An effort to help some members get out of the worst gambing fallacy

[Turner]

Not trying to be a jerk, but I guess I am.......................

I just love to ask unanswerable questions.  Always have.

Just left Savannah, Georgia.  Duke University--which is not known to blow smoke--has determined the city is full of ghosts!

Here's a question:  If a soldier appears as a ghost, why is he dressed?  Are his clothes ghosts, too?

Why are ghosts never naked?  Is it because that would offend our sense of decency?  Why would a ghost care?

I'll shut up for a while...........

Sam

I can feel "does the fridge light go out when you shut the door" about to rear its ugly head

[Bayes]

I would pose another question:  If this wheel who had produced too many reds was shut down for a week, would it still try to equalize once it was re-started?  If so, why?  If not, why not?  How long a memory does the wheel have?

Yes, that does seem to happen. This is the idea of 'personal permanence', and is another reason why hit & run, stop losses, etc are fallacies. If you have a sequence of only 30 reds in 100 spins, you could leave the casino and come back the next month to play another 100 spins on a DIFFERENT wheel, and you'll get the same results as if you'd stayed the previous month to play the 2nd 100 spins straight after the 1st 100 (and on the same wheel). That's what independent trials means, but because 30 reds in 100 is rare, it's less likely to come up again straight away, no matter when or where you play those next 100 spins. No need to invoke any voodoo. 

[Bayes]

I can feel "does the fridge light go out when you shut the door" about to rear its ugly head

Or, 'if a tree falls in the woods and there's no-one there to hear it, does it still make a sound?'

I would say yes, because sound is a wave travelling through space, which happens whether anyone is there or not.

[TwoCatSam]

Promise I'll shut up soon.............

Having worked on refrigerators for 30+ years I can say that there are times when the switch sticks closed and the light does stay on.  The customer complaint is the fridge is warm but the freezer is fine.  How to test?  Open the door and touch the bulb.  Working properly, it will never be hot.  When the switch is stuck, it will burn you.

As to the tree, it does not produce sound.  Sound is defined as vibrations hitting an ear drum--roughly.  It produces a noise if no creature on earth hears it.

Turner

I thought we had some sort of gentleman's agreement to leave each other alone.  Was I mistaken?  You don't like my comments.  Fine.  Don't read them.  I have not commented on one thing you've said as of late and this will be my last.

You don't like me; I don't like you.  'Nuff said!

Sam

[D1]

"What happens when an irresistible force meets an immovable object?" 

Isnt that called constipation 

[Turner]

Promise I'll shut up soon.............

Having worked on refrigerators for 30+ years I can say that there are times when the switch sticks closed and the light does stay on.  The customer complaint is the fridge is warm but the freezer is fine.  How to test?  Open the door and touch the bulb.  Working properly, it will never be hot.  When the switch is stuck, it will burn you.

As to the tree, it does not produce sound.  Sound is defined as vibrations hitting an ear drum--roughly.  It produces a noise if no creature on earth hears it.

Turner

I thought we had some sort of gentleman's agreement to leave each other alone.  Was I mistaken?  You don't like my comments.  Fine.  Don't read them.  I have not commented on one thing you've said as of late and this will be my last.

You don't like me; I don't like you.  'Nuff said!

Sam

Sam
I never said i dont like u at all. Theres no gentlemans agreement from my side. U decided all of it. I really like you. Your funny and clever. I love reading your stuff. I now understand you dont like me...thats fine..
Turner

[Bayes]

"What happens when an irresistible force meets an immovable object?" 
Isnt that called constipation 

Some marriages are like that.

@ Sam,

I think we'll have to agree to disagree on the sound thing. If sound requires both a transmitter and receiver, that would apply to light, too: Light = light generator + eye.  So if (electrically) the light stays on when you close the fridge door (due to a fault), by the same logic, the bulb produces no light!

[Ralph]

When I switch of the light in the kitchen, it moves to the fridge, you can easy check that.

[Turner]

Some marriages are like that.

@ Sam,

I think we'll have to agree to disagree on the sound thing. If sound requires both a transmitter and receiver, that would apply to light, too: Light = light generator + eye.  So if (electrically) the light stays on when you close the fridge door (due to a fault), by the same logic, the bulb produces no light!

The point is that no matter what test you do you cant prove your fridge light is on or off right now. You can only assume it.

[Drazen]

The point is that no matter what test you do you can't prove your fridge light is on or off right now. You can only assume it.

Everything can be proved. Even this. You have to open door just slightly aad gently, about 1cm, to see inside but not to activate light switch.  And for name of test I just tryed it again.  LoL. I proved that when doors of fridge are closed, light is off


Cheers


Drazen

[Turner]

Everything can be proved. Even this. You have to open door just slightly aad gently, about 1cm, to see inside but not to activate light switch.  And for name of test I just tryed it again.  LoL. I proved that when doors of fridge are closed, light is off


Cheers


Drazen

Nope...you proved it goes off then when you looked. that's not proof that as you walked away it didn't come back on
You are assuming that

[Drazen]

Nope...you proved it goes off then when you looked. that's not proof that as you walked away it didn't come back on

If wasn't turned on when  and the way I looked, then also can't turn on when i walk away. Because that would be technicaly impossible. We speak here about facts, physics, electricity, not theorys of conspiracy. They don't exist in fridges LoL


Cheers


Drazen

[Turner]

If wasn't turned on when  and the way I looked, then also can't turn on when i walk away. Because that would be technicaly impossible. We speak here about facts, physics, electricity, not theorys of conspiracy. They don't exist in fridges LoL


Cheers


Drazen

So prove your fridge light is definatly off at a time you wernt near by without assuming anything. The point of the thought experiment is to realise that we assume many things that we cant prove. Like wikipedea is the truth for example

[Drazen]

So prove your fridge light is definatly off at a time you wernt near by without assuming anything. The point of the thought experiment is to realise that we assume many things that we can't prove. Like wikipedea is the truth for example

Lets back to subject. Thanks god at least everything in roulette can be proved.


Cheers


Drazen

[Turner]

Lets back to subject. Thanks God at least everything in roulette can be proved.


Cheers


Drazen

Yeah...cos God doesnt play dice, right Einstein?