.
Nevermind. I won't be able to discuss this system if I need to keep waiting for a mod to approve my posts.
It's on VLS if anyone is curious.
To add to this, I think that a good way to play this would be to play a Fibonacci progression on D1 while it's alternating, and to switch to flat betting D2 when it's streaking.
Any questions??? ;D
Not sure what this is all about?
Confused.... please enligthen us... ^^
Every time I make a post I need to wait for a moderator to approve it first.. Well, not anymore at least haha! Well in that case I'll share it now, I'll just copy it over.
What if there's a way to play 2 exact opposite bets at the same time. Opposite meaning while the one is winning, the other one is losing (sounds like EC bets, doesn't it?).
In Cycle Shift, you bet on 2 dozens. The dozens you bet on is determined by the 8th and 10th dozen prior to the current bet.
Bet selection is simple:
Observe the 8th and 10th dozen prior.
If the dozens are the same, you bet on the other 2 dozens.
(e.g.. 8th dozen: 2, 10th dozen: 2. Bet on dozens 1 and 3)
If the dozens are different, you bet on both those dozens.
(e.g.. 8th dozen: 2, 10th dozen: 3. Bet on dozens 2 and 3)
For the purposes of this system, the number that lands is irrelevant, so simply record the dozens using numbers 1 2 3.
Example:
3
3
1
3
2
1
3
3
3
2
1 < Bet on 1 and 3. Win
3 < Bet on 1 and 2. Lose
2 < Bet on 1 and 2. Win
1 < Bet on 1 and 3. Win
3 < Bet on 2 and 3. Win
etc.
I have to add that at any time you can choose to play the other bet (which is the remaining dozen). In which case you'll win 2 units and risking one, instead of the other way around. So even though this is focused around betting 2 dozens, the single dozen bet is always an option and thus isn't considered a "loss". Instead it's considered a win for the opposite bet.
Attached for your convenience is 1000 spins (generated using random.org). I've tracked the wins in 2 columns. The left column for betting on 2 dozens and the right column for betting on the one remaining dozen.
Scrolling down, you can see right off the bat there are some long win streaks, particularly on the double dozen side. This is what the system is about. Also attached is a line chart explaining (in small scale) what is happening throughout playing the system. As one side starts to win more than is normal (single dozen bets should only win once for every two double dozen wins), it goes further away from the average. The idea is that as it keeps going further and further from the average (zero), at some point the other side will need to win several times in a row to "catch up" and come back to the average. When you see this happen you can really bet on it.
Of course, there are many different ways to play this idea, and this thread is dedicated to brainstorming until we get the best way to play this.
For simplicity, lets call the 2 dozen bet D2 and the 1 dozen bet D1
Some observations of note:
- Mathematically, betting on 2 dozens for 1000 spins would win 666 times on average. In the spreadsheet, D2 wins 673 times. That's 100% correct, it's not supposed to win more than is normal for 2 dozen bets.
- The longest straight win streak for D2 is 17 wins in a row (from 328-344). At that point it dished out 25 wins in 26 spins (from 319-344). [This is the equivalent of a single dozen sleeping for 25 spins, hitting only once in between.]
- The longest win streak for D1 is 5, happening only once. Streaks of 4 wins happens a total of 6 times.
- The most congested part is 123-133, where D1 wins 9 times in 11 spins.
- Mathematically, D1 should win once for every two D2 wins. However, as you'll see, situations where D1 wins almost half of the spins is not uncommon.
- Observe rows 357-406, D1 wins 23 times in 51 spins. Almost half of the spins went to D1, and you can be sure that soon D2 is going to dish out a long streak to make up for it.
- This happens again at 480-529, again at 613-629, and at 870-888. Smaller examples exist throughout the spreadsheet.
Psilocyx.
Attached here is a 5'000 spin sample. I think this is large enough for us to be able to get some accurate statistics that will help us determine the best times to play and possible progressions.
I really don't think we should discount the D1 bet simply because it seems to win less. D1 is only supposed to win a third of the time (which it does). But some times it will win about half of the spins. Can you imagine playing a single dozen bet and win half of the spins?
P
I scrolled through 500 spins and could not find a single "L". At some point you're going to bet dozen A and B and C will hit.
No??
