I have decided EGO is a chicken heel!

[Skakus]

 


link:://:.youtube.com/watch?v=UduuxKdPt9Q#

[Steve]

between 1970 and 1990... the world lost its sense of fashion. no it is was more than loss of fashion sense. something I dont understand. something we'd all rather forget. but people like skakus have a habit of opening old wounds

[Skakus]

between 1970 and 1990... the world lost its sense of fashion. no it is was more than loss of fashion sense. something I don't understand. something we'd all rather forget. but people like skakus have a habit of opening old wounds

[albertojonas]

aj

I'd love to be taught by anyone!  You're a smart person.  You tell me............

X (2 3)
X (5 6)

Where it could be:

XXX
XOX

The above are six spins.  You tell me why 2 and 5 or 3 and 6 either have a greater or lessor chance of being the same/different.

aj, I sincerely want to be taught that!

A TwoCat Proclamation:  Nothing is due.  Wait!  Didn't someone just say that??

Sam

Ok I will try.
I assume you are talking about the thread "One cycle is c... time line"


Cycle:
-On an EC is two spins.
-Inside single numbers 37 spins (French Roulette).
-etc...


What ego proposes is observing clusters of 3 spins regarding a chosen EC. Taking the 1st spin of the cluster as a reference point and notating whether the current spin is either same ('X') or different ('O'),
four distinct formations are possible:
XXX | XXO | XOO | XOX


The probabilistic analogie is a dice with four sides: - Tetrahedron


[attachimg=1]


[attachimg=2]


The famous "Gambler's Fallacy" discussion will dictate on one side that each and every event is independent and correlation has no measurable effect. On the other side we may advocate that mathematical logic and laws have a finite descriptive ability regarding real events and that developments in physics and other areas constantly challenge that ability. "60 reds in a row?"
I will not discuss this, despite i find obvious that in the long run everything tends to balance out.


What will be most commonly observed is the most probable event, thus the assumption that after a cycle of perfect balance with the four possible formations showing in a row, the same will not happen immediately after.


Developing a playing model from this observation is other matter, and should be backed up with statistical data rather than probabilistic assumptions.


Best regards.
AL

[TwoCatSam]

AL

I truly thank you for that explanation.  (I keep hearing "Occam's Razor")  I will print it out, study on it and get back sometime later.

Sam

[TwoCatSam]

AL

I see where you posted this on ego's thread.  Look at the post just above it.

I know people do the best they can do when English is not their first language and I try to never mention that--but--I've tried and tried and I don't understand that post. 

Could you clarify that please?  About having to hit six to create four, or something.

Sam

[albertojonas]

Sam,


We have our dice with four sides with all the possible outcomes: 4*4*4*4 = 256

The probabilities of the event:


1) Four Different sides in a row

4*3*2*1 = 24
P= 24/256

2) Four Same sides in a row

4*1*1*1 = 4
P = 4/256
_______________________________________________________________
Now you choose what event you want to play against.
In the first case you have to place a maximum of 4 bets to try and avoid the Four Different sides in a row.
In the second case you have to place a maximum of 6 bets to try and avoid Four Same sides in a row.

[albertojonas]

Example bet (not playing model) for the first option: "Bet against Four Different Sides in a Row"

xOO
xXO - x Bet O (same as above) L
xXX - xX Bet O (same as the previous known formation) L
xXX - x Bet against the missing formation XOX so the bet will be 2 attempts x X O
      ... what happens is that a win happens on first attempt.   

Attached an example played reseting the cycle once a win is found and taking the last formation as the first for the new cycle.
I believe once grasped the betting behavior for this option it will be very easy to explore the second option too.

Cheers,
AL

[TwoCatSam]

xOO
xXO - x Bet O (same as above) L
xXX - xX Bet O (same as the previous known formation) L
xXX - x Bet against the missing formation XOX so the bet will be 2 attempts x X O
      ... what happens is that a win happens on first attempt.   

AL

I'm sorry for my lack of understanding. 

xOO...........do we bet now?  And for what?

or

xOO
xXO.....do we bet now?  And for what?

Why are some capital and some small?

If you would quote and use red next to my questions, it would sure help.

Sam

[TwoCatSam]

alberto

I think I have figured out one part.  Assuming a four-sided dice.........

You toss and get a 2.  If you are wanting four of the same, 2 2 2 2 , you always have three, 1 3 4, pulling against you.  Every throw.


But if you want four different and toss a 2, you have three pulling for you..1 3 4.  Your next chance of hitting a different number is 3 to 1.


If you toss again  and hit a 1, you have 1 and 2 so 3 and 4 are for you.  1 and 2 are against you.

