate, I have dropped JL's selections and joined the Bayes RNG challenge myself.
The results posted in this thread and uploaded online are from my own EC selection method. It's all in the link posted on reply 13 of this thread.
I've had a good start, which always helps with these things. I hope my luck holds for a while longer. It would be nice to clear the 1st danger zone and reach a bankroll of 732 units. :)
Quote from: Skakus on Jul 09, 01:20 AM 2012
Hello Still.
No mate, I have dropped JL's selections and joined the Bayes RNG challenge myself.
The results posted in this thread and uploaded online are from my own EC selection method. It's all in the link posted on reply 13 of this thread.
I've had a good start, which always helps with these things. I hope my luck holds for a while longer. It would be nice to clear the 1st danger zone and reach a bankroll of 732 units. :)
Oh ok thanks for the clarification. So you started out testing against JLs prints, saw some positive results and then just decided to select your own EC's and have Bayes software print out the results of your money management?
I gotta hand it to Bayes and this new method of printing out results.
Frankly, i'd jump on it too if i could sift through the information overload i'm experiencing here and get down to a system that actually produces. I'm here to beat the game if at all possible. Trying to decipher whether it is or isn't from the various vacillating voices is challenging. I am not sure where to commit my limited supply of programming energy/ability for the most promising payoff.
Quote from: Still on Jul 09, 02:06 AM 2012
Oh ok thanks for the clarification. So you started out testing against JLs prints, saw some positive results and then just decided to select your own ECs and have Bayes software print out the results of your money management?
I gotta hand it to Bayes and this new method of printing out results.
Frankly, i'd jump on it too if i could sift through the information overload i'm experiencing here and get down to a system that actually produces. I'm here to beat the game if at all possible. Trying to decipher whether it is or isn't from the various vacillating voices is challenging. I am not sure where to commit my limited supply of programming energy/ability for the most promising payoff.
Well I know how you feel, but don’t look at me! Hahahaha!
Yes, Bayes deserves much Kudos for his efforts.
I started out pitting JL’s results against my EC Money management plan, but you need to hit close to 50% with your selections. Obviously you can hit more, but not much less. With a powerful MM plan like this I can’t for the life of me figure out why cheese only flat bets. I mean the guy claims a 72% strike rate, and I claim EC Money can profit with a 48% strike rate. With 72% EC Money would be irrepressible!
JL started out with an adequate strike rate to run the EC Money plan but dropped away for whatever reason. I was going to continue to see how bad it could get, or if it could recover but the challenge got derailed and restarted.
At that point someone scoffed that Bayes’ RNG was unbeatable, and me being a cheeky mongrel said I could beat it. So here we are. I have my own Bayes RNG challenge, and so far so good for me! If things stay on track it looks like I might get to open that new thread I mentioned somewhere >>> ‘Skakus Is A Douchbag’
just a small question because i cant make it up out of your bayes results.
if you lose do you go up a unit in your betting-stage or 1 down ?
because you sometimes go up and down on W or L :-)
I could be wrong but it looks like a great MM
1) 1.2.3.4.5.6.7.8.9.10
2) 2.4.6.8.10.12.14.16.18.20
3) 3.6.9.12.15.18.21.24.27.30
4) 4.8.12.16.20.24.28.32.36.40
5) 5.10.15.20.25.30.35.40.45.50
A staged D'alembert I guess.
The bet selection I cant figure out at all
Quote from: Stepkevh on Jul 09, 03:10 AM 2012
if you lose do you go up a unit in your betting-stage or 1 down ?
Yes that's right. :)
Sometimes up sometimes down sometimes hold sometimes restart. Same thing when I win.
Quote from: Tomla021 on Jul 09, 11:03 AM 2012
I could be wrong but it looks like a great MM
1) 1.2.3.4.5.6.7.8.9.10
2) 2.4.6.8.10.12.14.16.18.20
3) 3.6.9.12.15.18.21.24.27.30
4) 4.8.12.16.20.24.28.32.36.40
5) 5.10.15.20.25.30.35.40.45.50
A staged D'alembert I guess.
The bet selection I can't figure out at all
Hi Tomla021.
Don't try to figure it mate.
I've made mistakes along the way, and my betting is moving across separate sessions so you will go mad before you figure it out.
Cheers.
Cool!
EC Money has made it to the second end zone with a bankroll of +603 units.
Back to the start with 1 unit bets. :)
First master end zone is +732 or -132.
Next slave end zone is +615 or +567.
If I can win one more series of slave zones then I can afford one wipeout and still retain my starting bankroll. :thumbsup:
Can this keep going I hear you ask? I certainly hope so, but in reality I expect to lose a few games at some point. I just hope I lose them at the low end of the progression table, not the high end.
I must say the last 3 or 4 sessions have been 'easy money'. ^-^
If anyone has studied my uploaded results you will see that I often end a session when the wL registry is equal, or even when the w’s are behind, but the balance has gone up.
This can be a good time to stop, because you have made a profit or broke even despite a deficit in the selections. So you get a little bit even though the fluctuation/deviation is not being helpful, and things could get worse.
Game 4 wins 2 units, with a 14w/14L registry.
Game 5 wins 3 units, with a 13w/13L registry.
Game 6 wins 5 units, with a 5w/5L registry.
Game 7 wins 6 units, with a 3w/3L registry.
Game 11 wins 9 units, with a 6w/8L registry.
Etc,,,
Bank doubled already - impressive. :love:
Come on JL! this boy's whipping your ass! :xd:
Here is a very brief and basic example of the EC Money concept.
Below are the first 9 bets placed in the ‘Skakus Challenge’.
07/08/2012
EVEN 1 W 301
LOW 2 W 303
07/08/2012
LOW 1 W 304
LOW 2 L 302
ODD 2 L 300
ODD 3 W 303
ODD 3 L 300
BLACK 3 L 297
ODD 4 W 301
The wL registry shows 5w 4L and 1 unit profit.
Let’s reverse the decisions and see what happens.
07/08/2012
EVEN 1 L 299
LOW 2 L 297
07/08/2012
LOW 3 L 294
LOW 4 W 298
ODD 3 W 301
ODD 2 L 299
ODD 3 W 302
BLACK 2 W 304
ODD 2 L 302
The wL registry now shows 4w 5L and 2 units profit >>> Even better!
Ok, I’m going to shut up now and just do battle with the Bayes RNG for a while.
Cheers. :thumbsup:
Quote from: Bayes on Jul 10, 03:53 AM 2012
Bank doubled already - impressive. :love: >>>
Long way to go Bayes. You know roulette, so you know I could unravel in a heartbeat!
Yep, it could all go down the cr*pper, win/loss ratio has been relatively good so far. So what's your long-term goal in this challenge in terms of units?
Quote from: Bayes on Jul 10, 04:22 AM 2012
Yep, it could all go down the cr*pper, win/loss ratio has been relatively good so far. So what's your long-term goal in this challenge in terms of units?