Sam
Quote from: TwoCatSam on Jul 25, 07:03 AM 2012
P
I scrolled through 500 spins and could not find a single "L". At some point you're going to bet dozen A and B and C will hit.
No??
Sam
Yes, a W on the other side is an L on the side you're betting on, that's obvious ;).
The point is betting on the side that's winning, while it's winning.
********The point is betting on the side that's winning, while it's winning.***********
I"ll study your chart more.
The above is the answer to all quests.
Sam
Quote from: TwoCatSam on Jul 25, 11:24 AM 2012
********The point is betting on the side that's winning, while it's winning.***********
I"ll study your chart more.
The above is the answer to all quests.
Sam
We all quest to find an ultimate answer but we all need to understand a question first :D
Here is my question:
We all know the run from hell is coming. If it weren't, well............
How do we either acomodate the RFH or dodge it completely?
".........that is the question."
Sam
When the run from hell comes, simply switch to betting the winning side.
P
Let's see you do it with success.
It is easy to say, "just_______________". It's a lot harder to do it.
Not being mean, negative, or critical--I just know what you say to do is very hard to do. I'd like to see some examples.
Sam
Quote from: TwoCatSam on Jul 25, 01:26 PM 2012
P
Let's see you do it with success.
It is easy to say, "just_______________". It's a lot harder to do it.
Not being mean, negative, or critical--I just know what you say to do is very hard to do. I'd like to see some examples.
Sam
My 2 cents worth. It can't be done!
All we can do is set a trigger to jump from one to the other. It's like betting R and B. If you just bet R today, it may be the day when B is running strong. So you either take it in the shorts or you say, "Dang, B's killing me. I think I'll jump over to B." Then as soon as you start betting B, R starts hitting the most and you're still on the losing side. So you jump back over to R and now B comes to the forefront again. We're all familiar with the concept.
If you can figure out a foolproof way of doing it here, the same idea should work on all bets and we can close down the forum except for posting who's winning the most, and head for Monte Carlo. We'll rent a suite together, and start playing in shifts around the clock. Once we close down Monte Carlo, we can head for the Bellagio in Vegas, they Tomla021 a wheel barrow full of black chips. As you can tell, I'm prone to flights of fantasy.
George,
You hit the proverbial nail on the proverbial head with the proverbial hammer.
101 and windy here.
Sam
High 90s and threatening rain here.
Do you have to drink water or can you just breath and get enough moisture?
George
Threatening rain?? Rain could not threaten us here. We'd throw it a party if we thought it was coming.
No, the humidity is not bad. Too windy.
We are in a world of hurt, though, as is much of the country.
Sam
Quote from: GLC on Jul 25, 02:50 PM 2012
My 2 cents worth. It can't be done!
All we can do is set a trigger to jump from one to the other. It's like betting R and B. If you just bet R today, it may be the day when B is running strong. So you either take it in the shorts or you say, "Dang, B's killing me. I think I'll jump over to B." Then as soon as you start betting B, R starts hitting the most and you're still on the losing side. So you jump back over to R and now B comes to the forefront again. We're all familiar with the concept.
Have you seen the spreadsheet? This is far different from betting on EC streaks.
If a single dozen wins 15 out of 30 spins, that's far better than betting on red or black since you're getting 3:1 on your bet.
If a single dozen is sleeping for 25 spins, flat betting on the repeating two dozens is obviously a good bet.
Tracking dozens in this way creates longer sleepers and repeaters more often than simply tracking dozens 1 2 and 3.George I know you'd be able to do something great with this if you'd give it a fraction more thought than blowing it off as something you've seen over and over. I know you've seen it all, what I'm saying is this is different, so please look a little closer?
Quote from: TwoCatSam on Jul 25, 07:21 PM 2012
George
Threatening rain?? Rain could not threaten us here. We'd throw it a party if we thought it was coming.
No, the humidity is not bad. Too windy.
We are in a world of hurt, though, as is much of the country.
Sam
You're right Sam. Living in the desert, we tend to forget when the rest of the country's having little or no rain that it's a major catastrophe. For us, it's what we live with. I remember some of the droughts in OK when I was growing up. It can be devastating.
Dry ground and wind. Sounds like the ingredients for a dust bowl.
Believe me Sam. We're praying for you guys, and not just OK but all across the country. I haven't been that much of a believer in global warming, but it's getting harder and harder to hold that position.
