An effort to help some members get out of the worst gambing fallacy

[Ralph]

The numbers will come back, the numbers never ending. All numbers are due.

[Robeenhuut]

Getting back on topic - I'll second that. I thought that was THE gamblers fallacy - that something is due based on past results. I have to say that the truth as I see it is the original 'fallacy' is not fallacy at all. Based on law of large numbers the gamblers belief that something is due is entirely correct. the problem is not knowing when it is due.
As far as testing for thousands of spins etc. Should this be a 'sub-fallacy' or fallacy no 23b or something like that? I'm sure there's prob quite a few more (debatedly) miss-held beliefs....?

Woods

It sure wont hurt if you do flat betting.  Progression is a different story then.  I suggest to use Marigny theories and after a heavy imbalance go for it with a positive progression. Not much to risk but lots to gain   

[amk]

Getting back on topic - I'll second that. I thought that was THE gamblers fallacy - that something is due based on past results. I have to say that the truth as I see it is the original 'fallacy' is not fallacy at all. Based on law of large numbers the gamblers belief that something is due is entirely correct. the problem is not knowing when it is due.
As far as testing for thousands of spins etc. Should this be a 'sub-fallacy' or fallacy no 23b or something like that? I'm sure there's prob quite a few more (debatedly) miss-held beliefs....?

Woods

''Based on law of large numbers the gamblers belief that something is due is entirely correct. the problem is not knowing when it is due.''


Hello again woods101, good to see ya. I agree with your thoughts, except that I would say that the casinos know when something is due, this is why they have made the max bets as is. Let me have a 10 step progression for under $200 on 2 dozens, wouldn't be funny


Sidenotes:


1)Do I think that there are casino promoters on the forum pushing bogus methods? perhaps, if we look at all the scam systems being solid it wouldn't surprise me. Only thing is that they do not know if you are going to play their system at their casino, why bother posting. I would expect them do debunk a winning method though.


2) Concerning creating methods to win in roulette, this is the only way we can get anywhere and it should be fun I believe there are quite a few players who do well.


3) In order for us to be successful we need to just focus on reviewing methods, pointing out their strengths and weaknesses (briefly) and helping to improve them if need be. If players do not think we can win in roulette then it is pointless for them to stay on the forum. Perhaps they are just trying to help (not make us lose money) which is very kind.


4) The threads I enjoy the most are ones which have players posting their live results, even RNG is great. If they can do it there is a chance I can to.


Looking forward to some good threads/methods and posts.


AMK

[woods101]

Hey AMK,

1) Good to see ya likewise. I agree - no table limit = holy grail on a marty gale without fail!

2) Understanding chance would be understanding universe. Like religion - many strands. Like chess illustrates life love and death I think roulette displays chance enigma of the universe as example every min and a half. Not all will ever agree.....er...confucius say.

3) I personally don't think casinos need to try and get more money off you having watched a variety of punters in a casino. Not many seem to bet with any rationality. Personally I don't trust rng but hey- one mans belief is another mans fallacy.

Woods

Woods

[Kimo Li]

Gambler fallacy is just that a fallacy, or is it?

I was testing gambler's fallacy a few days ago with the "dues" using a skip and run technique. I was hitting numbers one after another.  I was amazed.  But, reality sunk in as I was fooled by my own fallacies.  I was using a double zero tracking system and playing with single zero results, but I was winning. I guess if it's not broken, don't fix it.

Just a fool and his experience.

Kimo Li

[Ralph]

Gambler fallacy is just that a fallacy, or is it?

I was testing gambler's fallacy a few days ago with the "dues" using a skip and run technique. I was hitting numbers one after another.  I was amazed.  But, reality sunk in as I was fooled by my own fallacies.  I was using a double zero tracking system and playing with single zero results, but I was winning. I guess if it's not broken, don't fix it.

Just a fool and his experience.

Kimo Li

This technique is to skip the losing bet and bet the winnings?  It works!

[Bayes]

Even the "experts" can't agree what the fallacy actually is. On Wikipedia it says:

is the belief that if deviations from expected behaviour are observed in repeated independent trials of some random process, future deviations in the opposite direction are then more likely.

And on the "Fallacy Files":

A fair gambling device has produced a "run". Therefore, on the next trial of the device, it is less likely than chance to continue the run.

The GF is just a consequence of independent trials and says that given 10 reds in a row, the next outcome is just as likely to be red as black. Well D'uh!

However, independent trials follow distributions and exhibit regular patterns as defined by the laws of probability, which means to that extent they're not independent. GF is about the next spin, not the next sequence of spins. In fact, probability says that given a strong deviation over a certain sequence, the following sequence is more likely to be closer to the average.

Nothing is guaranteed, but past spins do indicate future spins, and that's not a contradiction of GF.

And I disagree with MOP that hit & run is the worst fallacy. In fact it's relatively harmless.

[dino246]

Kimo Li,how do you play this system and what are DUES ?
Cheers.

Dino.

[vladir]

I agree with bayes. Simply hit and run does no warm to anyone... It also does no good at all...
However... if you know when to hit and when to run... that would be another story.

[Ralph]

Run before you lost focus! Do not play too tired or drunk! There are reasons for stop!

[F_LAT_INO]

I agree with bayes. Simply hit and run does no warm to anyone... It also does no good at all...
However... if you know when to hit and when to run... that would be another story.

--Hit at 4am when they counting money and run as fast as you can before police hit......LOL

[malcop]

I just stop playing when I feel it is time for me to exit, with a profit or loss I am happy with, is that hit and run?

I have a rough guide what I would like to make and a definate amount I am prepared to lose in a single session.

Of course I would prefer not to have the loss but that goes with the game.

[Proofreaders2000]

Hit at 4am when they counting money and run as fast as you can before police hit...--F_lat_Ino

Love your sense of humor.  Makes it easy to pick out the winning gamblers on here   

Concerning creating methods to win in roulette, this is the only way we can get anywhere and it should be fun I believe there are quite a few players who do well.--AMK

For me making systems is quite grueling and comes with the mindset "as if your family depends on your systems".   Not that you would ever gamble for your livelyhood--you never know.

[Timo]

Gambler fallacy is just that a fallacy, or is it?

I was testing gambler's fallacy a few days ago with the "dues" using a skip and run technique. I was hitting numbers one after another.  I was amazed.  But, reality sunk in as I was fooled by my own fallacies.  I was using a double zero tracking system and playing with single zero results, but I was winning. I guess if it's not broken, don't fix it.

Just a fool and his experience.

Kimo Li


Hello Kimo! I dont doubt of it, you have beat up roulette once and for all! And its amazing! =) There is no question about that.


Regards Timo

[TwoCatSam]

***Nothing is guaranteed, but past spins do indicate future spins, and that's not a contradiction of GF.***

Well, there's some Voodoo for ya!

Sam