+1600
If I build my bankroll up to 1600 units then I reckon your goose is cooked, at least for a long long time, probably too long for this manual format.
-1000
If I demolish my bankroll down to -1000 units then I reckon my goose is cooked, at least for a long long time, probably too long for this manual format.
Deal?
Seems reasonable to me. :thumbsup:
Quote from: Bayes on Jul 10, 08:15 AM 2012
Seems reasonable to me. :thumbsup:
:thumbsup:
Ok, my last word for now.
This last session shows 15W 21L for +5 units.
ODD 16 W 603
07/10/2012
LOW 1 L 602
LOW 2 L 600
LOW 3 L 597
EVEN 4 L 593
EVEN 4 L 589
RED 3 L 586
RED 2 W 588
RED 2 L 586
EVEN 1 W 587
EVEN 1 L 586
EVEN 1 W 587
EVEN 1 L 586
EVEN 1 L 585
EVEN 1 W 586
EVEN 1 L 585
EVEN 1 L 584
RED 1 L 583
LOW 1 L 582
RED 2 W 584
RED 3 L 581
LOW 3 W 584
LOW 4 W 588
LOW 5 L 583
LOW 4 L 579
EVEN 4 L 575
EVEN 6 L 569
HIGH 5 W 574
HIGH 4 W 578
HIGH 4 L 574
HIGH 5 W 579
HIGH 5 W 584
BLACK 6 L 578
BLACK 6 W 584
BLACK 7 W 591
LOW 8 W 599
LOW 9 W 608
5 measly units. Pathetic!
You're a fake, skakus. ;D
Quote from: Bayes on Jul 10, 10:31 AM 2012
5 measly units. Pathetic!
You're a fake, skakus. ;D
Not if you play with 50u bet ;D
Quote from: Bayes on Jul 10, 03:53 AM 2012
Bank doubled already - impressive. :love:
Come on JL! this boy's whipping your ar*e! :xd:
No rush Bayes, The long haul. Let's see where we are six months or so from now. I don't claim to be the fastest. I claim over the long haul I will win. Something few believe possible. I will crawl my way to 350 units. And then show you something. So wait and see. I intend to beat this Rng for years to truly prove my point. And negate this. Nonsense about a method suddenly shutting up shop and going into a bankroll destroying meltdown.
Ah, the tortoise and the hare eh? Ok then. :)
Quote from: Bayes on Jul 10, 11:17 AM 2012
Ah, the tortoise and the hare eh? Ok then. :)
Must be a Canadien eh.
John just take your time. :thumbsup:
Quote from: warrior on Jul 10, 11:20 AM 2012
John just take your time. :thumbsup:
Yes Warrior I will. I will go 10 fold in bankroll eventually if I go minus 500 I will concede defeat. I think that's a fair exchange -500 or +3000 which will. Come first????
Quote from: Johnlegend on Jul 10, 11:42 AM 2012
Yes Warrior I will. I will go 10 fold in bankroll eventually if I go minus 500 I will concede defeat. I think that's a fair exchange -500 or +3000 which will. Come first? ???
I would be happy with 1u a day guaranteed. But i play with 100euros base bet :D
Quote from: Robeenhuut on Jul 10, 11:46 AM 2012
I would be happy with 1u a day guaranteed. But i play with 100euros base bet :D
I can guarantee you 3 units a day minumum Hutt.
I like charts.
Here's Skakus so far...
Here is a spreadsheet i'm using to track all this. It doesn't use any macros. Just cut and past from results page into spreadsheet using paste special (text) method. Then carry down the formulas on the right and adjust data by right clicking chart and click Select Data. Numbers on the bottom do not reflect the actual number of bets. I would need to use macros to do that.
Quote from: Skakus on Jul 10, 04:36 AM 2012
+1600
If I build my bankroll up to 1600 units then I reckon your goose is cooked, at least for a long long time, probably too long for this manual format.
-1000
If I demolish my bankroll down to -1000 units then I reckon my goose is cooked, at least for a long long time, probably too long for this manual format.
Deal?
Skakus theres no way in the world you should ever go minus 1000. You are in a position now where you shouldnt even surrender your starting BR of 300 units. If I make it to 350--400 its all over for Bayes RNG. I will never relinguish that gain. Im creeping up there at 5--10 units a day. Bayes must pray to the gods of probability and call on the ghost of Einstein. Because I have never gone backwards ever overall once I am around 400. Its the cushion that puts my methods beyond recall. And this thing you have going with the even chances is excellent. So No doubt you will get there first. But both you and I will prove roulette is beatable longterm in the future.
**** Bayes must pray to the gods of probability and call on the ghost of Einstein.****
Why?
Sam
Cool!
EC Money has made it to the first safe end zone with a bankroll of +743 units.
Next safe end zone is +1175
Next master end zone is +891 or +311
Next slave end zone is +755 or +707
New series begins with 1 unit bets. :thumbsup:
Good Job Skakus! You may become the e/c guru dujour.....looks good whatever your up to
kudus
Skakus
Good work, man! Keep us in the loop.
Sam
Quote from: TwoCatSam on Jul 10, 05:13 PM 2012
**** Bayes must pray to the gods of probability and call on the ghost of Einstein.****
Why?
Sam
Just being humourous Sam. Congrats Skakus.. I have a question. What constitutes a lost session for EC money?
Quote from: Johnlegend on Jul 11, 01:55 AM 2012
>>> Skakus.. I have a question. What constitutes a lost session for EC money?
It’s hard to explain because for EC Money the 'session' is ruled by the win target/stop-loss.
So the betting for any ‘session’ can and often does involve split permanence, meaning the session could be on several different wheels, or involve many stop start points on the same wheel, or both.
All that is a bit of a grey area, but the win target/stop-loss for any ‘session’ is rigid.
Stage 1 is +12 or -36
Stage 2 is +24 or -72
Stage 3 is +36 or -108
Stage 4 is +48 or -144
Stage 5 is +60 or â€" 180
These are only my chosen amounts and by no means gospel.
If I win a minimum of 12 units playing stage 1, the session is over. Same if I lose 36 units.
I will note whether the session was won or lost with a w or L.
I will then move to stage 2 for the next session, etc.
The wL registry for the session results follow the same progression format as the individual bets do in any session.
So it moves up and down the Stage Table depending on the previous completed sessions results.
Session result example:
WWWLWLLLW = 123434322 next session stage 3, etc.
LLLWLWWWL = 123434322 next session stage 3, etc.
But this all ends and restarts at Stage 1 when you reach a master end zone win goal/stop-loss, which is +144 units or -432 units.
Here is a Stage 2 lost session that I uploaded today. Start bank 755, stage 2 stop-loss -72 units. Should stop at 683 units. I made a few mistakes (again) and it cost me 18 more units than It should have, but I'll get 'em back!