George
Quote from: Psilocyx on Jul 25, 09:25 PM 2012
Have you seen the spreadsheet? This is far different from betting on EC streaks.
If a single dozen wins 15 out of 30 spins, that's far better than betting on red or black since you're getting 3:1 on your bet.
If a single dozen is sleeping for 25 spins, flat betting on the repeating two dozens is obviously a good bet. Tracking dozens in this way creates longer sleepers and repeaters more often than simply tracking dozens 1 2 and 3.
George I know you'd be able to do something great with this if you'd give it a fraction more thought than blowing it off as something you've seen over and over. I know you've seen it all, what I'm saying is this is different, so please look a little closer?
Psilocyx, don't take what I wrote as an attack against yourself. It's not intended to be. And if anything, I don't want to discourage others from looking into this in more depth.
Okay, I will admit that I haven't taken time to investigate your idea in depth. I don't have a lot of extra time and I'm always having more and more ideas of my own that take most of my free time.
I admit most of my ideas fizzle out after a while so don't put too much stock in my opinions.
I can't say that I am going to spend a great amount of time with your system yet. If we start getting someone posting some exiting numbers using your method, believe me, you'll have more interest than you can handle.
I hope you're right about your idea. We already know how to use good discipline and money management to justify risking some chips on roulette. If this is better than what we have so far, we'll be all over your idea like stink on you know what.
Thanks George I appreciate that :).
-
I received a private message asking me to explain the method in a little more detail. My response will be posted in this thread a little later, as I think it will be useful in making the idea clearer for more people.
(Too bad you can't access sent PMs, but it's fine ^^)
Here's my response to the PM, hopefully it makes things a bit clearer:
I'll try to break it down for you to it's most basic form. You're using 2 numbers from from previous spins to determine a bet selection. 2 specific previous numbers tell you what to bet on. These 2 numbers can actually be any 2 numbers, like 5 spins and 6 spins back, or the last 2 spins, or 20 and 21 spins back. It doesn't really matter as long as they are the same for the whole session.
You're going to bet 2 different dozens every time you bet, but it's STILL a 2 dozen bet, and because you're tracking the same numbers, it will always win 2 out of 3 times (in the long run). This is ALMOST the same as betting dozen 1 and 2 over and over and over because in the long run you will win 2 out of 3 times. The main difference is that instead of just tracking 3 individual dozens, you're actually tracking a cycle.
Because dozens 1 2 and 3 will always be random, there will not be so many repeats of a dozen, or a dozen will not sleep that long very often. It takes hundreds, or thousands of spins for a dozen to sleep longer than 15+ spins.
When you're tracking a cycle instead of dozens, you get (for whatever reason) longer streaks of "repeats" and longer "sleepers". That doesn't mean a dozen is sleeping, but it means that the current spins are more inclined to repeat the numbers that you're tracking. In this way a "double dozen bet" can repeat for over 15+ spins several times in only a couple hundred spins, without there actually being sleeping dozens.
This doesn't mean that the double dozen bet will win more than is normal! This is and will always be impossible, as everyone knows.
-
If anyone has questions please ask :).
I'm sure people are getting sick of this excuse but I don't have a lot of time on my hands the last while, but I'll be doing some very serious real session testing within the coming days, which will be valuable in this ideas development.
Have a good one.
Hi Psilocyx. . .
Thanks for posting this system.
Your system ties into what I am working on right now and that is alternating events.
Please know that I am not highjacking your thread so if you feel this does not apply, simply delete and I will open a new thread.
I am applying a simplified Marigny de Grilleau bet selection to your spreadsheet results.
Your spreadsheet shows the wins for both the double dozen bet and the single dozen bet.
These wins form a pattern. The patterns are
Singles (W-W-W-W)
Doubles (WW-WW-WW-WW)
Series 3 or More(WWW-WWWW-WWWW-WWW)
The theory is basically that if you have a dominance of Singles and Doubles alternating in the last 10-15 spins that a correction and/or a Series of 3 or more will show up.
The trigger that I used is 9 consecutive spins of ONLY Singles and/or Doubles. On the attached spreadsheet I have highlighted these triggers in green.
The Bet Selection is to bet the opposite of the last and is shown in blue.