Finally you have three out of four and the fourth is the only one left for you.  Three are out to ruin your day!

If that much is correct, I'm on my way to understanding it.  Not necessarily agreeing with it.......

Sam

[albertojonas]

xOO
xXO - x Bet O (same as above) L
xXX - xX Bet O (same as the previous known formation) L
xXX - x Bet against the missing formation XOX so the bet will be 2 attempts x X O
      ... what happens is that a win happens on first attempt.   

AL

I'm sorry for my lack of understanding. 

xOO...........do we bet now?  And for what? You do not bet now, this is the first formation. You wait for the next formation and bet that one will repeat this one. It can be xOO or xOX, you will win the same.

or

xOO
xXO.....do we bet now?  And for what?

xOO
x ----> bet now that the pattern/formation above will repeat. Bet O, if lose wait for next cluster.

or with colors

RBB
R ---> bet Black...
...
RBB
B ---> bet Red
:::::::
BRR
B ---> bet Red
...
BRR
R ---> bet Black

the above cases mean all the same initial
xOO
x


This is the advantage of using the symbols, it may seem complicated first, but it ends up simplifying by reducing cases.
_____________________________________________________________________________

So we lost the first bet...
xOO
xXO
x --->we still have to wait for the next spin in order for it to be X or O. Whichever it will be it will form either xX or xO and configure a partial match with one of the two patterns/formations above it xOO and XXO.
Lets suppose next spin is X, we got
xOO
xXO
xX ---> we bet now for a repeat of the previous known pattern/formation above which is xXO, so we bet O
if another X comes out, we have 3 different patterns/formations in a row, like 3 sides out of our 4 sided dice.
xOO
xXO
xXX
x ---> from this stage we have to place 2 bets to ensure the 4th side will not show up, the missing one: xOX. So we will bet against this missing side/pattern/formation. Bet X then if lost, O. If you lose all 4 bets
you have the four sides showing in a row.

Hope this helps.


1."Why are some capital and some small?"


X and O are Simbols for Same and Other.
the lowercase x means that at the beginning you always put x regardless of previous cluster of 3 spins, because this is the one the others refer to, like a pivot. As i mentioned before:
"What ego proposes is observing clusters of 3 spins regarding a chosen EC. Taking the 1st spin of the cluster as a reference point and notating whether the current spin is either same ('X') or different ('O'),four distinct formations are possible:
XXX | XXO | XOO | XOX"

If we were to take colors per example, we would have eight possibilities not four.
RRR
RBB
RBR
RRB
BBB
BRR
BRB
BBR
___________________________________________________

Cheers,
AL

[albertojonas]

alberto

I think I have figured out one part.  Assuming a four-sided dice.........

You toss and get a 2.  If you are wanting four of the same, 2 2 2 2 , you always have three, 1 3 4, pulling against you.  Every throw.
We do not want 4 of the same, we play against it to happen in a row.

But if you want four different and toss a 2, you have three pulling for you..1 3 4.  Your next chance of hitting a different number is 3 to 1.
That is the logical choice =)

If you toss again  and hit a 1, you have 1 and 2 so 3 and 4 are for you.  1 and 2 are against you. It is the opposite.
With the dice that would be ok, but each toss of the dice represents 3 spins in roulette.
Finally you have three out of four and the fourth is the only one left for you.  Three are out to ruin your day!
...
If that much is correct, I'm on my way to understanding it.  Not necessarily agreeing with it.......

Sam

[TwoCatSam]

AL

Thank you!  That totally explains it.  I have saved that to disk for future study while sitting beneath an oak tree drinking rum and coke and smoking a cigar!

I am beginning to see the logic in the whole procedure.

I'll leave you be now, but I'll just bet you helped a lot of other folks as well as me.

Sam

[albertojonas]

You are very welcome Sam.
I remember your stress with some virus with a bot. Take it easy.  
It feels good to overcome language barrier.
Sometimes Ego's posts assume you do your homework and some investigation on your own. I often struggled with it and got frustrated and tried again. Once i got it, i re-read it again and it all sums up fine. At least most of the time. 

Ego is not a chicken heel!... 

[Ralph]

You are very welcome Sam.
I remember your stress with some virus with a bot. Take it easy.  
It feels good to overcome language barrier.
Sometimes Ego's posts assume you do your homework and some investigation on your own. I often struggled with it and got frustrated and tried again. Once i got it, i re-read it again and it all sums up fine. At least most of the time. 

Ego is not a chicken heel!... 

What ever EGO is I bet he runs Windows 7, and speak Swedish.