ODD 6 W 755
07/11/2012
BLACK 2 L 753
BLACK 4 L 749
LOW 6 W 755
LOW 4 W 759
LOW 4 W 763
RED 6 W 769
RED 8 L 761
RED 6 L 755
EVEN 6 L 749
HIGH 8 L 741
HIGH 10 W 751
HIGH 8 L 743
ODD 10 L 733
ODD 12 L 721
LOW 12 W 733
LOW 12 W 745
LOW 8 W 753
LOW 6 L 747
RED 8 L 739
LOW 10 L 729
LOW 10 L 719
LOW 10 L 709
RED 10 L 699
EVEN 10 L 689
EVEN 10 W 699
EVEN 2 L 697
LOW 2 L 695
RED 2 W 697
RED 4 W 701
RED 6 L 695
RED 4 L 691
LOW 4 L 687
RED 6 L 681
RED 8 W 689
RED 6 L 683
HIGH 8 L 675
BLACK 10 L 665
Strike rate 53%
Bank balance 776
I hope you're watching this cheese, give me 72% and I'll get us both banned for life! >:D
Quote from: Skakus on Jul 11, 02:45 AM 2012
It’s hard to explain because for EC Money the 'session' is ruled by the win target/stop-loss.
So the betting for any ‘session’ can and often does involve split permanence, meaning the session could be on several different wheels, or involve many stop start points on the same wheel, or both.
All that is a bit of a grey area, but the win target/stop-loss for any ‘session’ is rigid.
Stage 1 is +12 or -36
Stage 2 is +24 or -72
Stage 3 is +36 or -108
Stage 4 is +48 or -144
Stage 5 is +60 or â€" 180
These are only my chosen amounts and by no means gospel.
If I win a minimum of 12 units playing stage 1, the session is over. Same if I lose 36 units.
I will note whether the session was won or lost with a w or L.
I will then move to stage 2 for the next session, etc.
The wL registry for the session results follow the same progression format as the individual bets do in any session.
So it moves up and down the Stage Table depending on the previous completed sessions results.
Session result example:
WWWLWLLLW = 123434322 next session stage 3, etc.
LLLWLWWWL = 123434322 next session stage 3, etc.
But this all ends and restarts at Stage 1 when you reach a master end zone win goal/stop-loss, which is +144 units or -432 units.
Here is a Stage 2 lost session that I uploaded today. Start bank 755, stage 2 stop-loss -72 units. Should stop at 683 units. I made a few mistakes (again) and it cost me 18 more units than It should have, but I'll get 'em back!
ODD 6 W 755
07/11/2012
BLACK 2 L 753
BLACK 4 L 749
LOW 6 W 755
LOW 4 W 759
LOW 4 W 763
RED 6 W 769
RED 8 L 761
RED 6 L 755
EVEN 6 L 749
HIGH 8 L 741
HIGH 10 W 751
HIGH 8 L 743
ODD 10 L 733
ODD 12 L 721
LOW 12 W 733
LOW 12 W 745
LOW 8 W 753
LOW 6 L 747
RED 8 L 739
LOW 10 L 729
LOW 10 L 719
LOW 10 L 709
RED 10 L 699
EVEN 10 L 689
EVEN 10 W 699
EVEN 2 L 697
LOW 2 L 695
RED 2 W 697
RED 4 W 701
RED 6 L 695
RED 4 L 691
LOW 4 L 687
RED 6 L 681
RED 8 W 689
RED 6 L 683
HIGH 8 L 675
BLACK 10 L 665
Okay you must play this for real money if its doing so well fot you. 72% strikerate consistently I'm doubtful. Evem 62% would be out of this world. Whoever this cheese is, he must be very wealthy. I aim for around break even. Hit and run will then often give me better numbers, and staking does the rest.
Quote from: Skakus on Jul 11, 06:32 AM 2012
Strike rate 53%
Bank balance 776
I hope you're watching this cheese, give me 72% and I'll get us both banned for life! >:D
Current z-score is 1.57 (probability is about 1 in 17). Seeing as you're doing so well, would you consider aiming for a higher target? It'll be interesting to see what the z-score is after a few thousand bets (485 so far). JL reckons he can get to 5000 units. If (and it's a big if) you continue to do as well as you've been doing, that should only take a couple of weeks. :)
No need to play every day, take your time.
Quote from: Bayes on Jul 11, 01:40 PM 2012
Current z-score is 1.57 (probability is about 1 in 17). Seeing as you're doing so well, would you consider aiming for a higher target? It'll be interesting to see what the z-score is after a few thousand bets (485 so far). JL reckons he can get to 5000 units. If (and it's a big if) you continue to do as well as you've been doing, that should only take a couple of weeks. :)
No need to play every day, take your time.
Yes I agree Bayes 1,600 is a nice sum but it wont really prove if Skakus or myself would beat this game longterm. I think -500----5000 minumum should be our targets. I know im moving at snail pace at the moment. Once I reach my zone of 350---400 units. I will start to take off. Aiming for 30----50 units a session. Then 50----80 when I reach 750----800 units. To be fair to you and all the work you have put in with this marvellous software. I think thats a fair trade -500 means we have failed. And a minumum of 5,000 units plus means. I would even say 10,000 should signal. We have succeeded. What do you think Bayes. -500---+10,000????
Skakus, u still don't believe in hit-run? u r doing great with it...But was it not worth to cut the last bad session short to make it hit-n-run?
I want to express my respect for what u achieved, but u mostly did it with hit-n-run, didn't u?
iggiv,
I just lost another session that looks like I could have cut it short with a profit.
But it only looks like that. Just because you see a long betting session in one upload doesn't mean it was only one betting session. The one I just lost had 4 short sessions of betting with up to 100 spins in between them.
I'm just experimenting with different ways to play, that's all.
Bayes,
>>> Current z-score is 1.57 (probability is about 1 in 17). <<<
Does that mean my results thus far is almost the same as if I had just put one big bet on 1 split and won? If so, then I'm in trouble despite the good start.
If its the other way around and its almost the same as if I had put one big bet on 35 numbers, then I might be able to claw my way to victory, but it will be tough, very tough.
I'm going to take a break from it for a day or so, the last few lost sessions have knocked the wind out of my sails.
u r still doin good...
but looks like nothing can beat a good bet selection, even smart progression use like u r doin. I don't wanna sound negative. Just my thoughts. I hope and wish u get high up back again! U r still very much up, 2 bankrolls in your pocket, nothing to complain about...
To be honest, to run EC Money over 5 stages requires a bigger lifetime bankroll than I have here. The last lost game was at stage 5 of the betting, which was a very expensive loss. So I've been lucky to get away with it this far.
I'm thinking of compressing the stages back to only 3.
Losses will be less costly, and lost ground easier to make up. I'll think about the best way to do it for a while then get back to betting.