Only 41 bets made in the 5000 spins, however, ALL of them WON.
Thanks again for posting as I would not have thought of using the Marigny theory of pattern betting on "even chances" to pattern betting on your "results". . . but then again, both are random events . . . . Nick
Thanks Nick something like this was exactly what I had in mind when posting this! It's not hi-jacking at all, it's very useful!
I think the main reason that the triggers are so far apart is because one side will only win a third of the time, so the specific patterns you're betting on will happen rarely. That's actually what makes it work, because you're basically waiting for the situations when the single dozen bet is winning half of the time. It makes the double dozen bet sooo likely to win when you actually place the bet. I think it would be a good idea to make it only a 3 step progression, but it seems like it's more than good enough.
This is a very good place to begin. We just need to figure out how to possibly increase the triggers with minimal risk increase.
Thanks again, I'll be thinking more about this too! ;D
Quote from: Psilocyx on Jul 26, 09:29 AM 2012
Here's my response to the PM, hopefully it makes things a bit clearer:
I'll try to break it down for you to it's most basic form. You're using 2 numbers from from previous spins to determine a bet selection. 2 specific previous numbers tell you what to bet on. These 2 numbers can actually be any 2 numbers, like 5 spins and 6 spins back, or the last 2 spins, or 20 and 21 spins back. It doesn't really matter as long as they are the same for the whole session. This I understand.
You're going to bet 2 different dozens every time you bet, but it's STILL a 2 dozen bet, and because you're tracking the same numbers, it will always win 2 out of 3 times (in the long run). This is ALMOST the same as betting dozen 1 and 2 over and over and over because in the long run you will win 2 out of 3 times. The main difference is that instead of just tracking 3 individual dozens, you're actually tracking a cycle. This doesn't make sense to me. Please break it down and give a simple example or 2.
Because dozens 1 2 and 3 will always be random, there will not be so many repeats of a dozen, or a dozen will not sleep that long very often. It takes hundreds, or thousands of spins for a dozen to sleep longer than 15+ spins. Maybe will understand this better after you clarify the above paragraph.
When you're tracking a cycle instead of dozens, you get (for whatever reason) longer streaks of "repeats" and longer "sleepers". That doesn't mean a dozen is sleeping, but it means that the current spins are more inclined to repeat the numbers that you're tracking. In this way a "double dozen bet" can repeat for over 15+ spins several times in only a couple hundred spins, without there actually being sleeping dozens.
This doesn't mean that the double dozen bet will win more than is normal! This is and will always be impossible, as everyone knows.
-
If anyone has questions please ask :) .
I'm sure people are getting sick of this excuse but I don't have a lot of time on my hands the last while, but I'll be doing some very serious real session testing within the coming days, which will be valuable in this ideas development.
Have a good one.
Ok I'll try to explain why I think this works George. Just tell me if it doesn't make sense.
Let's first look at EC bets:
An EC bet has 50% chance of winning. That's kind of like saying it's a coin flip, because it's 50/50, either one or the other. The main difference is instead of 2 outcomes, there are actually 36 options divided into 2 possible outcomes (ie red or black).
I think we'd all agree that flipping a coin over and over, you probably wouldn't get as long streaks of one side simply because there's only 2 sides. Yet, we constantly see very long streaks of red or black. I think it's because each time it spins it has 18 chances to land on a specific colour, and even though it's still 50/50, it allows for much longer streaks simply because of more possibilities.
So even though it's a 1:2 bet, realistically it's a 18:36 bet.
So how is CS different from simply betting on dozens?
When betting on a double dozen there are only three different bets:
1 2
1 3
2 3
Whatever you bet on, it's a 2:3 bet. However when you're betting that one of two previous numbers will repeat, while there's still only 3 different ways to bet, there are now more possibilities. Let's list them:
1 2 - 1 2
1 3 - 1 3
2 3 - 2 3
1 1 - 2 3
2 2 - 1 3
3 3 - 1 2
Whatever you bet on, it's still a 2:3 bet, but because of the bet's dependence on the previous spins, realistically it's now a 6:9 bet. I believe this is why it allows for longer streaks, sooner.
Does it make sense now?
I believe this concept can be used in other bets too to in a sense "create more possibilities", but for now I think it's good in dozens.