Quote from: Skakus on Jul 11, 09:40 PM 2012
I'm just experimenting with different ways to play, that's all.
Bayes,
>>> Current z-score is 1.57 (probability is about 1 in 17). <<<
Does that mean my results thus far is almost the same as if I had just put one big bet on 1 split and won? If so, then I'm in trouble despite the good start.
If its the other way around and its almost the same as if I had put one big bet on 35 numbers, then I might be able to claw my way to victory, but it will be tough, very tough.
You can't really make those kinds of comparisons. IF your bet selection has no advantage, then the average of the z-scores will tend towards zero, in the same way that over time the ratio of reds to blacks tends to 1. If the bet selection gives a flat bet advantage, no matter how small, then the z-score will increase as you make more bets, but the bottom line is, are you making a profit?
If you're just experimenting, then just carry on as you are, don't read too much into the z-score at this stage. It's not as if you have something to prove, like JL does.
How do I get those test numbers Bayes,as wish to test on your numbers.
I'm working on a more sophisticated spreadsheet to track all of this; charts and stats.
One click does all.
Any number of participants.
It'll query the web, run calculations, and make charts.
Will need to know how to calculate the Z-Score.
Any other stats anyone wants to know PM me.
It can calculate stats on an isolated period in the overall string of bets...and chart it.
Proposed Stats:
Name
Description
Start_Date
Last_Date
Days
Sessions
Bets
Balance_Start
Balance_End
Balance_Flat
High_Managed
Low_Managed
High_Flat
Low_Flat
Units_Bet_Largest
Units_Bet_Average
Average_Units_Gain_Per_Bet
Avg_Win
Avg_Loss
Avg_Sessions_Per_Day
Avg_Bets_Per_Session
Bets_Since_Last_Refresh
Quote from: F_LAT_INO on Jul 12, 03:18 AM 2012
How do I get those test numbers Bayes,as wish to test on your numbers.
FLAT,
In the JL Challenge thread: link:://rouletteforum.cc/index.php?topic=9697.0 (link:://rouletteforum.cc/index.php?topic=9697.0)
In reply #4 I uploaded a couple of thousand spins generated by the RNG. Or you can download a version of the software in reply #146.
Quote from: Skakus on Jul 12, 12:34 AM 2012
I'm thinking of compressing the stages back to only 3.
Good idea. :thumbsup:
Also, in my humble opinion, I would go easy on increasing the stakes too much after wins. I know a lot of people think that it's safer, but it really isn't. I keep the D'Alembert principle in mind at all times: every pair of W/L gives you 1 unit. Depending on how much I'm down and what my target is (in units per X spins - and this is flexible), I would use the different stages to recover the losses and achieve my target.
But, feel free to ignore any of the above. ;D
Hi Still,
Thanks for offering to write the spreadsheet.
Can I suggest you post it in the main JL challenge thread? link:://rouletteforum.cc/index.php?topic=9697.195 (link:://rouletteforum.cc/index.php?topic=9697.195)
After all, my challenge and this thread are only an aside to JL’s challenge.
Thanks again for your input.
FINALLY!
At long last I have broken through the 900 units barrier today! I hope I can continue to go up from here with a slight increase in stakes from this point. :D
CRUD!
Every time I open my mouth I get beaten to a pulp by this game! LoL!
Got to +900 units then hit 2 wipeout sequences in a row that dropped me back to 654 units. Have since clawed it back to 735 units on the back of a 10 in a row win streak!
I just checked my wL registry and it shows 2590 total bets for 1307 wins and 1283 losses.
That's a flat bet profit of 24 units or .92%. I'll take that I guess.
The EC Money Management plan must be doing something right because the actual profit is 435 units. I haven't bothered to calculate the profit %, but it's likely to be a similar figure to the flat bet amount of .92%, but I hope it's at least a little bit more otherwise what's the point?
My z-score is about 1.9 I'll take that too I guess.
:)
CRUD! Every time I open my mouth I get beaten to a pulp by this game! LoL!
That's funny Skakus. Makes ya think. Sometimes during testing by hand I think to myself this method is about to start losing and it does. Usually around its averages.
Can I find what method you are playing anywhere? Might have missed something. Hope we see JLs new playing style soon as well.
By the way, is your avatar from the old time machine movie?
Quote from: amk on Jul 31, 07:29 PM 2012
CRUD! Every time I open my mouth I get beaten to a pulp by this game! LoL!
That's funny Skakus. Makes ya think. Sometimes during testing by hand I think to myself this method is about to start losing and it does. Usually around its averages.
Yes it makes you wonder.
Can I find what method you are playing anywhere? Might have missed something. Hope we see JLs new playing style soon as well.
I'm playing a combination of up to 4 EC methods. Usually 1, often 2, sometimes 3, and very occassionally 4. Sorry, you won't find any of them on the forum. Well I did mention one of them once, but only fleetingly.
By the way, is your avatar from the old time machine movie?
Yes it is a Morlock! Mwahahahaha!
May I ask if the EC methods are flat betting or perhaps some of them etc... I think I might see something....
Morlocks are deceptively cleaver :)
Quote from: amk on Jul 31, 07:46 PM 2012
May I ask if the EC methods are flat betting or perhaps some of them etc... I think I might see something....
amk, you could play them all flat betting. Tell us what you think you see?
Morlocks are deceptively cleaver :)
Scary too!
I tallied the betting up to the point of my previous post.
Factored Flat Bet:
Total outlay: 24704 units / 2590 bets = 9.54 units per bet average.
9.54 units x 1307 wins = 24937 units: Profit = 233 units: % = .93%
EC Money:
Total outlay: 24704 units / 2590 bets = 9.54 units per bet average.
Total return: 25139 units: Profit = 435 units: % = 1.76%.
So flat bets have earned about .93% while EC Money has earned 1.76%. Almost double.
I was hoping for a better edge than 1.76% but at least it has increased performance over flat betting so far.
I've taken some chances and luckily reached 1000 units.
I've made some changes to the betting format, and now that I have a healthy bankroll will reduce the bets from this point, and just plod forward or backward from here.
I would normally increase the bets, but the 50 unit limit for this challenge is a bit too small for the new format so I might as well reduce the bets and just coast along.
well done Skakus :thumbsup:
what betting format do you use now ?
Quote from: Stepkevh on Aug 03, 12:32 AM 2012
well done Skakus
what betting format do you use now ?
You know this is very tricky, and we must remember that the main point of the challenge for me is simply to beat this rng, but at the same time I am trying to “keep it real†for future practicality of use, so I’m still trying to figure out the best parameters for the betting formula.
At the moment I am shooting for +12 units for each mini session. Each time I reach a new bankroll high I am resetting the selection methods, whether by reset then play on, or both reset and reboot program then play on.
Also, each time the wL registry goes +5 for either W or L, I am resetting the selection methods, whether by reset then play on, or both reset and reboot program then play on.
At this point I am struggling with the best stop loss amount. Presently I have it set at -108 units, but I’m not convinced about it at all. I might at some point play on up to the limit of 50 units to see if that makes any difference (Run From Hell killer stuff), but I’m really not sure which way to turn this thing. I think a ‘random stop loss’ is my next point of focus.
Funny, I’m miles in front but can sense defeat just around the corner!
Quote from: Skakus on Aug 03, 03:09 AM 2012
You know this is very tricky, and we must remember that the main point of the challenge for me is simply to beat this rng, but at the same time I am trying to “keep it real†for future practicality of use, so I’m still trying to figure out the best parameters for the betting formula.
At the moment I am shooting for +12 units for each mini session. Each time I reach a new bankroll high I am resetting the selection methods, whether by reset then play on, or both reset and reboot program then play on.
Also, each time the wL registry goes +5 for either W or L, I am resetting the selection methods, whether by reset then play on, or both reset and reboot program then play on.
At this point I am struggling with the best stop-loss amount. Presently I have it set at -108 units, but I’m not convinced about it at all. I might at some point play on up to the limit of 50 units to see if that makes any difference (Run From Hell killer stuff), but I’m really not sure which way to turn this thing. I think a ‘random stop-loss’ is my next point of focus.
Funny, I’m miles in front but can sense defeat just around the corner!
Don't even think like that Skakus. There is no way you should even fall below 500 points now.When I was at 57 units I thought about you. I said to myself I should be up there with Skakus not down here. By next Wednesday I am aiming to join you.
by the way what part of the world are you from Australia?? As your last game registered 04/08/12 and its still the 3rd in London. Keep it going.
JL
So you're from London!
One of my best vacations was to see The London Bridge.
I hear Brian Williams of NBC Nightly News refer to youse guys as "Brits". Is that an offensive term? How about "bloke"? Skakus, what's a "cobber"?
Sam
Quote from: TwoCatSam on Aug 03, 06:16 PM 2012
JL
So you're from London!
One of my best vacations was to see The London Bridge.
I hear Brian Williams of NBC Nightly News refer to youse guys as "Brits". Is that an offensive term? How about "bloke"? Skakus, what's a "cobber"?
Sam
Yes I am from London Sam. Have lived here all my life. No Brits isnt offensive. Limey as You Americans often refer to us could be. But I am not bothered anyhow. I am of mixed heritage anyhow. Irish, Indian and Norwegian flows through my blood.
Hi,sorry to jump in Sam,im a Brit living in Oklahoma(112 today in the shade),
We are not affended being called 'Brits ;) ;) ;) ;)
Been called a lot worse... :o :o
Bloke=Guy,fella,chap,Geezer....
Enjoying the games from the 'smoke'(London) here in Oklahoma.
Thanks, JL. My ancestry is actually English, so I just wanted to know if I offended myself!
I am a bit "limey" when I drink rum and coke. And I love tea enough to be a "tea bag" although I drink Oolong!!
Indian? I love chicken korma. Not Karma! I don't know if chickens even have Karma!
Good to have a nice chat wit ya!
Sam
holy
Yes! When Marcia and I went to lunch/supper, the car's thermo read 120!!
How in the world did you ever get here? What part of the state?
Sam
Long story Sam..
Married a Michigan girl,(sadly now divorced)How she ended up here is another long story.
Been here 11 years Sept 1st 2012..no,i don't say 'yall' yet.,,lol :P
ps..i live in Beckam County on the Famous Route 66 ...Elk City
Keep cool neighbour.
Check this out >>> 16 wins in a row! :) I must be doing something right. :)
BLACK 22 L 1064
EVEN 21 W 1085
HIGH 22 W 1107
08/07/2012 RED 7 W 1114
08/07/2012 ODD 8 W 1122
08/08/2012 HIGH 3 W 1125
08/08/2012 ODD 4 W 1129
08/08/2012 BLACK 5 W 1134
08/08/2012 BLACK 1 W 1135
08/08/2012 LOW 2 W 1137
08/08/2012 BLACK 3 W 1140
08/08/2012 BLACK 4 W 1144
08/08/2012 EVEN 4 W 1148
08/08/2012 HIGH 2 W 1150
08/08/2012 RED 3 W 1153
08/08/2012 LOW 4 W 1157
08/08/2012 RED 5 W 1162
Got to 19 wins in a row before a loss. That's a record for me.
What are the odds of that?
Hello Skakus! How do you play? Thanks.
Congratulations! Somethings going on here.
Quote from: Skakus on Aug 07, 09:42 PM 2012
Got to 19 wins in a row before a loss. That's a record for me.
What are the odds of that?
Just seen this - impressive! :o it beats my personal best of 17 consecutive wins.
EVEN 21 W 1085
HIGH 22 W 1107
08/07/2012
RED 7 W 1114
08/07/2012
ODD 8 W 1122
08/08/2012
HIGH 3 W 1125
08/08/2012
ODD 4 W 1129
08/08/2012
BLACK 5 W 1134
08/08/2012
BLACK 1 W 1135
08/08/2012
LOW 2 W 1137
08/08/2012
BLACK 3 W 1140
08/08/2012
BLACK 4 W 1144
08/08/2012
EVEN 4 W 1148
08/08/2012
HIGH 2 W 1150
08/08/2012
RED 3 W 1153
08/08/2012
LOW 4 W 1157
08/08/2012
RED 5 W 1162
08/08/2012
HIGH 2 W 1164
08/08/2012
ODD 3 W 1167
08/08/2012
HIGH 4 W 1171
Probability is (18/37)
19 or 1 in 882,000
z-score 2.54 @ 3,782 bets. 8)
The chance is of course minimal, but anybody follow a color,usually bet as long it lasts, and then the wheel show the path in some way. Random do it is mathematical the same, but in real life probably very rare. My record (I do not always count) were 16 when I got 18 blacks and follow the color using a progression add a fraction on win,
For anyone interested,
This challenge has been tough work. So far I placed 4054 EC bets for 2049 wins and 2005 losses.
Flat bet profit is 44 units. EC Money profit is 755 units.
I am getting a bit tired of the bankroll bobbing up and down at the same level because of 108 unit session losses, so for the next few attempts I might eliminate the stop-loss, which is currently set at 108 units, and just progress the bets all the way to the 50 unit challenge limit.
It is risky, but If my z-score, which is currently 2.47 is worth anything then I might just be lucky enough to burst through any scary drawdowns.
I’ve given this a good crack, I may not have conclusively beaten it, but Bayes RNG has definitely struggled to beat me. If I go belly up from here, I’m still happy with my performance in this challenge.
If I go broke then so be it. If I get to 5000 units then I’ll claim a victory. But my main hope is to get the z-score out of the interval of chance, so if I can get it above 3 and it keeps rising a little bit after that then I’ll claim a victory despite whatever the bankroll is.