I was trying yesterday, just a few sessions, won a few chips. The thought repeating numbers do not have to be just a number bet, it has bearing on all other bets, I have discovered long time ago.
If you see three repeaters, which can be put in one bet, Let they be RED, in the same street or what ever, then if you believe repeaters work, start betting the bet which cover many repeaters.
Quote from: Psilocyx on Jul 27, 01:24 AM 2012
Ok I'll try to explain why I think this works George. Just tell me if it doesn't make sense.
Let's first look at EC bets:
An EC bet has 50% chance of winning. That's kind of like saying it's a coin flip, because it's 50/50, either one or the other. The main difference is instead of 2 outcomes, there are actually 36 options divided into 2 possible outcomes (ie red or black).
I think we'd all agree that flipping a coin over and over, you probably wouldn't get as long streaks of one side simply because there's only 2 sides. Yet, we constantly see very long streaks of red or black. I think it's because each time it spins it has 18 chances to land on a specific colour, and even though it's still 50/50, it allows for much longer streaks simply because of more possibilities.
So even though it's a 1:2 bet, realistically it's a 18:36 bet.
So how is CS different from simply betting on dozens?
When betting on a double dozen there are only three different bets:
1 2
1 3
2 3
Whatever you bet on, it's a 2:3 bet. However when you're betting that one of two previous numbers will repeat, while there's still only 3 different ways to bet, there are now more possibilities. Let's list them:
1 2 - 1 21 3 - 1 32 3 - 2 31 1 - 2 32 2 - 1 33 3 - 1 2 Help me understand this chart, please.Whatever you bet on, it's still a 2:3 bet, but because of the bet's dependence on the previous spins, realistically it's now a 6:9 bet. I believe this is why it allows for longer streaks, sooner.
Why isn't this a 24:36 bet?
Does it make sense now?I believe this concept can be used in other bets too to in a sense "create more possibilities", but for now I think it's good in dozens.
The chart is simple, you're betting that the 2 numbers you're tracking will repeat, or if they're the same, that it won't repeat. After making the chart, I actually believe that this is a 18:27 bet, because there are 3 different possible outcomes to the 9 different betting "options"
Colour coded to make things clearer. Blue represents a win for the double dozen bet, red represents a win for the single dozen bet. The space represents the bet you placed.
18 blue = 18:27 (2:3)
9 red = 9:27 (1:3)
11 1
11 2
11 3
12 1
12 2
12 3
13 1
13 2
13 3
21 1
21 2
21 3
22 1
22 2
22 3
23 1
23 2
23 3
31 1
31 2
31 3
32 1
32 2
32 3
33 1
33 2
33 3
This has certainly made it clear for me why we're getting these long winning streaks. What do you think George?
Edit: In retrospect, 18:27 doesn't sound better than 24:36, but I don't think it's 18:27 instead of 24:36, but rather a 24:36 chance for a 18:27 bet. If that makes sense? Help me figure it out but I'm sure visualizing this chart helps you to understand more about the mechanics?
I see...
Where is the marigny theory in this?
Cheers
:yawn:
I don't really know much about Marginy, Nickmsi brought it up. It seems to work but I don't have much to say about that just yet...
Hello Psylocyx!
Can you explain your method on example this numbers
17 24 34 15 22 30 34 5 29 0 30 13 21 23 1 8 15 15 11 21 3 19 10 9 1 33 2 10 17
8 17 36 33 27 6 2 20 25 31 32 36 20 26 9 00 4 30 20 24 11 33 5 15 16 6 3 16 00 16Thanks.
Quote from: donik7777 on Jul 27, 06:35 PM 2012
Hello Psylocyx!
Can you explain your method on example this numbers
17 24 34 15 22 30 34 5 29 0 30 13 21 23 1 8 15 15 11 21 3 19 10 9 1 33 2 10 17
8 17 36 33 27 6 2 20 25 31 32 36 20 26 9 00 4 30 20 24 11 33 5 15 16 6 3 16 00 16Thanks.
Attached is the spreadsheet and how I'd play it. Not all games would go this good but this is the main idea. Hope it helps :).
Did you win every bet, no lost?
:ooh:
Quote from: donik7777 on Jul 28, 11:36 PM 2012
Did you win every bet, no lost?
:ooh:
No no, it's a loss of 2 units every time it landed on the single dozen side or 0.