So now I’ll try and recover every session from here on in. If I hit the table limit and I’m still down then I’ll cop the loss.
Like I said it is risky, and I don’t won’t to lose this fun money challenge, so I am going to test this out first with real money on my DB account! ;D ;D ;D
4182 bets
2120 wins
2.7 z-score :)
Could I clarify something?
You're just using JLs w/l record and your money management?
Where is the latest on JL? Where are you reading it?
Sam
Sam I like all your posting!!
Thanks, Ralph.
But remember.............
I'm a lot like broccoli--not everyone likes me!!
:'(
Samster
Sam, lucky you, i like brocolli :)
Quote from: TwoCatSam on Aug 10, 10:14 AM 2012
Could I clarify something?
You're just using JLs w/l record and your money management?
Where is the latest on JL? Where are you reading it?
Sam
No Sam, that ended very quickly.
This is my own challenge against the rng. My own selections (EC's) only, my own MM, and my own results.
JL is mainly playing dozens with the odd EC session.
Cheers.
By the way, I've now quadrupled my bankroll! :thumbsup:
link:://:.gigabean.co.uk/s_test.html (link:://:.gigabean.co.uk/s_test.html)
Thanks for that!
Good fortune and full speed ahead!
Sam
It was looking like Skakus was using some sort of ladder D'alembert where he might play up or down according to the way he set it .....hes a crazy kid that Skakus!! Hey but you can't knock a winner, any chance of balancing the USA budget Skakus?
***any chance of balancing the USA budget Skakus?***
Even Skakus couldn't do that.
TCS
15 + Trillion Dollar debt, no chance of God balancing that !!!!
Funny the debt was ONLY 1 + Trillion in 1995.
Just a thought.
Try this>>> STOP BORROWING MONEY TO GAMBLE WITH!
There. If USA does this then they might turn the budget around eventually. :)
-------------------------------------
As of now, same as JL, I am playing the challenge with Bayes' new encrypted software. This means there will be no more results uploaded to the results web page, and Bayes intends to remove it soon so you should copy/paste the results if you want to save them for any reason.
Here is the link one last time.
link:://:.gigabean.co.uk/s_test.html (link:://:.gigabean.co.uk/s_test.html)
Cheers.
but will u and JL keep posting your results here?
Hi iggiv,
JL might continue to post results but I'm not going to bother.
It is my understanding that Bayes will be publishing official results for both of us once a week or so on the forum.
I might post my bankroll & z-score every now and then.
Current Bank 1263 units.
Bets 4235 Wins 2151 Losses 2084
Z-score 2.85
Cheers.
good for u Skakus!
Thanks iggiv.
Sadly the new format for this challenge is too buggy on my computer so Bayes has agreed to let me carry on using the original online upload results format. I prefer it anyway, except that now I'm stuck with the 50 unit limit (JL has a 100 unit limit) so I can't up the ante and will have to just plod along as is.
I'll have to drop some of my winnings and go back to the online bankroll, oh well, it wasn't much, almost 100 units.
I still might try dropping the stop-loss, but I haven't had the guts yet. ;D
So my results will continue to be uploaded to the web link in reply #95, as they happen.
PS. I'M WINNING! :thumbsup:
For what its worth I'm now at 1517 uints.
EC Bets 4498
Win 2300
Loss 2198
Flat Bet +102
z-score 3.4 :)
For what its worth I'm now at 1659 uints ;D
EC Bets 4708
Win 2411
Loss 2297
Flat Bet +114
z-score 3.58 (link:://rouletteforum.cc/Smileys/default/smiley.gif)
I'm getting stronger!
Good work, Skakus!
Quote from: TwoCatSam on Aug 20, 06:18 AM 2012
Good work, Skakus!
Thanks Sam.
For what its worth I'm now at 1822 uints (link:://rouletteforum.cc/Smileys/default/grin.gif)
EC Bets 4907
Win 2517
Loss 2390
Flat Bet +127
z-score 3.77
8) :thumbsup:
Quotez-score 3.77
Almost there mate, good luck for the other .23
That Skakus and his magic chart--go for it
Quote from: Skakus on Jul 03, 07:48 AM 2012
If it shows enough promise as the test matures then I will explain the process. If not, then I will shove it where the sun don't shine! :D
Is your post at #52 the basics for your success thus far?
Just curious Skakus, are playing strict mechanical rules or varying your selection on what's happening?
I wondered the same thing, he told me not strictly mechanical but some "educated guessing" a la Spike. :P
Quote from: Wally Gator on Aug 26, 01:23 AM 2012
Is your post at #52 the basics for your success thus far?
Hi Wally G.
One of my favourite childhood cartoons, by the way.
The bet selection is the same, the progression is the same, but I dropped the stages and now just play the 1 level.
The stages explained in post #52 were too constricted, and were costing me too many lost sessions. I wasn’t making any headway because I wasn’t giving the system enough chance to grind out of many short negative fluctuations.
How I’m playing now is probably still not ideal, but it’s much better than before.
I’m now resetting the game on +12 or -108 units, whichever comes first. I would have increased the unit size a while ago because I only need a 320 unit bank for this level of play, but the 50 unit per bet challenge limit has restricted any proportionate stake increase. Not to worry because the bankroll is not so important to me anyway.
One other mod I’ve introduced is to begin each new session with any extra chips won or saved from the previous session. So I don’t always start a new session with 1 unit. If I won 18 units in the previous session I will begin the next session with 6 units. If I’m losing 100 units and the next bet is 16 units I will reduce the bet to 8 units. If I lose the next bet I will end the game at -108 and begin the next session with the 8 units saved from the previous loss.
Cheers.
Quote from: Skakus on Aug 26, 06:18 AM 2012
Hi Wally G.
One of my favourite childhood cartoons, by the way.
The bet selection is the same, the progression is the same, but I dropped the stages and now just play the 1 level.
The stages explained in post #52 were too constricted, and were costing me too many lost sessions. I wasn’t making any headway because I wasn’t giving the system enough chance to grind out of many short negative fluctuations.
How I’m playing now is probably still not ideal, but it’s much better than before.
I’m now resetting the game on +12 or -108 units, whichever comes first. I would have increased the unit size a while ago because I only need a 320 unit bank for this level of play, but the 50 unit per bet challenge limit has restricted any proportionate stake increase. Not to worry because the bankroll is not so important to me anyway.
One other mod I’ve introduced is to begin each new session with any extra chips won or saved from the previous session. So I don’t always start a new session with 1 unit. If I won 18 units in the previous session I will begin the next session with 6 units. If I’m losing 100 units and the next bet is 16 units I will reduce the bet to 8 units. If I lose the next bet I will end the game at -108 and begin the next session with the 8 units saved from the previous loss.
Cheers.
I like your staking plan. Keep it up ;D
Quote from: superman on Aug 26, 03:23 AM 2012
Just curious Skakus, are playing strict mechanical rules or varying your selection on what's happening?
I’m playing strict mechanical rules with a strict money management strategy.
The MM is 100% strict, and the bet selection is 90-95% strict.
The bet selections come from two separate systems. The first system is the dominant selector. The second system is for making bets when the first system is in downtime.
Whenever the two systems select an opposite EC I don’t bet. Whenever this happens and I don’t bet but the dominant system would have won, I will go into an educated guess mode for the next bet/bets, which could mean skipping over one or more selections, and very rarely betting opposite one or more selections.
The educated guessing component is very minimal and probably complete bollocks anyway, it’s just a feel good thing I think, so the mechanical aspects of this system could likely be coded 100% with the results remaining virtually unaffected.
Would you be interested in working on a bot at some time in the future? >>> it won’t be easy.
Quote from: Bayes on Aug 26, 04:44 AM 2012
>>> not strictly mechanical but some "educated guessing" a la Spike. :P
That's very cheesy. ???
Quote from: Skakus on Aug 26, 06:51 AM 2012
That's very cheesy. ???
No offence meant, I only said it because Spike coined the phrase. In fact, it doesn't really say what he intended it to mean (that he uses no mechanical system). You could say that in a sense many mechanical systems are educated guessing, and the rest aren't "educated" by anything. ;D
The idea of educated guessing, in the sense he intended it to mean, is incoherent. What Spike seems to be saying is that he uses past spins to inform his bets, but that there are no rules in which to interpret that history, and no triggers are possible (because it's all random). For example, he often said if he came across exactly the same set of spins as in a previous session, he wouldn't bet the same way. But if there are no rules which can tell you which past spins indicate future spins (and what those future spins are likely to be), then it would be impossible to get any advantage, much less the 72% win rate which he claims.
No offence taken. I was playing on the spike/cheese thing. ;D
I can't speak for spike but I think he meant that he could select different bets for identical sets of spins because his main goal is to reach +5 or +6 units per session and the chance of picking the right bet is always 50/50 so don't sweat it if you pick wrong or pick different, as long as you get to +5 or 6.
Quote from: Skakus on Aug 26, 09:23 AM 2012
No offence taken. I was playing on the spike/cheese thing. ;D
D'oh! I missed that. ;D
Thing is, he lead people a merry dance for a long time, and EDAM well knows it. :xd:
QuoteWould you be interested in working on a bot at some time in the future? >>> it won’t be easy.
Nothing you sent me in the past was easy either LOL I still have some front ends to rebuild since my HDD crash but that wont stop me as I already have BVNZ up and running, also have the file feeder redone to so can import any txt file spins, so yes Danny, you know how to get me on email.
so your just using 12345678910 and going back to beginning on a bustout of 100 plus? but skakus doesnt use a classic on this he sometimes goes up or down? Im assuming straight up on a win or loss till plus 5
Quote from: Bayes on Aug 26, 09:57 AM 2012
Thing is, he lead people a merry dance for a long time, and EDAM well knows it. :xd:
Touche' ;D
For what its worth I'm now at 1852 uints
EC Bets 5237
Win 2681
Loss 2556
Flat Bet +125
z-score 3.76
Previous update was 9 days ago. I've made 330 bets since then and have only managed to win another 30 units. That's because I"ve had several 108 unit busts in that time.
Over the whole test I would think I've had more than a dozen, and may be even 20 or so busts. I wish my system would never lose like JL's because then I'd have about 3800 units instead of 1800 units. ;)
My flat bet score has gone down 2 units over the last 330 bets, and the z-score dropped away slightly, but has picked back up to where it was.
I am thinking very hard about doubling all future bets, so I have attached all my results to this point.
If you go to the result,
08/15/2012
LOW 7 W 1300
That is the point where I gave JL the online program and started betting with the encrypted program. There is a 68 unit discrepancy at this point because Bayes sent me the new program with the current balance, but I played on for a little while before I got it. I reached 1300 units by the time I got the new software so I have just been adding 68 units to the total as I go.
Cheers.
Quote from: Tomla021 on Aug 26, 11:37 AM 2012
so your just using 12345678910 and going back to beginning on a bustout of 100 plus? but skakus doesn't use a classic on this he sometimes goes up or down? I'm assuming straight up on a win or loss till plus 5
I’m using 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13.. etc, up and down until I win 12 units or lose 108 units.
The second bet of every new session is +1 by default, because I follow the wL registry to decide if the bet goes up or down.
If W is leading then W is +1 and L is -1.
If L is leading then L is +1 and W is -1.
I do this until either W or L are leading by 4, then I hold the next bet at the same level.
If W or L are leading by 5, then I hold the next bet at the same level and also dump the wL registry and start a new one.
Then I go +1 by default on the next bet, then go +1 or -1 depending on which is leading the wL registry.
Whenever I win more than 12 units I start the next session with the extra chips.
Whenever I’m close to losing 108 units I will reduce the next bet so that if it loses I don’t go over 108 units, then if it loses will start the next session with any extra chips saved from the previous session. If the reduced bet wins then I will continue on at that reduced level going +1 or -1 as per wL registry.
That’s the whole shebang for the MM.
Example:
1 w1 +1 w leads by 1
2 w2 +1 w leads by 2
3 L1 -1 w leads by 1
2 L2 hold wL equal so next bet hold
2 L3 +1 L leads by 1
3 L4 +1 L leads by 2
4 L5 +1 L leads by 3
5 L6 hold L leads by 4 so next bet hold
5 L7 hold&dump L leads by 5 so next bet hold and wL registry dumped
5 w1 +1 w leads by 1
6 w2 +1 w leads by 2
7 w3 +1 w leads by 3
8 L1 -1 w leads by 2
7 w4 +1 w leads by 3
8 w5 hold w leads by 4 so next bet hold
8 L2 -1 w leads by 3
7 L3 -1 w leads by 2
6 w6 +1 w leads by 3
7 w7 hold w leads by 4 so next bet hold
7 w8 hold&dump w leads by 5 so next bet hold and wL registry dumped
7 L1 +1 L leads by 1
8 w1 hold wL equal so hold next bet
8 w2 +1 w leads by 1
9 w3 +1 w leads by 2
So on and so forth until I win 12+ units or lose 108 units. :thumbsup:
@Skakus
Very good! And thanks for the methodology.
I think this is worth charting.
How can i obtain the data so that i can chart it in Excel?
Thanks!
Hi Still,
Is the attached .txt file no good for charting?
Oops I didn't see that. Yes thats fine. Chart should be up shortly.
This looks really good! I offset the initial 300 unit bankroll to start the chart at zero, and show only PROFIT. After a few wicked drawdowns, it looks like Skakus found his legs at around bet #2800 and again at #4000. @Skakus: are these about the times you made adjustments in your approach?
[attachimg=1]
Hi Still.
Thanks for the chart, yes it does look good. :thumbsup:
Yes, around 2800 I got sick of flat lining so I made the changes. From the data I had accumulated the changes were necessary, and obvious.
Not sure about the 4000 benchmark, but I suspect it could have something to do with the guessing component of my play. Up to then I was infrequently guessing whether or not to bet, and even when to bet opposite the selections. Around the 4000 mark I felt the guessing part was getting too inflated, and I would dearly love this system to work on a purely mechanical basis so I made a conscious effort to minimize the guessing part since then.
It is interesting to see in the chart that the guessing component of my play might have actually been helping more than I thought.
Cheers, and thanks again for your input.
Good job Skakus, was hoping to see the z score move up closer to 4 but as you had the bunch of losses, getting back to where you were is still an achievment, well done buddy
Thanks superduper!
I've had 2 more losses today since posting so a z-score of 4 is still a ways off! :(
Thanks for explaining the MM ---Pretty interesting and now I have an idea
much appreciated Skakus
reread your mm and it seems very good on all sorts of bets... testing some baccarat now
Yes it should be good for bac, just remember you need to be picking close to 50% correct for this MM to hold. You can pick less but not much less.
It does seem to work well with other bets and I have a system called Gigantor that uses this MM on dozens columns sixlines streets and splits all at the sme time!
You can play one or all or any combination of these table layout bets, but to play them all or even several you would need a bot (run away superman, runaway!) hehehehe!
Quote from: Skakus on Aug 28, 11:24 PM 2012
I’m using 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13.. etc, up and down until I win 12 units or lose 108 units.
The second bet of every new session is +1 by default, because I follow the wL registry to decide if the bet goes up or down.
If W is leading then W is +1 and L is -1.
If L is leading then L is +1 and W is -1.
I do this until either W or L are leading by 4, then I hold the next bet at the same level.
If W or L are leading by 5, then I hold the next bet at the same level and also dump the wL registry and start a new one.
Then I go +1 by default on the next bet, then go +1 or -1 depending on which is leading the wL registry.
Whenever I win more than 12 units I start the next session with the extra chips.
Whenever I’m close to losing 108 units I will reduce the next bet so that if it loses I don’t go over 108 units, then if it loses will start the next session with any extra chips saved from the previous session. If the reduced bet wins then I will continue on at that reduced level going +1 or -1 as per wL registry.
That’s the whole shebang for the MM.
Example:
1 w1 +1 w leads by 1
2 w2 +1 w leads by 2
3 L1 -1 w leads by 1
2 L2 hold wL equal so next bet hold
2 L3 +1 L leads by 1
3 L4 +1 L leads by 2
4 L5 +1 L leads by 3
5 L6 hold L leads by 4 so next bet hold
5 L7 hold&dump L leads by 5 so next bet hold and wL registry dumped
5 w1 +1 w leads by 1
6 w2 +1 w leads by 2
7 w3 +1 w leads by 3
8 L1 -1 w leads by 2
7 w4 +1 w leads by 3
8 w5 hold w leads by 4 so next bet hold
8 L2 -1 w leads by 3
7 L3 -1 w leads by 2
6 w6 +1 w leads by 3
7 w7 hold w leads by 4 so next bet hold
7 w8 hold&dump w leads by 5 so next bet hold and wL registry dumped
7 L1 +1 L leads by 1
8 w1 hold wL equal so hold next bet
8 w2 +1 w leads by 1
9 w3 +1 w leads by 2
So on and so forth until I win 12+ units or lose 108 units. :thumbsup:
I've decided starting new sessions with extra won or saved chips is not such a good idea, because it moves the goal posts too much in regard to the stop-loss settings, so scrap that. Just play new games from 1 unit regardless.
Cheers.
Skakus nice idea changing from negative to positive progressions.Lets see how it would hold with my bot.
I'm now at 1870 uints
EC Bets 5423
Win 2784
Loss 2639
Flat Bet +145
z-score 4.03 :o
Wow! After more than 5400 placed bets I have achieved a z-score of +4 playing the ECs. I didn't expect that when I started this challenge. :thumbsup: I'm going after 5! >:D
I would like to share this system but am of the opinion that it is in the too hard basket when it comes to explaining how to do it, so I'll just play on and let everyone continue with their own ideas, or follow their own guru's ideas.
Thank you very much and good night!
Bravo! :love:
Skakus 1870 JohnLegend 2012 Google 685.09 Microsoft 30.82 Facebook 18.06 Monster 58.94
Stock is going up!
Please post data for charts so we can believe it!
Quote from: Still on Sep 03, 02:15 PM 2012
Skakus 1870 JohnLegend 2012 Google 685.09 Microsoft 30.82 Facebook 18.06 Monster 58.94
Stock is going up!
Please post data for charts so we can believe it!
LOL!
More data @ 6000 spins. :thumbsup:
I just noticed I had the same glitch JL had where the current bank balance didn't reflect some of the bets. I either had 2 programs running or had the results file open while playing or both. I'm not sure, but it did mess up the betting ledger a bit.
I'll be careful not to let that happen again, and god knows how many times it's happened before without me noticing.
Anyway as long as the W/L registry is in tact I don't mind about the bank so much.
Won a few then lost another session of -108 units but the z-score is up to 4.11
5578 EC bets.
2869 wins.
+160 flat bet.
4.23 z-score. 8)
Even if my flat betting lost at the house edge from here I would still be a little in front at 10,000 spins. :thumbsup:
Impressive stuff
keep it up skakus
Quote from: Skakus on Sep 04, 09:21 PM 2012
5578 EC bets.
2869 wins.
+160 flat bet.
4.23 z-score.
I'm still going, but I've struggled for the last 500 or so spins. Virtually not made any headway at all, but Bayes' rng hasn't got the better of me either.
As you can see I've only made 2 units flat betting for the last 546 spins!
6124 EC bets.
3153 wins.
+162 flat bet.
4.29 z-score.
EC Money bankroll stands at +1938 units
Update:
6186 bets.
+184
z-score 4.54
By the way I'm playing this all over the place, with real money as well, not just here in the challenge.
It's like the friggin' Hulk, it's smashing everything! :thumbsup:
Skakus,fantastic results !!
All your work on this forum helps to build a PROFIT portfolio.
Many Thanks ( to date )
Dino.
QuoteIt's like the friggin' Hulk, it's smashing everything!
Can the z score make 5? come on, we're pulling for ya
Where's the "LIKE" button when you need one?
:thumbsup:
Quote from: Maui13 on Sep 14, 02:58 AM 2012
Where's the "LIKE" button when you need one?
:thumbsup:
The famous Facebook button :twisted:
Quote from: superman on Sep 14, 02:54 AM 2012
Can the z score make 5? come on, we're pulling for ya
4.6 and rising.